Just four teams remain in the hunt for the 2023 AFL Premiership! It’s preliminary final weekend and it all kicks off on Friday night with Collingwood vs GWS at the MCG. As always, we preview the match and provide our expert data tools and best bets below. Good luck to everyone following!
Also, we’re providing previews and expert betting tips for all 2023 AFL Finals matches, so make sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content!
2023 AFL First Preliminary Final Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs GWS
Friday 7:50pm AEST, September 22nd, MCG
The fresher of the two sides in the first preliminary final, Collingwood will be looking to make it to their first Grand Final since 2018 when they lost to West Coast by five points in an absolute heartbreaker.
The Magpies have had a full two weeks off since winning their qualifying final against the Demons in a match where they were holding on for dear life in the dying stages. Some would argue they were fortunate to secure the win due to the Demons horrendous inaccuracy in front of goal, but as the saying goes ‘bad kicking is bad football’.
Not only has the extra week off allowed their players to rest up, it’s also provided the opportunity for superstar Nick Daicos to return from injury. Daicos has missed each of the last four matches since suffering an injury in the Magpies’ loss against the hawks in Round 21, but is reportedly fit and firing and ready to go on Friday night.
Talking of fit and firing, GWS enter the preliminary final as arguably the form team of the competition. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 matches which has seen them make it to the final four for the first time since 2019 when they finished runners up to the Tigers.
The Giants have certainly done it the hard way by having to win two elimination finals on the road to get to this stage, but they’ve shown no signs of fatigue and their confidence seems to be growing with every win.
Most recently, the Giants dominated the Power on enemy turf last weekend. They led the match from wire-to-wire and never looked like losing control. The forward line was their Achilles heel earlier in the campaign when they weren’t travelling as well, but that line was firing on all cylinders against the Power with the likes of Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, and Jake Riccardi combining for eight goals and 16 scores.
Match prediction: These teams met at the MCG in Round 9 this season and it was Collingwood who dominated in a wire-to-wire 65-point win (120-55). However, that was only two months into the Giants playing under the tutelage of Adam Kingsley, and it’s fair to say a lot has changed since then both personnel and structure wise.
Looking even further back, the last time these sides met in the finals was in 2019 when they played out a thrilling preliminary final which saw the Giants upset the Magpies by four points (56-52).
Our computer model has the Magpies getting the chocolates by a comfortably margin (34 points) on Friday night. This is due to the dominant win the Magpies had in Round 9, combined with the fact they’ve won 17 of their last 19 at home.
The Giants certainly have the capabilities of getting a lot closer than that and pushing the Magpies all the way, but with extra rest and 95% of the crowd on their side, expect the home side to win in the 1-39 points range.
Collingwood 1-39
$2.15 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The easiest way to place your Same Game Multi is to click on the BoomBet BetShare banner below! This will add our SGM selections straight into your BoomBet bet slip! You can then enter how much you wish to wager and with one click, your bet has been placed!
Jesse Hogan 2+ Goals – Coming off a big outing against the Power that could’ve been even bigger had he been more accurate. Also has jagged 3+ in each of his last two meetings with the Pies.
Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals – Is a noted big game player and they don’t get much bigger than this. He’s kicked multiple goals in nine of his last 11 outings including 3+ in six of them.
Scott Pendlebury 20+ Disposals – Was quiet in the qualifying final but resumes to his normal role with Nick Daicos back in the side. Expect Pendles to get to at least 20 disposals here.
Stephen Coniglio 25+ Disposals – Has had a super consistent season and continue his hot form with 30 touches and two goals last weekend. He’ll be around the footy all night once again.
SGM Odds: $4.33 at BoomBet
