It’s a top-of-the-table clash under the Marvel Stadium roof as the Pies host the Lions. The Pies have a top 2 spot locked in barring the Pies losing the last 2, the Lions winning the last 2, and the Power winning the last 2 and overcoming a 15.7% differential. The Lions however have a lot to play for here, as a win means their destiny of a home qualifying final would remain in their control.
Ace provides his expert analysis and betting tips for the match below! Also, make sure to check out our AFL page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content.
AFL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Brisbane
Friday 7:50pm AEST, August 18th, Marvel Stadium
The Pies found their way back onto the winners list last week, but it again came at what was a major cost. After losses to Carlton and Hawthorn, the Pies lost Darcy Moore early in their Friday night clash against the Cats, but clicked into gear to overcome Jeremy Cameron’s 7 goal haul to win by just over a kick. Brody Mihocek found his way back into some solid form, and the forward line in general looked more cohesive with Jeremy Howe playing a defensive forward role on Tom Stewart at times. It shapes as an interesting opportunity for a number of Pies players, especially with Jordan De Goey, Moore, Bobby Hill and Nick Daicos waiting in the wings to return at the pointy end of the season.
The Lions got out to a sizeable lead last week at home against the Crows, however it certainly wasn’t a comfortable win in the end, scraping over the line by a goal. Their best looks near on unbeatable at times, however with their best footy there also comes some major lapses. The Crows made the Lions look slow in the last quarter last week, and off the 6 day break and travel, on this Marvel Stadium surface, the Pies will be looking to counterattack consistently.
A lot of water has gone under the bridge since these two met on Easter Thursday, with the Lions winning by 33 points at the GABBA. The Pies went into that one without a main ruckman, with Dan McStay the primary ruckman that night and completely dominated by the big O Oscar McInerney. The venue obviously plays a key role in this one, however as well as Collingwood looked last week after Moore’s injury, himself, Daicos and De Goey out of the team are big losses. Nathan Murphy and Billy Frampton held their own and play a more accountable game at times than Moore, but it will be interesting to see how they fare against Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood, with Charlie Cameron coming off a 6 goal Easter Thursday performance.
I see this one as having a little more pace in it. There is no Moore in the Pies backline, and I imagine that Howe will look to quell the influence of Harris Andrews at the other end. There is more at stake for the Lions here than the Pies, however the head to head odds look about right. With a bit of pace in the game, and more accountability likely for the loose defenders, I am looking for a larger score under the roof.
Total Points Over 170.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
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Hugh McCluggage 25+ Disposals – Covered this in 3 of the last 4, and looks to be enjoying the added responsibility through the middle with the likes of Neale and Dunkley down on their form recently.
Taylor Adams 20+ Disposals – De Goey out means more time available in the middle, and Adams is a key name that stands out as a result.
Jack Ginnivan to kick a goal – Could have kicked 3 last week in 3 quarters as a sub, although displayed some very unselfish play in passing off. Should be able to impact the scoreboard here.
Brody Mihocek to kick 2+ goals – found his way back into form last week, and is enjoying McStay and Howe taking some of the attention away from him. Unlike McStay, Mihocek will see his full game time in the forward line, so his odds appeals moreso here.
SGM Odds: $5.25 at BoomBet
