Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, February 1st.
The Group 3 Chairman's Stakes and Group 3 Manfred Stakes headline a big day of racing in Melbourne, as we continue to welcome back some of the elite level horses!
The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail out 10m, but there is 10-30mm of rain predicted throughout the day so monitor track conditions!
Get all you need to know about every race on the card here!
Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, February 1st
Best Bet: Race 6 - (4) Just Benjamin
Best Value Bet: Race 5 - (4) Castlecomer
(4) Thousand Wishes is a clear on-top pick here. She put two wins together before her last start, where she ran 3rd dropping back from the mile to 1400m. The step back up to the mile today is much better for her and the form out of her past two starts has been franked with Red Heeler winning since. The wet ground shouldn't be an issue and so long as she gets luck from the inside gate, she should be winning. (3) Paint The Town Two has a good second up record and has finished in the top two at six of her eight starts over this distance. She also goes well on wet ground so looks a strong chance, albeit up steeply in class. (5) Necessary did a terrific job to win last start after sitting wide and she gets a big jockey change today, while (6) Hunboshi could be the blowout in the small field. She tends to improve sharply second up from a spell and she relishes soft ground.
(4) Thousand Wishes
$2.20
Another small field and there's two horses I'll be having something on. (2) Ring Of Honour made it two wins from as many starts this prep, with a maiden breakthrough first up at Geelong followed by another good effort at Pakenham last time out. The step up to the mile looks good and his last-start win came on soft ground, so any rain shouldn't be a problem. Luke Nolen jumps off to keep the ride on Cassius, which allows Damien Oliver to jump on. He'll be out the back but Ollie will know what to do. (4) Mr Cancun is the other. Lindsey Smith has his stable flying and this is another horse that's airborne, with two wins and two 2nds from four career starts. I'd say the step back from 1700m to 1600m is a slight negative most times, but Lindsey is different and this horse handled a similar drop back when winning his maiden. He'll handle the wet. Ring Of Honour is $4.80 and Mr Cancun is $4.00 so you can have a unit on both.
Also backing: (2) Ring Of Honour $4.80
A 2400m race with seven runners and three of them are from the Chris Waller stable, which makes things borderline impossible, or at least hard to be confident. I remember when (4) High Bridge was badly out of form not all that long ago that Waller attributed that to the wet tracks (even though he's won six races on soft ground), but anyway the horse is absolutely flying this prep and who knows what he's going to go like on the wet ground if substantial rain arrives. On form, he's the one to beat quite clearly, and this distance suits him better than his two stablemates. The intriguing runner is (2) Home By Midnight. He's out of the Patrick Payne yard and ran a bottler at Caulfield over 2000m last prep. It's probably fair to assume he needed his first three runs for a bit of fitness, but he improved out of sight last start to be beaten a nose. He ran 3rd in an Avondale Cup and 2nd in an Auckland Cup, so he's definitely got credentials at this sort of trip. He's only ever won one race from 19 starts on good ground, but he's got eight wins on wet ground, so he's likely to enjoy the rain. I won't be getting too invested here but equal stakes on High Bridge ($2.20) and Home By Midnight ($6.50) and hope the latter wins.
(2) Home By Midnight
$6.50
Tough race! (5) Diamond Effort could be winning this if she can reproduce her effort behind Pippie first up last prep. She's never won from three starts fresh but her last two efforts when first up have both been good. She is bred to love the wet and her record already suggests she goes well on soft ground so she finds a suitable race with suitable conditions. (10) Lucifer's Reward has bumped into How Womantic twice in her past three starts and that looks to be some seriously hot form. He's not run on soft ground yet so that's the unknown. (6) Sagarra is a value chance in the race. He had no luck last start at Moonee Valley but was racing well prior to that so with a better run in transit he's a chance at double figure odds. (1) Our Luca has two wins from three starts when third up and gets the blinkers on for the first time. In a race with moderate speed, he's also one to include.
I think there's three clear standouts here. (3) Aryaaf won on debut at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day in the G3 Ottawa Stakes, beating Muntaseera, who then went to Sydney and won her next start. Aryaaf was put straight out and has been brought back to run here on her way to the Blue Diamond. She should be pretty forward and she jumped out strongly at Flemington leading into this, so she should prove very hard to beat. (4) Castlecomer also ran during Cup week, where he was well supported to eventually start favourite at the jump. He raced greenly and pulled up shin sore out of the race, so there were obvious excuses. His first jumpout at Flemington was only fair, but it was behind Hanseatic, however his second jumpout was very good indeed. They obviously have an opinion of him an the $9.50 looks good. (5) Rock Of Kryptonite is first up here for Mick Price and Ben Melham, who we saw team up with an impressive winner on Wednesday. He's had the one jumpout leading into this and again, I thought it was terrific. He failed on debut but he did have an excuse. Look for a big run here. We're getting $2.90 Aryaaf, $10 Castlecomer and $7.00 Rock Of Kryptonite. I'll be structuring a book around those three.
Value: (4) Castlecomer $10 & (5) Rock Of Kryptonite $7.00
We see two hugley exciting stayers go against one another here in the form of (2) Aktau and (4) Just Benjamin. Aktau won his Australian debut over the mile at Flemington, where he came from midfield and worked his way through horses to really hit the line strongly and pull clear late. What was interesting about that run was that he ran the 38th fastest 400m-200m split for the meeting, but the 6th fastest final 200m. So he will only continue to get better as he steps up in distance. Just Benjamin was a horror watch for his supporters after being very well backed. He was held up terribly and still last at the 200m mark before charging home to be beaten about a length. I think we might see him a touch closer from barrier 4 today, he might even be in front of Aktau, and if that's the case he could take some pegging back. His final 200m was the 2nd fastest of the entire meeting, a hugely impressive finish. I've got him narrowly on top of his rival.
A small field but a red-hot one at that. (2) Dalasan returns from a spell and out of the three in this race that contested the Guineas, he might be the best suited over 1200m. First up last prep he beat a handy horse called Scales Of Justice on soft ground over 1200m, which looks a pretty good form reference at this point. He should be able to sit a pair ahead of Super Seth from the gate and over this trip, that could be the difference. (1) Super Seth produced a freakish effort to win the Caulfield Guineas last time we saw him. He did win first up last prep over this distance, but it's not his best distance. I dare say they've got bigger targets in mind down the track so I'd be surprised if he was fully wound up for this. That's not to say he won't be fit enough to win, he is undefeated fresh and at this track and distance after all. Barrier 1 with top weight isn't ideal for him and they won't be riding him upside down, so he could be back last the rail. (3) Groundswell is a fascinating runner. He won first up last prep before matching it with Dalasan second up and then running 3rd to Super Seth in the Guineas. Dalasan had his measure last time they met and the other thing is, his jumpout didn't overly impress me. He was under the stick and hard riding to the line. He'll run well but he's low enough odds for mine. (6) Spend did a good job on debut in Sydney, beating True Detective who is a handy horse. They pulled right away from the rest of the field and that was also on a heavy track, so if it does get to that point at least he's ticked the box. Interesting to see how he lines up.
This is a bit of a lottery. (1) Bons Away has had eight starts in Listed company and has finished top two in six of those. He's first up here and he's got two wins and two placings from six starts when fresh. He has form behind the likes of Nature Strip from last prep so despite his wide draw, he should be finishing hard. (3) Miss Leonidas also has form around Nature Strip from last prep and she was last seen winning in Group 2 company over this track and distance. I doubt we'll see her leading here but she's versatile and will be right in the mix. (4) Humma Humma probably doesn't want the rain to come, but she flies fresh, with three wins and a 2nd from four starts when first up. She'll be out the back but there looks terrific speed on up front which will really set it up for her swooping home late. (6) Fine Dane is another that flies fresh, he's undefeated from three attempts when first up from a spell. Whether he's got the class is the issue but the good draw gives him a chance. (8) Superhard will relish the hot speed and he makes his stable debut for Lindsey Smith, which is a scary thought. Watch the market on him.
(6) Fabric was my best bet of the day when she ran first up, but things really didn't work out for her. She was held up at a crucial part of the straight, then had to duck back to the inside and although she finished off well, she was beaten a length on the line. Don't be surprised to see her go forward from the wide gate, and second up she should come on from that first up run. Williams sticks with her and once again she rates very highly. (4) Power Dream is another that will go forward. She just keeps running well; once Paddy Payne gets his horses in form, they quite often stay in form for a while and this is case in point. (10) Polanco is racing well and should again, while (2) Never Again closed off well last start, but Caulfield might not suit.
