Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Boxing Day racing at Caulfield on Tuesday, December 26th.
After surviving a racing-less Christmas Day, we have an eight-race card to look forward to in Melbourne, where the Caulfield track is rated a Good 3 and the rail is out 6m.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 8 Written In Stone EW
Best Value: Race 4 Spirit Of Aquada EW
Race 1
Not a race I want to get heavily involved in to start off with and every horse in this race could win. Very tentatively leaning towards HUNAMOSA here, but I’m concerned by the early betting drift. The horse won two starts back at Kyneton defeating Amadeus, who has since won at Pakenham on Cup day and then ran 2nd at Moonee Valley on Saturday. That form is holding up strongly. Last start Hunamosa ran 2nd over a mile at Pakenham on soft ground, which was a good effort considering all its previous starts on soft ground were failures. My thinking is it will lead here and with the track a Good 3, it could be hard to make ground. If it gets an easy sectional in the small field, it could turn into a sit-sprint and he could steal it from the front. NETHERFIELD comes up favourite but he looks short enough at $2.60 for mine. He comes off a good first up effort when running 2nd at Cranbourne, which was followed with a strong enough win over a mile at Werribee last time out. Steps up sharply in grade here, but he’s up to it given he’s performed well in Group company as a juvenile. My concern is whether he is looking for 2000m+, and if it does turn into a sprint home he could be left a touch flat footed. ANDREA MANTEGNA dropped from 2200m to 1500m last start and was caught without cover. Ran well all things considered, and the step up to 1800m suits so he can bounce back. ELECTRIC FUSION isn’t hopeless – he was only beaten a length by Andrea Mantegna back in August and gets a 5kg weight swing from that race. Put a pen through his last two runs which have both been on soft ground – he can run a bold race on the firm track here at $15.
TIP: Hunamosa
Race 2
Tactics will be interesting here. I can’t see the Waterhouse/Bott runner GOODWOOD ZODIAC handing up the lead with Stephen Baster aboard, but I also think the Laing stable will be keen to lead on THE MIGHTY JROD with just 51.5kg on his back, so we may see this run at a decent clip early. I’ve got no real knock on MY PSYCHIATRIST but I simply can’t take $2.70. She comes off a good run last start behind the in-form Etah James, and it was a good field that contested that race so with the 2400m run under her belt, she should go close. I also can’t take $5 about SERENADE THE STARS who dropped out of that race to finish last, beaten 47L. Clearly had a problem and I can’t back it with any confidence coming off a run like that. That leaves me with the Weir-trained MY NIKITA on top, who bounced back to some semblance of form last time out at Moonee Valley behind the progressive stablemate Last Week. She always needs a few runs to hit her straps so it looks as if she’s ready to win now that she’s at peak fitness. Steps up from 2000m to the 2400m and carries just 52kg after the claim. Expecting a big run at $6. I also think CASTA can run a good race. He also steps up from 2000m to 2400m and comes off a good run behind O’Lonera, who I expected to go close on Saturday before it was scratched. Barrier 1 and Dwayne Dunn is some concern but at each way odds it’s worth including from this stable.
TIP: My Nikita / Casta EW
Race 3
Three main chances I want to be with here. Keen to follow RISING HOPE after she won for us last time out at Bendigo. She was ready to go that day, as her record suggests (starts to peak third up) and with that win under her belt I think she can go on with it. Up in grade to BM70 here, but the booking of Ethan Brown gives her some weight relief. She’ll be closer to the back than the front but once Weir gets these horses fit and in form, they generally hold it. Happy enough with $6.50. WINKELMANN had the blinkers applied for the first time last start and went very close to winning, just being nosed out by Royal Applause, who has since come out and won again. She has a good record at the mile and gets a nice run from barrier 5 so must be a live chance once again here at $6. The interesting thing to note is that Damian Lane rode Winkelmann last start but jumps off to ride RIVER GODDESS for Ellerton and Zahra here, a stable in good form. The horse won well first up over 1400m at Wangaratta, but my concern is her second up record, which reads three starts for zero placings. Has to go in at $9 but I’m just leaning towards the other two because of that.
TIP: Winkelmann / Rising Hope EW
Race 4
This is probably the toughest race of the day. PREVAILING WINDS goes on top after a dominant win last time out at Mornington in a small field. Ethan Brown rode him like the best horse in the race on that occasion and he bolted in to win by 5L. Damian Lane takes over today, and from the good barrier I’d expect similar tactics. He’s only third up here so could even have improved from last start. I think the value is SPIRIT OF AQUADA who comes out of a good race first up at Pakenham behind Bel Sonic. He flew home and was only beaten half-a-length, and we saw Bel Sonic come out on Saturday and win very impressively at Moonee Valley. He’ll get back from barrier 9 but he’ll be motoring home at $9. The one I’m terrified of is Mick Price’s filly SEE ME EXCEED who won in eye-catching style on debut at Bairnsdale, before being put away for a spell straight away. She resumes here and looks to be the big watch in the race. AMERICAN GENIUS, ONE HUNDRED PERCENT and ELITE LEGACY are all chances, while STAR HILLS could be the blowout.
TIP: Prevailing Winds / Spirit Of Aquada EW
Race 5
A couple I like here but BELLA MARTINI is the standout after a big win at the Valley last start. She took enormous improvement from her first up run, just as she did last prep, and really put them away in good style. She may have been assisted by a Moonee Valley track that has been playing heavily to leaders, but her early tactical speed will once again help her on a firm Caulfield surface. Locking in $3. The best roughie may be JOCASTA who put in an enormous run first up at Moonee Valley. She was slow away, settled a long way back, went sideways on the turn and then motored home to run 3rd, beaten less than a length. She draws wide again today and is always sketchy out of the barriers, so she’ll get back once again, but her second up record is good, as is her record at the distance. I’ll be having something on at $10. I will also likely have a saver on FACTS who is first up today and has won both of her previous first up runs. STREETS OF LIBERTY, ALVILDA and ROYAL FASHION others to include.
TIP: Bella Martini / Jocasta EW
Race 6
On current form you’d think PAYROLL would be very hard to beat here but the concern for me is the fact they had her peaking for the Matriarch and the Eclipse Stakes back in November, and were planning on taking her to WA for the Kingston Town Classic. That trip didn’t eventuate and she’s now had 38 days off the track without a trial in between to keep her fit. Therefore, I’m going with COLDSTONE who has now had the four runs back from a spell and is ready to win. He was beaten 4.5L last start by Master Reset, but that was on soft ground and Coldstone is a significantly better horse on firm ground. Happy to take $5 with Williams on from the good gate. The value could be MASTER OF ARTS first up from a spell. Last prep he resumed with a good run first up over 1400m before going close over 1700m second up, so it’s interesting that they target this race first up over 1700m. Something on at $9 isn’t the worst bet. MASTER RESET has a terrible record at the track with just one placing from eight starts so he can go around without me, while JACQUINOT BAY will run his usual honest race.
TIP: Coldstone / Master Of Arts EW
Race 7
Really competitive line up as the market suggests but there’s two I want to play on. OAK DOOR resumes here with two trials under the belt and he has the blinkers back on today. Gets in with a light weight, a good draw and his record at the track is good, so he should go close at $4.60. KEEN ARRAY is the other I’ll be backing. His record at the track and distance is terrific with three wins and a 2nd placing from five starts. The last time he raced at the track and distance he was beaten by Rich Charm, and he then went on to win his next start during Cup week. Importantly, Keen Array carried 60kg in that run, so he should be able to carry the weight today without too many issues. THERMAL CURRENT ran well last start but I expected him to win that. His second up record is much better than his third up record so how much improvement is left? MERRIEST is another that resumes but I’d rather be on her second up. LUCKY LIBERTY is another that can win at his best, but he’s first up off a 220 day break with just the one trial under the belt.
TIP: Oak Door / Keen Array EW
Race 8
I’ve got a clear standout here and he’ll be close to my best bet of the day on an each way basis, and that’s WRITTEN IN STONE. He won very well first up and has since had two incredibly luckless runs at Ballarat and then last start at this track and distance. I think the fields in both those races were better than what he faces today, and he gets a couple of things in his favour today. He comes down in weight and gets the senior jockey going aboard instead of having an apprentice like he has in his past two. Gets a good barrier here, should settle midfield and be charging down the outside if he gets a clear run. I think the $8.50 is a good price, and judging on what’s happened all prep, we may get a better price at the jump. Happy to have a 1x3 each way bet. WILDE GEM is a winner of three from five and comes off a good win at Pakenham. He’s worth something small at a good price. DANE THUNDER has a good first up record and a good record at the distance, so with a good draw and a 3kg claim for in-form Steph Thornton, he can run a good race at double figure odds. TERINDAH not hopeless.
TIP: Written In Stone (Best Bet)
QUADDIE
2, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13
1, 2, 6, 7
1, 2, 4, 5, 7
5, 7, 11, 12, 19
$100 = 16.66%
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