Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, February 22nd.
It's Blue Diamond Stakes Day this Saturday, with three huge Group 1s on the card! The Futurity Stakes, Blue Diamond Stakes and Oakleigh Plate headline a bumper day of racing.
Check out our race-by-race preview and tips for one of Victoria's biggest race days below!
Caulfield Racing Tips: 2020 Blue Diamond Stakes Day
Best Bet: Race 7 - (6) Rulership E/W
Best Value: Race 8 - (15) Pippie
We see a rematch here between two very promising stayers in (7) Just Benjamin and (9) Aktau. I was very keen on Just Benjamin last time they met and thankfully got it right. He was ridden much more aggressively on that occasion and ended up in the lead, though I don't think that's his go, but he proved too good anyway. Aktau finished 0.4L off him in 3d after looking under pressure a long way out. The step up to 2000m probably suits both horses better but the way he finished last start, I think it helps Aktau more. He also gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour. Barrier 1 means he'll need some luck but I'm going to tip him to turn the tables. If there's an upset here I think it will be in the form of (5) Beau Balmain. He finished second last first up but he's better than that. He's had a month between runs but has trialled in between. He tends to improve sharply second up - both career victories to date have come second up from a spell.
Value: (5) Beau Balmain $18
(3) Adelaide Ace gets a much-needed step up in distance to 1800m today, which should suit him down to the ground third up from a spell. Notably, he missed a few days work leading into his last run, but still ran really well behind Microphone. Drawn for a soft run, will be at peak fitness and should take plenty of beating. (6) Rebel Racer only comes off a maiden win at The Valley but he overcome plenty of difficulties in the run to win that race. He's blessed with an enormous amount of ability and he's got a good race in him. (9) Miami Bound returns for the first time since winning the Oaks back in November. First up over 1800m is some query but Danny O'Brien can pull this kind of preparation off. Well-drawn, Ollie goes straight on and she's the one to beat.
Value: (6) Rebel Racer $18
Tricky little race. (4) Groundswell needs to improve sharply on his first up run but he gets blinkers applied for the first time and he gets back onto a firm track, so they might just be the changes he needs. The form out of that race is stronger than anything here so if he can recapture his best, the $7.50 will look pretty good. (6) Express Pass carried a big weight and came from last to get within a nose first up at Flemington. Luke Currie actually chose to jump off Groundswell to ride him so that's a very positive lead. (2) Pandemic is going to need luck from the inside gate. He's a horse that can be slow away and be caught up on the rail.
(4) Groundswell E/W
$7.50
(1) Spanish Reef was more forward first up because she had some market support and ran home in the best final splits of the race, as opposed to last prep when she did very little in her first couple of runs, which Ken Keys called "fat runs". Clearly she's a bit more tuned up this prep and I think with that one run under the belt, she'll be primed to win this. She's won twice before when second up and although she carries top weight, she should be hard to beat with the good draw. (4) My Pendant is ready to win third up. Damien Oliver jumps back on her for the first time since she last won a race, which was third up last prep over this track and distance. $7.00 looks a reasonable price for her.
Value: (4) My Pendant $7.60
(6) Lady Lupino saluted at big odds third up last preparation at Sandown, where she led all the way to beat Chenier. While Chenier may not have been at his best that day, it's clearly a good form line to have given Chenier returned with a 3rd placing to Alligator Blood and Catalyst last weekend. She should find the lead here and could run a cheeky race at each way odds. (7) Score ran an eye-catching race in defeat last start behind How Womantic, which I think is a strong form line. Score ran the fastest final 200m and 400m of the race and if she can settle a touch closer today, she'll be the one flooding home over the top. Wary of (9) Snapdancer first up.
Value: (6) Lady Lupino $11.50
Race 6 - G1 Futurity Stakes (Market)
A small but quality lineup here for the first Group 1 on the card. (8) Super Seth returned to the races with a solid win here over 1200m, and the stable now choose to come to this race and bypass last week's meeting with Alligator Blood and Catalyst. I think that's a smart move, especially given how good the three-year-olds have been against older horses at WFA level this season. He's won four of his five starts at Caulfield and although he's yet to win at 1400m, the step up in distance is bound to suit him. (1) Kolding blew out the cobwebs first up in Sydney behind Standout, which looks to be a very good formline, and it was franked with Alizee coming out and winning the Apollo Stakes last weekend. Kolding won at this distance second up last preparation over subsequent Group 1 winner Fierce Impact. The step up in distance suits him perfectly but the little query with him is the fact he's yet to run the Melbourne way of going. All of his career runs to date have been in Sydney or Queensland. Caulfield can be a tricky track for first time visitors so that's the knock on him. (7) Melody Belle proved to everyone that she's the real deal last prep, winning the Empire Rose Stakes before charging home in defeat to Magic Wand in the Mackinnon. That was over 2000m so 1400m first up is the query, but she's won five of her six starts at the distance. No surprise to see her get the money.
Race 7 - G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (Market)
The day's feature is the Blue Diamond Stakes for the two-year-olds. All the talk is about the favourite (2) Hanseatic, with his regular jockey Luke Currie likely to be ruled out of riding him. I suspect (educated guess) Tim Clark might pick up the ride given he's ridden for Anthony Freedman regularly in Sydney and is in town for the meeting. Hanseatic was already a risk starting from barrier 1, but if Clark is to ride, then we've got a Sydney jockey taking the ride on the favourite from barrier 1 at Caulfield. No doubt this horse will drift on the exchange. I wouldn't be surprised if we got somewhere near $4.00. The horse himself is a beast and deserves favouritism. His win last start where he launched from the back of the field was enormous. Favoured runners have a good record in the race in recent years (the longest priced winner in the last 13 years has been $7.50). If he gets the breaks in the straight, he'll probably win again. I'm in the corner of (6) Rulership, who I think is a great each way bet at $7.00. He led and was run down by Hanseatic last start but Peter Snowden said post-race that he would be a different horse ridden with cover in the grand final. This is a stable that peaks their horses on the right day and the fact he told us to wait and see what he's like when ridden properly is a bit exciting. Barrier 7 looks ideal, his profile for the race looks ideal and he's an each way bet at that price. (12) Muntaseera has a strong SP profile and I expect her to improve sharply with a run under the belt. She didn't get much luck in that race but Damien Oliver goes on today, and he doesn't ride often for this stable. I think she'll be in the finish and probably represents value at $9.00.
Value: (12) Muntaseera $9.00
Race 8 - G1 Oakleigh Plate (Market)
This is a lottery. Again we have a boom three-year-old heading the market in Godolphin colt (3) Bivouac. I'll be taking him on. The last three-year-old to win this race was Starspangledbanner in 2010. He carried 52kg, and the two three-year-olds to win before him carried 53kg and 51.5kg. Bivoauc carries 55.5kg - you have to go back to Redoutes Choice in 2005 for the last three-year-old to carry that sort of weight to victory in this race. Barrier 7 is perfect for him but it's also always a query when these young horses tackle these races first up. At the price I think he's worth betting around. Another three-year-old is (16) Anaheed, which I'd prefer to be with more than Bivouac. She resumed with a comfortable victory here at this track and distance and Peter Snowden said there was more to come with her for this race so she should even improve on that performance. The wide draw is no issue in this race - four of the last five winners have started from double digit barriers - and she carries just 51kg. She's a live chance. The horse I've got on top is (15) Pippie, who also carries a light weight and starts from a wide barrier. She'll put herself right up on the speed for Linda Meech and she flies fresh, with two wins from as many starts. She looks a bet at the each way odds. Outside of those, there's a few at big odds to throw in. (2) Zoutori carries weight and might be better suited in a Newmarket but his first up record is very good and only last prep was he competitive against Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane. That form would see him be competitive. (4) Faatinah might not be Group 1 calibre but he's won six of his eight starts when first up from a spell, so he can't be ignored. (7) Trope shouldn't be underestimated. He'll be a long way back and will need luck, but he's got the ability to win a big race one day. (11) Bold Star is flying and gets in light at the weights; if he's a chance then (12) Halvorsen must be too because he beat him cosily last prep. (13) Humma Humma is a knockout hope and will be out the back somewhere, but she can reel off a big finish when the right tempo is on, and this race isn't short of speed so look for her flashing home late.
Very excited to see (5) Regal Power make his Eastern States debut here. He went to a new level last preparation in the West, highlighted by victory in the G1 Railway Stakes. The little query is he's travelled over and tackles 1800m first up from a spell. He's yet to win from three starts when first up but he's got residual fitness from last campaign and has had two trials to keep him ticking over. Importantly, he remains under the care of Grant and Alana Williams and William Pike comes over to ride him. I think he'll give this a big shake. (4) Kings Will Dream ran a terrific race first up in the Orr Stakes. He'll come on from that and the rise in trip suits. He should be primed third up for whatever he contests. (9) Miss Siska sat wide without cover first up but proved way too good. This is a harder race and her second up record isn't as good as her first up record which is the query.
