Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Wednesday, July 3rd.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Heavy 8 and the rail in the 3m position.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 5 - (4) Judge Judi E/W
Best Value Bet: Race 6 - (14) Perfect Rhyme
(4) Brazilica looks the one to beat. She was an impressive debut winner back in October and then started a well-backed $2.25 favourite in a BM76 won by Roheryn. The query today is the fact she's had eight months off and resumes with just one soft trial under the belt, but she looks the obvious class runner in the race. (2) Koonunga looks the one most likely to challenge her in my opinion. She's run in Saturday grade at Randwick her past two starts, but prior to those she ran 2nd here at Canterbury behind Gododdin. She should be able to run well back in grade.
Five scratchings breaks this race up a bit but we still have four horses on debut. I'll be with the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained (7) Mandela, who has shown a bit at the trials. He had two nice trials back in December but they obviously put him out and brought him back, with his next two trials coming in June. He once again looked good in those trials and importantly, the two trials he's won were both on heavy ground, which is what the track will be today. Barrier 1 could be the only little query. (2) Exceed The Stars looks the logical danger, having returned with a 2nd placing at this track first up. The value is probably the Waller runner (5) Johnny Angel. I reckon his trials have been alright and he's not been asked to do a lot, which is typical of Waller triallers. Jason Collett booked for raceday is a positive.
Probably the toughest race of the day. (1) Starla looks the class runner but it's hard to say when there is six horses on debut. She ran 2nd to Villami on debut and was then well-backed when finishing 5th behind eventual Golden Slipper winner Kiamichi on a Heavy 10. Trialled well and should be hard to beat. The horse that won the trial she ran in was (7) Lola Mae and she makes her debut with blinkers on for the first time. She was pushed out to win that trial and Starla looked to trial better, but she can still be included at double figures. (6) Lady Herbert has trialled well for the Hawkes team and gets in with no weight after the claim for Brock Ryan. (8) Miss Sure Shot and (5) Intuitive are others on debut that shouldn't be dismissed, while (2) Havin' Fun can improve from her debut run and the early betting suggests she will. Won't be getting heavily involved here.
(3) Haut Brion Her is clearly the horse to beat here on exposed form and should be winning if she's anywhere near her best, which her trials suggest she is. She ran 2nd to Zalatte on debut in November before winning over 1400m at her second start. Her two trials have both been good and she finds a pretty weak race first up. (10) Magnolia Power bolted in at Scone two starts ago and then ran 2nd at Kensington last start. Should be competitive once again, while it will be interesting to see how Havin' Fun runs in Race 3, as (4) On Her Word beat her last start. If Havin' Fun wins or runs well, expect some support for On Her Word.
I'll be backing both (4) Judge Judi and (5) Kawaikini here at $6.00 and $6.50 respectively. Judge Judi resumes from a spell and she's run 2nd in all three of her first up runs to date - all three she's been beaten by a nose. She also ran 2nd in both her starts here at Canterbury last prep and was only beaten a head on both occasions. Blake Shinn goes on today which is a strong booking and she should be very competitive. Kawaikini comes into this third up and ready to peak. She's run at Rosehill and Randwick in Saturday grade in her first two runs this prep and drops back to midweek company today. She's placed in all three starts when third up and she's also placed in three of her four starts at this track and distance. (11) Nuke is the current favourite and should go well but he's only won two of his 15 starts. With that said, he's got a good record at the track and distance and ran 2nd to Embracer last start.
A few to highlight here. (5) Attorney is a French import that won first up over 1600m at Newcastle. He won dominantly over 2400m in France so the step up in trip will only help and the heavy ground should pose no problem. (6) Bringagem was beaten a nose over track and distance last start. Drops 2kg in the weights today and has won on heavy ground so must be rated a value chance at $13. (9) Makdanife gets Shinn on and is second up from a seven-week break. Was only fair over 1550m here last start but expect sharp improvement today with that run under the belt. (10) Pop Girl has placed in eight of 11 career starts and ran 2nd to Guise over this track and distance last start. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 16 but is racing very consistently. (14) Perfect Rhyme loves heavy ground and comes off an easy win at Nowra on this surface. Might not be up to this class but the heavy ground really enhances her chances. SHe was Group 3 placed a few seasons back on heavy ground. (16) Milunka gains a run with scratchings. She was well backed to win last start but never got clear in the straight. That race was won by Guise, with Pop Girl and Ulusaba filling the placings. I think she's got their measure so with even luck today, she should prove hard to beat.
(7) Weekend Affair is a bit of a non-winner but gets his chance today. He ran well for 2nd over 1250m here first up before a luckless run when stepping up to this distance last start. He was beaten 2.5L but should have finished much closer than he did. Barrier 1 is again the problem but with any luck he can go close. (3) Silent Explorer gets his final chance with me today. He was poor last start but thrd up today on wet ground, I'll give him another go. He would need to improve pretty significantly though. (10) Any Blinkin' Day has won three from four on heavy ground so include in numbers.
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