We continue our 2024 Brownlow Medal coverage with a look at some of the more Popular Brownlow betting markets. This includes Leader After Round X, Most Votes in the Last 8 Rounds, and the Most 3 Vote Games.
A couple of the best Australian sports betting sites have taken a different stance with some of these markets which has produced a small window of opportunity for us to make a few plays and hopefully our different angle will pay off.
As always, we recommend that you don’t pay touts for any Brownlow content when we provide it all for free! If you have any particular Brownlow requests, just hit us up on X @Before_You_Bet
And you can head to our Brownlow Leaderboard page for a breakdown of our Top 20 contenders and links to votes for every match of every round this season!
2024 Brownlow - Popular Markets
Leader After Round X
One of the more popular betting markets is the “Leader After Round 5/6/10” markets. You just need to keep in mind with these markets that the margins can often be tight which means ties are more likely, which reduces your payout.
All the talk early in the season was with Swan Isaac Heeney who burst out of the blocks with an incredible start to the season. However we have Port Adelaide’s Connor Rozee right in contention after 5 rounds. It really depends which way a couple of games go for Heeney. If you’re looking at the Round 6 market, then Heeney is likely in front as he also polls in Round 6 where Rozee misses.
Heeney looks the clear leader after Round 10/11.
There’s not really any other player in serious contention in this market.
It's hard to get excited about the $1.15-$1.25 on offer for Heeney, but you might be able to use in a multi.
Most Votes Last 8 Rounds
Lachie Neale is the warm favourite in the Last 8 Rounds markets, but there is definitely some value if you want to look elsewhere.
We have Tom Green on the same amount, and granted, we do have Green polling more heavily than most other Brownlow predictions, but it’s not a bad spot to take. Green is under the umpire’s nose doing a power of work in the midfield of the Giants who had a great finish to the season. He could quite easily overpoll so I think his price is value. Nick Daicos is also worth a nibble at the value price.
Lachie Neale - 13.5
Tom Green - 13.5
Nick Daicos - 12.5
Patrick Cripps - 12
Jason Horne-Francis - 11.5
Adam Treloar - 10
We have Green polling in 7 of the last 8 rounds, while Neale polls in just 5.
Also backing: Nick Daicos - $13 at Sportsbet
Tom Green - Most Votes Last 8 Rounds
$15.00
Poll in Most Games
This one looks to be a bit of a coinflip between our two Brownlow favourites - Patrick Cripps and Nick Daicos. We have both polling in potentially 16 games this season.
Patrick Cripps - 16
Nick Daicos - 16
Tom Green - 15
Isaac Heeney - 14
Zach Merrett - 13
Lachie Neale - 12
Zak Butters - 12
Errol Gulden - 12
Jason Horne-Francis - 12
It’s hard to see Tom Green going any higher as we’re probably already leaning his way in a lot of spots, while Isaac Heeney missed several matches. It’s then a bit of a gap to the rest.
If we take a closer look at how Daicos and Cripps polled, we have Daicos with two 0.5 games (Round 6 and 7) which means he’s a chance to poll 1 vote or he could miss completely. He also has another two rounds projected for 1 vote. If we look at the predictions for Cripps, we don’t have him for any 0.5 games, and just one 1 vote game (Round 17) so his volume of polling potential looks more secure.
Patrick Cripps - Poll in Most Games
$2.50
Most 3 Vote Games
We have Lachie Neale with the most clear-cut 3 votes games this season. However if we included the games we’ve projected at 2.5 votes (that is, we can’t split between a 2 vote or 3 vote game) then we have Neale and Nick Daicos both on a potential 8 (indicated in brackets below).
Patrick Cripps has the potential for as many as 7 games with 3 votes, but we’ve only identified 4 of those as clear-cut best afield games.
Neale is clear value in this market, especially as someone with a history of polling extremely well.
Lachie Neale - 7 (8)
Nick Daicos - 6 (8)
Noah Anderson - 5 (5)
Jeremy Cameron - 5 (5)
Patrick Cripps - 4 (7)
Zach Merrett - 4 (4)
Marcus Bontempelli - 4 (5)
Adam Treloar - 4 (5)
Connor Rozee - 4 (4)
Lachie Neale - Most 3 Vote Games
$6.00
