The final round of the NRL begins this week in Brisbane with the Broncos hosting the Storm. The timing of this contest has robbed it of some quality, with both teams opting to take the option to rest players. Nevertheless, the outcome of this game will still have implications for the following week in the Finals. This ensures the game will still be exciting and with plenty of eyes watching, there is a chance to also find a winner.
As always, BeforeYouBet is here to guide you through with a comprehensive look at the action.
NRL Round 27 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm
Suncorp Stadium, Thursday 31st August, 7:50pm (AEST)
Preview
The Broncos were set a tough challenge on the road against the Raiders; already missing halfback Adam Reynolds, it was an emotion-charged match for the home side and they were drawn into a tough contest. The game was in the balance at HT, with scores locked at 16-all and the Broncos finished the better of the two sides, keeping their opponents tryless and producing 3 of their own. They did this on the back of controlling possession (55%), making 500+ more metres, having 9 line breaks and making 613pcm’s. There was a clear difference between a Top 4 team and one contending for the Top 8.
The Storm also made a statement in their 37-16 win against the Titans. With their opponents playing freely, the Storm were forced to produce some special plays which in turn, generated plenty of points. They were strong in the middle, carrying the ball averaging 9.5m per carry, having 8 line breaks and making 615pcm’s. The Storms stars were firing and leading the way, with a sign of what they have to offer in the coming weeks.
Verdict
There is a combined 17 first choice players missing from last week’s matches for either side. While most would argue that this game has been robbed of its quality, an opportunity is provided to an incoming player to prove their worth, especially when it could be needed at a vital stage in coming weeks. The changes have seen the Broncos hold onto favouritism ($1.67 vs $2.25) which is somewhat surprising on several levels. As good as the Broncos have been performing this season, it is a vastly different side to the one which has taken the field for majority of the year. The Storm have named Papenhuyzen at fullback, with a strong set of outside backs promising to be dangerous. The Broncos appear to have an edge in the forwards, which is well supported by the players coming off the bench.
History suggests the Broncos will struggle against the Storm; the visitors have won their past 6 matches against the Broncos, with 4 out of the 6 coming by 28 or more points. Furthermore, the Storm have a 77% strike rate at this ground, well ahead of the Broncos (still very good) 59%. The home side should be motivated by the chance to lock up the Minor Premiership but dropping down to 2nd and hosting the Warriors (over a rematch against the Storm) may have its positives also. Uncertainty around this contest has reduced confidence in the overall result; keep your investment in this game low. There is a slight lean towards taking the Storm to cause an upset, but the ideal option would be to select a line which could be used in favour of the visitors.
Storm +7.5
$1.60 (1 Unit)
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Leg 1: Total Points Over 43.5
Leg 2: Papenhuyzen 1+ Try
Leg 3: Oates 1+ Try
This game should break the relatively low total on offer. Each side can score plenty of points and their recent history indicates as much. Neither try scoring option has a proven record in 2023 as they have missed a lot of matches due to injury. Do not be quick to forget just what they are capable of though; each has a knack of finding their way to the line when given the opportunity.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
