NRL action begins this week with the Broncos hosting the Roosters. These teams are currently experiencing vastly different seasons, but tensions are always high when these two ‘glamour clubs’ face off against one another.
The on-field action promises to be exhilarating and BeforeYouBet is here to take a complete look at this match with the aim of trying to find you a winner.
NRL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters
The Gabba, Thursday 27th July, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Broncos were dominant in their 36-20 victory over the Rabbitohs last week. It was a victory which made a statement to a fellow contender that they are building towards something special at the right time. The message sent to other teams is that the Broncos are the real deal. Overcoming a 14-12 HT deficit, the Broncos scored 4 second half tries, with 3 tries in an 11-minute period blowing their opponents away. Not even 2 sin bins could disrupt their momentum. Statistically, they must produce a better completion rate (65%); their metres and post-contact metres were superior, as were their line breaks. Their defence was strong too, missing just 20 tackles.
The Roosters were also victorious in their match against the Titans, a victory which was desperately needed for a team outside the Top 8. They turned around a poor run of form (winning 1 of their past 5 games) with a dominant first half display. The match was all but over with a 30-nil lead to their name; their 5-try performance in 40 minutes indicated that confidence was returning to this team. While they allowed the Titans to outscore them in the second half, the result was never in danger. Averaging a massive 10.5m per carry, they completed at 80%, had 8 line breaks and easily won the territorial battle. The ability of their opponent probably supported their performance, and they will need to go to another level if they are to compete over 80 minutes in this contest.
Confidence is a key commodity in rugby league and the Roosters will take plenty into this contest after last week. While that is a positive, you cannot get caught up in the Roosters’ performance last week. The Broncos were far better. That isn’t to suggest the Roosters are without a chance; if things click again for them, the Broncos will have to work hard for a victory.
The Broncos are listed as favourites ($1.36 vs $3.20), and they appear to have a stronger pack of forwards which will set a strong platform for this victory. They will also need to overcome two poor records; they have won just 1 out of the past 6 matches against the Roosters and have lost their past 3 at home games against them, with their last victory come back in Round 10, 2019. The statistics suggest they are in the best possible position. The Broncos average 24ppg in attack and limit their opponents to an average of 17ppg. The Roosters are almost opposite; they concede 22ppg in defence and manage just 17ppg in attack, having the second worst attacking record in the competition. It would need to be a complete, 80-minute performance for them to cause an upset and it could be difficult to find value. The Broncos should be able to cover the line (8.5 points) but it is better to play it safe; given there is a slight chance the Roosters could cause an upset, stick with a smaller line and invest a larger amount.
Broncos -4.5
$1.60 (3 Units)
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Broncos to Win – Picking the Broncos to win for the reasons mentioned in the match preview above.
Total Points Over 43.5 – The points margin appears to be too low. The past two Broncos games has seen over 50+ points score, with their opponents scoring above 20 in each game.
Farnworth to Score – Farnworth is the second leading try scorer for his team and coming up against Billy Smith should offer plenty of attacking opportunities which he can take advantage of.
SGM Odds: $4.60 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
