The second of three Sunday games in AFL Round 10 will see reigning premiers, Brisbane, host Melbourne at the Gabba. They are at opposite ends of the ladder coming into this clash and are straightforward win for the Lions is expected by many.
Check out our full preview and betting tips for Lions vs Demons below and if you’re keen to follow our tips, make sure to get your Dabble account up and running!
Brisbane vs Melbourne
Odds: Brisbane $1.17 vs Melbourne $5.00
Match Preview
Brisbane enters the match with a recent record that suggests resilience but also moments of vulnerability. While they secured strong wins against St Kilda (118-73) and Gold Coast (66-49) in Rounds 7 and 8 respectively, a surprising 71-71 draw against North Melbourne in Round 9 highlighted areas for improvement. Their earlier Round 6 loss to Collingwood (53-105) also served as a reminder of the competition's intensity. Despite these fluctuations, the Lions boast impressive season-long statistics, leading the league in clearances with 42.6 per game and particularly dominant in stoppage clearances. Their attacking prowess sees them average 88.2 points per game, sitting 8th overall in the competition for points for.
Melbourne's path has also been uneven through the recent rounds. A tough 56-91 loss to Hawthorn in Round 9 followed a period of solid form which included wins over West Coast (108-76), Richmond (83-63), and Fremantle (107-97). However, a Round 5 defeat to Essendon (57-96) indicated their susceptibility. Statistically, Melbourne's scoring output has been modest this season, ranked 15th with an average of just 73.2 points per game. Their defence has also been leaky, conceding an average of 92.2 points, also ranking them 15th in points against. Despite these team numbers, their strength lies in the ruck, leading the league in hitouts to advantage (15.9 per game), largely thanks to the elite work of Max Gawn.
The recent history between these two powerhouses heavily favours the home side, with Brisbane having won four of their last five meetings. This includes both encounters in 2024, where scores of 86-81 and 82-60 reflected hard-fought contests. While their 2023 clashes were higher scoring (105-104 and 93-82), the overall trend and the teams' current season averages paint a picture of potentially tighter affairs.
Considering the recent scoring trends of both teams, coupled with the fact that each of the Lions last eight games have fallen under the total points line, the evidence points towards a game where goals may be a bit harder than usual to come by. And in a tricky betting game with not much value standings out, taking the unders looks to be the play.
Under 173.5 Points
$1.88 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Brisbane to Win – They have a huge talent advantage and should simply be too good here.
Cam Rayner 2+ Goals – Multiple goals in three of his last five games including three goals last weekend. Remains great value.
Will Ashcroft 25+ Disposals – Averaging well over 30 disposals per game across his past three and will find plenty of it once again.
