AFL 2024 Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane vs Gold Coast
Sunday 7:10pm AEST, 5th May, Gabba
Gold Coast got back on the winners list with a professional performance against West Coast, with the 37 point victory moving the Suns to a 4-3 record and just two points outside of the top eight at the start of Round 8. The Suns head to the Gabba on Sunday night looking for their first win away from home this season, with a perfect opportunity to do it against their struggling rivals.
Brisbane’s season unbelievably continues to get worse, with an uncompetitive performance in a 54 point loss to GWS on Anzac Day. The Lions conceded nine goals to two in what was a second half procession for GWS, with Bribsnae’s defensive efforts coming under serious scrutiny throughout the week.
The Lions have made three changes with Oscar McInerney, Harry Sharp and Bruce Reville coming into the side. Darcy Fort and James Tunstill have been omitted while Callum Ah Chee misses with a hamstring injury.
Gold Coast have recalled Ethan Read and Ben Long, with Bailey Humphrey (managed) and Sam Day (omitted) the changes front the 23 that defeated West Coast.
Brisbane had 87 less disposals than the Giants, yet were out tackled by GWS as 16 Lions players recorded two or less tackles. The lack of pressure saw the Giants waltz inside forward 50 and convert 32.1% of their inside 50’s into goals - well above the league average of 23.1%
Oscar McInerney’s return from concussion is crucial for the Lions, especially after Jarrod Witts’ performance last week. The Gold Coast co-captain recorded 46 hitouts, 18 disposals, 10 clearances, 8 tackles and a goal in an utterly dominant performance. Witts’ ruck dominance saw the Suns gain a +17 clearance advantage, which led to a +32 advantage for inside 50’s.
Both sides have been amongst the best in the competition at clearances with Brisbane ranking first and the Suns ranking 6th. At a short Gabba ground, clearances can lead the opportunities to score, so the quality of clearances particularly in the middle of the ground, will be crucial in this clash.
Match Prediction: Many times we’ve expected Brisbane to bounce back, however the 2023 Grand Finalists have continued to let down more often than not this season. The Lions are 0-3 at the Gabba this season, however the Suns are 0-3 on the road in 2024, so someone is going to have broken a trend by the end of proceedings on Sunday night.
Although the Suns have failed to compete well on the road and against good teams this season, Brisbane haven’t been a good team and the conditions at the Gabba are as similar to Gold Coast as anywhere in the country. Brisbane will be looking to send a statement, but the +13.5 line provides plenty of cover for a Suns side that beat the Lions by 41 points the last time they met.
Gold Coast +13.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Sam Flanders 25+ Disposals: Sam Flanders is in the midst of a breakout season, averaging 29 disposals per game as he thrives under Damien Hardwick. Flanders has hit the 25+ disposal mark in six of his seven games this season and produced returns of 29, 34, 34 and 22 disposals since being moved to half back in Round 4.
Noah Anderson 25+ Disposals: Noah Anderson has been a model of consistency, continuing to improve year on year. Anderson has increased his average disposals from 26 disposals per game in 2023 up to 29 per game in 2024. Anderson has hit the 25+ disposal mark in six of his seven games this season, including four 30+ disposal outings.
Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals: In what has been a challenging season for the Lions, their co-captain continues to show up, with the Brownlow Medalist averaging 26 disposals per game. Neale is a two time Marcus Aschroft medal winner and is averaging 27 disposals per game across his last four QClashes.
Ben King 2+ Goals: Ben King is in red hot form, sitting seventh in the Coleman Medal race with 19 goals from seven games. King has kicked multiple goals in six of his seven games this season, and is currently on a five game streak of kicking two or more goals.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at BoomBet
