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Brisbane vs Geelong Predictions & Tips: AFL Round 6 2024

April 19th 2024, 5:44pm, By: Jack Tobin

AFL Betting Tips

Saturday night football kicks off at the Gabba with a blockbuster clash between Brisbane vs Geelong. The Cats are undefeated, while the Lions will be full of confidence after a dominant win over Melbourne, so this should be a cracking clash! Find our full preview and tips below.

Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.

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2024 AFL Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips

Brisbane vs Geelong

Saturday 7:30pm AEST, April 20th, Gabba

Geelong continued their hot start to the season with a 75-point victory over North Melbourne at the Cattery last week. The Cats were in cruise control for the majority of the contest, led by Jeremy Cameron’s 6 goals and 21 disposals. Geelong had an even spread of contributors with Max Holmes (25 disposals), Tom Stewart (24), Gryan Miers (23) and Jack Bowes (23) the leading ball getters for the Cats.

Despite having 36 less disposals than the Roos, Geelong were +16 inside 50’s, +13 contested possessions and +7 clearances. 

Geelong’s perfect start to the season has allowed them to manage their older list, and their selections this week continue to prove that. Patrick Dangerfield returns from a hamstring injury, Tom Hawkins and Jake Kolodjashnij return after being managed, and Toby Conway returns to the side for the third game of his career.

Zach Tuohy and Rhys Stanley have been managed, while youngsters Connor O’Sullivan and Shannon Neale have been omitted.

Brisbane produced a statement win to open Round 5, with a comprehensive performance in a 22-point victory over Melbourne. The final score flattered the Demons who kicked the final four goals of the game in junk time, as Brisbane held Melbourne to three goals in the first three quarters.

The only sour point for Brisbane was an ankle injury to Zac Bailey, who will miss the next 4-6 weeks. Experienced midfielder Jarryd Lions will replace Bailey, and now has an opportunity to cement himself in the best 22, which hasn’t been a certainty for the last twelve months.

The Lions work at coalface against one of the best midfields in the competition broke the game open. Brisbane were +12 for contested possessions, +9 clearances and +8 inside 50’s despite the Demons winning the hiatus by 31. Cam Rayner led the way with one of the best performances of his career, with 25 disposals and 9 clearances.

Match Prediction: The Lions are winless at the Gabba this season, and given the fortress it’s been over the last five years, it’s difficult to see them losing three straight games at home. What Brisbane have produced over the last fortnight should give confidence that they’re getting back to the form that saw them reach the Grand Final last season. 

The Lions' contested work has been the big turning point over the last fortnight. Brisbane are now ranked fifth in the competition for contested possessions, and will be a key advantage for them given the Cats are currently ranked 11th. Brisbane are also ranked first for clearances, second for inside 50’s and fourth for tackles per game. It’s clear the tide is turning at the coalface, and it’s an area they can expose the Cats in. Brisbane have won three of their last four games against Geelong at the Gabba, with those three wins coming by an average winning margin of 18 points. 

Brisbane -10.5

$1.90 (1 Unit)

 

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Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals: The reigning Brownlow Medallist has hit the ground running in 2024, averaging 27 disposals per game. Neale has hit the 25+ disposal mark in three of his four games, with the only game he missed the mark being a 24-disposal game against Melbourne last week. The Brisbane co-captain is averaging 25 disposals per game across his last three games against Geelong.

Tom Stewart 20+ Disposals: Tom Stewart has been a major reason for Geelong’s undefeated start to 2024, with the five time All Australian averaging 23 disposals per game. Stewart has reached 20 disposals in his last seven games, including all five games this season. Stewart picked up 25 disposals in his last game against Brisbane. 

Gryan Miers 20+ Disposals: Gryan Miers has been in elite form to start 2024, with five consecutive games over 20 disposals, in what has been a remarkable season for the league’s best half forward. Miers has produced games of 20, 26, 21, 22 and 23 disposals. 

Oliver Henry Anytime Goal scorer: After a 41-goal season in his first year at Geelong, Ollie Henry is backing up with another quality season. The former Magpie has kicked ten goals from the opening five games of the season, kicking a goal in every game this season. Henry has kicked at least one goal in 25 of his 27 games as a Cat.

SGM Odds: $3.20 at BoomBet

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