Big Bash League Round 8 Preview
It’s the final round of the Big Bash League!
It’s been a crazy series with a lot of upset results and some incredible cricket throughout. It’s been pure entertainment every single night of the week - well, except for this round apparently!
The finals line up does look pretty set, but the Renegades are still a slight chance. They need to upset the top team in the Strikers, and then hope other results go their way with the Stars and Sixers both vulnerable. However both of those sides play a depleted Thunder outfit this round, so I can’t see it happening. The Thunder can also reach the finals with two wins, but surely that won’t happen, right?
Round 7 appeared to be starting strong for us when the Strikers smashed 119 off ten overs against the Thunder, but then rain intervened which was rather costly. It meant our three-unit play was a push and also the Thunder snuck a point to avoid the wooden spoon which is a play we made pre-season. The Thunder are clearly the weakest team in the league so they have done well to avoid finishing last again.
It will be the Heat who take the spoon home, but not before they terrorized our tips a little first. We’ve been saying all year they are capable of causing some upsets with a superb batting line up. They have the two leading run scorers in the competition (Lynn and Forrest) but finished last! Against the Renegades they were awful and two days later they were brilliant against the Hurricanes. The Heat will rue this season as they are a better team that last.
The Hurricanes will also be very frustrated after missing out on the finals with their loss to the Heat. Inconsistencies plagued the Hurricanes all season and they would disappointed with only three wins for the season after finishing in the final last year.
We take a look at the final round as well as the sweats we have in some of the futures bets.
Saturday January 17th – Sydney Thunder vs Melbourne Stars (Spotless Stadium)
The Thunder return to Spotless Stadium where their GM has come out and declared there will be better ticketing facilities and a better quality pitch. We’ll have to wait and see, but the Thunder players will be focussed on finishing their season strong.
The Thunder are a mathematical chance of making the finals but upsetting the two biggest franchises in the league in the final round would be a meteoric effort.
There are a few changes to their squad with Dirk Nannes and Andrew McDonald back from injury, and Scott Henry included, with Ian Moran and Mark Cosgrove omitted while Gurinder Sandhu is with the Australian squad. Mike Hussey will miss once again through injury which is a huge hole to fill. Jason Roy showed enough in one over to suggest he’s going to be dangerous, but a lot falls on Jaques Kallis with both the bat and ball.
The Stars are in great shape to reach the finals after starting the season 0-3 and drifting out to a price of around $15 to win the tournament. One more win from their last two games should be enough and they’ll be looking to do exactly that against the Thunder here.
Their squad has a different look about it with James Faulkner and Glenn Maxwell joining the national side. It leaves their middle order a little exposed with Rob Quiney and Peter Handscomb both returning from injury. It will be very important that their top three of Wright, White and Pietersen get going.
Verdict: Stars to lock up a finals berth with a comfortable win. They have a more complete side with more depth to cover missing players.
Monday January 19th – Melbourne Renegades vs Adelaide Strikers (Etihad Stadium)
This should be a good game under the roof on Monday night. It’s a dead rubber for the Strikers who are safely into a home final, while it could be do-or-die for the Renegades. One team with nothing to play for, and the other with everything to play for.
The Strikers were very impressive once again, knocking off the Sixers at home last round. Their openers set it up at the top of the order with Ludeman and Simmons going well before their lower order, led by skipper Johan Botha, smoked it around the park to amass a commanding total. Ludeman is now into third on the overall run scorers list, but otherwise, it’s been even contributions across the board with the bat from the Strikers. Their strength is their bowling led by Ben Laughlin, but Kane Richardson is now with the Australian squad so should miss this game.
The Renegades got the job done against the Heat, demolishing them for just 80, and although they made hard work of it, they got the runs. They’ll want to let their bowlers loose once again and cause some havoc against the Strikers. If Pattinson can bowl to his potential, he’s virtually unstoppable, and it looks like he’s starting to get back to where his fitness and form should be which is exciting for Australian cricket. With Siddle and Rimmington in support, and the dangerous spin of Ahmed and Al Hasan, they have a good attack.
It’s with the bat that they seem confused. Tom Beaton was a nice addition last game with a useful 31 from 16 balls. He might come in earlier this time around, while Matthew Wade will need to stand up at the top of the order if they are to be a chance.
Verdict: Danger game for the Strikers. Wait and see what line up they offer, but there is plenty of support for the Renegades here, so that may offer some value on the Strikers.
Wednesday January 21st – Melbourne Stars vs Perth Scorchers (MCG)
With the finals line ups now assured, this match takes on a new perspective with home ground advantage on the line. If the Scorchers win, they will lock in a home semi-final, while the Stars will need a substantial boost to the net run rate to avoid having to take the long road to the title. It might not sound like a big deal in a season where home ground advantage hasn’t meant much, but finals are a different kettle of fish, so this is big stakes. It's also a potential preview of the semi-final as it's likely they will square up against each other once again.
The Stars have won four in a row and coming off the back of a very strong victory against a weak Thunder outfit. Kevin Pietersen was superb and he now leads the competition for the most runs. He’ll need to perform again in this game, and in the finals, if the Stars are to go all the way. Their middle order has been severely weakened with the losses of Glenn Maxell and James Faulkner, but those two are three dimensional players, so their bowling, fielding and experience will be sorely missed.
While the Stars are missing a couple of key players, the Scorchers are regaining big time players at the right time. Shaun Marsh comes in from the Test side while Nathan Coulter-Nile is back from injury. Two huge inclusions that add tremendous depth to a team that has performed brilliantly all season.
Their bowling especially has been excellent, with Jason Behrendorff sharing the most wickets in the competition with John Hastings, and well supported by Hogg and Tye.
It’s worth mentioning that Cameron White and Shaun Marsh have both been added to the Australian ODI squad but will be available for this match before hooking up with the national team in Hobart.
The interesting twist from this match is that the Scorchers haven’t played a game since January 11th which is an eternity in the context of this competition where form is arguably more important than any other factor. Is the form with the Stars?
Verdict: The MCG has hosted some unbelievable BBL04 matches this season, and this looks like another that could go down to the wire. The form favours the Stars, but it’s hard to ignore the changes in personnel for both teams which heavily favours the Scorchers. The bookies are struggling to split them which means the Scorchers are the value for mine.
Thursday January 22nd – Sydney Sixers vs Sydney Thunder (SCG)
Firstly, let me say I think it was dumb scheduling to have the Thunder play two games in the final round. They were highly unlikely to play finals this season, so it would’ve been much better to have the Hurricanes and Heat still involved in the season to create more excitement in this last round with potential finals permutations.
As it is, this is pretty much a dead rubber which is horrible for the last match of the season. The Sixers are safely in the finals, and can get a home final with a massive win and if other results go their way, but it’s highly unlikely.
The Sixers were well beaten by the Strikers last round. The scoreboard was flattering with some late heroics from Jordan Silk keeping it respectable. The reality is they started the season on fire and have wobbled significantly since. A good strong win against the Thunder might be exactly what they need before the finals.
As for the Thunder, there’s really not much to say. To not finish bottom of the ladder is flattering to them, as their side at the moment is easily the worst in the league. So that's a win in itself. Luckily they had a couple of match-winning performances earlier in the season to register a couple of wins on the board before being depleted late in the season. Mike Hussey is trying to come up for this game, but without finals on the line, it’s unlikely his calf injury will be risked. Once again it will all fall on Jacques Kallis, with Aiden Blizzard also having a solid season. The rest of the team wouldn’t get a game for anyone else.
Verdict: Sixers to win by a mile, but they’ve been smashed in the betting, coming into as short as $1.38 at some bookies, which means there’s not a lot of value there. Would be happy to back at around $1.55 but otherwise it’s just too short to risk.
Betting
Overall: -5.34 units
Melbourne Stars (vs Sydney Thunder) @$1.61 at Bet365 (3 units)
Adelaide Strikers (vs Melbourne Renegades) @$1.80 at Sportingbet (1 unit)
Perth Scorchers (vs Melbourne Stars) @$2.00 at Luxbet (2 units)
Sydney Sixers (vs Sydney Thunder) @$1.48 at Luxbet (no play)
Kevin Pietersen has been a stand out performer for the Stars this season with consistent performances that have reeked of confidence and maturity, allowing others to bat around him. Looking for him to finish the season in style to rub in into the England selectors!
Kevin Pietersen most runs Stars @$4.00 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
We’ll make a small play on Michael Klinger to score most runs for the Scorchers, with the Sportsbet promotion. After a great start to the season, his form has dropped away, but he’s a class act and will bounce back. With Shaun Marsh’s inclusion as favourite in this market, it means there’s some value on Klinger.
Michael Klinger most runs Scorchers @$4.33 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Aiden Blizzard has been the Thunder’s most consistent and leading run scorer this season. He’s contributed in most games, whereas Kallis has two fifties and a lot of failures. None of the other Thunder batsmen have shown anything this season. Blizzard is also a six hitter, so there’s a good chance for money back through the Sportsbet promotion. Edit: Price has now shifted to $5.00 with the possible inclusion of Michael Hussey.
Aiden Blizzard most runs Thunder @5.00 at at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Futures
Check out the link below for a full blog on the status of our Futures Bets, the sweats we have this round and the expected profits.
