Big Bash Futures - Final Round Sweats
We thought we'd evaluate our positions with our Futures Bets in this season's Big Bash League with one round to go! It's been a really tricky season betting wise with a lot of unpredictable results, but we're in good shape for a healthy profit with our Futures Bets.
In this blog we take a look at the plays we made pre-season - were they good bets, do we have a sweat this week and what sort of profit can we expect? Let's take a look!
Futures Bets
Outright Winner
Our pre-season play was on the Sydney Sixers. We went hard on them to make the finals with a maximum five unit play. They are going to give us a bit of a sweat but should do the right thing and get themselves into the top four. We’ve also got them at $4.25 to make the final, and are capable of doing so.
Sweat factor: 3/10 (hopefully won’t be a problem)
Bet rating: 8/10 (giddy up)
Best outcome: +12.25 units
Likely outcome: +5.75 units
Wooden Spoon
When Usman Khawaja withdrew before the start of the season we committed to the Thunder to finish last, however they pulled off two fantastic wins and then stole a point in the rain against the Strikers. At this point of the season, they are the worst team in the league, by far, but unfortunately the Heat have severely underperformed this season. I feel it was the right play, but the luck went the wrong way for us here.
Sweat factor: 0/10 (all over red rover)
Bet rating: 7/10 (right bet, wrong result)
Outcome: - 3 units
Tournament Leading Run Scorer
Our top pick was Luke Wright but he’s struggled to get anything going at all this season. We then speculated on a few others – Nic Maddinson, Mike Hussey, Matthew Wade and Sam Whiteman. Maddinson and Hussey started the season on fire but have dropped away which has been disappointing. When you consider finals will count in this market, its going to take a couple of big innings from Maddinson or Wright to get close to winning this. Sadly, we’ve missed the mark with most of this season’s leading run scorers.
Sweat factor: 1/10 (need a miracle)
Bet rating: 2/10 (missed the mark)
Best outcome: +14.5 units (miracles can happen)
Likely outcome: -2.5 units
Team Leading Run Scorers
While we missed the mark with the tournament leading run scorers we’ve had better success with our team leading run scorer plays. Our biggest play of the tournament was on Ben Dunk to top the Hurricanes, and after a good sweat in their final game, he landed us the chocolates with 5 units at $4.00.
We have a play on Luke Wright to top the Stars, but he trails KP by 61 runs so that looks a stretch, and we also want Matthew Wade to finish strong in his last game for the Renegades. Wade is 13 runs behind Ferguson with no other likely contenders, and probably just one game to go. It will be a tight finish, but hopefully he can nudge ahead to get us a some profit at odds of $6.50.
One of our other big plays was on Michael Klinger at the Scorchers. He started like a house on fire with a big hundred, but has somewhat struggled since which means Michael Carberry is now hot on his heels. Klinger has a 10 run lead, but with the Scorchers looking good for two finals, we might have to wait a little to decide this one.
Sweat factor: 8/10 (a couple will be close!)
Bet rating: 10/10 (big plays, good odds, nice profits)
Best outcome: +32.75 units
Likely outcome: +25 units
Tournament Leading Wicket Taker
Our main play was Jackson Bird for most wickets but he hasn’t had a great series. Cameron Gannon, Patrick Cummins, James Hopes and Andrew Flintoff were other spec bets that haven’t come off. However we have a couple who have had really good seasons.
Cameron Boyce is right up there which we nibbled at odds of $29. He doesn’t have any more games but had a great season. But we do have the current tournament leader in Jason Behrendorff at a price of $23. He’s currently two wickets ahead of John Hastings, and with a probable two finals to play, Behrendorff is a very good chance of winning this bet for us.
Sweat factor: 5/10 (should hold)
Bet rating: 7/10 (a few misses, but one dart may hit a bullseye)
Best outcome: +8.4 units
Likely outcome: +8.4 units
Team Leading Wicket Takers
We also made a couple of strong plays on players to take the most wickets at their respective teams. Our biggest play was Ben Laughlin at the Strikers with 3 units at odds of $3.25. He’s on 10 wickets, two ahead of Kane Richardson who is currently in the national team, and three ahead of both Tait and Zampa. It’s a nice buffer, but with one more preliminary match and finals to play, this one is far from over. Interestingly Tait has his wickets from only four games, and they might look to rest him from the game in Melbourne.
We also made a play of 2 units at $4.25 for Cameron Boyce to lead the Hurricanes. With 10 wickets, he managed to hold that position in the final game, just one ahead of Ben Hilfenhaus. So that’s locked in a nice little collect for us.
Our final play was Jackson Bird at the Stars but that one is as good as gone. He’s five wickets behind John Hastings and will need a big haul to get close.
Sweat factor: 6/10 (could get interesting)
Bet rating: 8/10 (should be some nice profit)
Best outcome: +19.75
Likely outcome: +11.25 units
So overall, while our match betting has been disappointing, our futures bets should secure some good profits, if things go to plan we’re looking at in excess of 40 units profit for the BBL04 series. Not too shabby in what was a tough season for betting!
