Belmont Racing Tips for Saturday, October 7th

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Belmont on Saturday, October 7^th.

We have an eight-race card to preview, featuring the Listed Birthday Stakes. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 9m.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below! You can also check out our Randwick Preview & Tips here and our Flemington Preview & Tips here!

Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!  

In Episode 3 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Flemington and Randwick and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, October 7th! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!  

BELMONT RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 3 Just Like Fire

Best Value: Race 8 Blitzem Someday

Race 1

Distinctly average race to begin proceedings with a maiden for four-year-old’s and upwards. There is one horse that takes my fancy, though, which is RED BANANAS for Justin and Lucy Warwick. This horse has done absolutely zilch in three runs so far, finishing 2^nd last, 3^rd last, and last. But he has clearly had issues because those three races have come over the space of 18 months. He resumes from a spell here and his trial leading into this was very impressive. He travelled three-wide without cover and cruised up to hit the lead about 300m from home, going to the line untested while all the other horses were under hard riding. Still looks inexperienced but he will get a nice run from the barrier and this isn’t a strong race. $8 looks a nice price. The other horse of interest is MASSA MAC. He was first up last start and stepped away slowly so settled a long way back. Ran on well through the pack and he’d trialled well leading into that. He went close in a couple of races last prep so if he gets a better run and ride today he could give this a shake at $7.50. Open race due to lack of quality.

TIP: Red Bananas EW / Massa Mac EW

Race 2

Looks a two-horse race between PINZU and OUR FINEST MOMENT. I found it incredibly hard to split these two, with both having beat each other once this prep. The most recent outing was two starts ago, when PINZU came from last and sailed past OUR FINEST MOMENT over 1400m, winning by 0.75L. From that run, Our Finest Moment gets a 3kg weight swing in its favour, so the odds really are evened up here. Our Finest Moment has the run over 1600m under the belt, but I feel the key factor today is the track conditions. Our Finest Moment’s two wins this prep have been on soft ground, while Pinzu’s two wins this prep have been on good ground. The track is a Good 4 currently but there is some drizzle predicted. I think if it stays a Good 4 then I’ve got Pinzu on top. Both horses carry 3kg apprentices today which is some query. William Pike rides COME ON BOARD, who is third up from a spell here. Expect him to lead, and if he gets a cheap sectional then he should run a very bold race. PRENTICE next best.

TIP: Pinzu

Race 3

JUST LIKE FIRE produced an enormous win first up from a spell over this track and distance, coming from last to charge home over the top. She’s won two from three when second up, which included her second up run last prep when she won by 2.25L. She’ll get back again but she’s a good chance to win again here. STAR VALUE has two wins from three starts and also won over this track and distance last stat. His winning time was actually faster than Just Like Fire’s winning time four days earlier, but that could be largely due to the tempo of the races. He steps up from Wednesday grade to Saturday grade but he’ll get the run of the race from barrier 4 and is a legitimate winning chance. TRAVELLIN’ looks the value at double figure odds. He won a trial leading into his first up run but he always needs that before firing second up. He’s won three times and placed once from five starts when second up, and should get a good run from barrier 1. CHASING CHAOS has finished in the top two in five of his seven starts over the track and distance, while TYCOON TARGET has returned in good form and will be competitive again.

TIP: Just Like Fire (Best Bet) / Travellin’ EW

Race 4

Interested in ENTRECHAT each way here at the $6 mark. This horse’s first two runs back from a 63-day let-up were poor, but there were reasons why. She always needs a couple of runs back from a spell before she comes good, and she never goes any good on wet ground. Last start she got firm ground and was having her third run back, which saw her bounce back to run a luckless 4^th behind Jetoomy, beaten 1L. Draws well today, gets a 3kg claim, should be peaking, and bolted in last time she ran at this track and distance. CARALABEK didn’t get things go his way last start but prior to that he was running well. REGAL ROGUE gets in light after the claim today and has been running well at the provincials. I think the value could be CALIBRA at double figures, but she needs a wet track. Her run two starts ago was very good, and she followed it up with a solid win last start. She’s won at the distance, but her best form has all come on soft and heavy ground, so she’ll need to hope the rain comes. If it does, back her.

TIP: Entrechat EW

Race 5

Feature race of the day and it’s not a bad little line-up. I previewed this race earlier in the week on the podcast and said I’d be taking on MAN BOOKER today. He carries the big weight first up here and his best distance is probably over a bit further than this now. He’s got a terrific record at the track and he’s a quality horse, but he’ll have to be at his best with the conditions of the race against him today. Happy to be on GREAT SHOT who ran 2^nd to Man Booker a couple of times last prep. Gets a weight swing in his favour from those runs, and his first up record is formidable with three wins and a 2^nd from four starts. Won a trial leading into this, he’ll probably lead and be tough to catch. SILVERSTREAM is the value and a horse to have something on. The price I suggested backing her at in the podcast is well gone now but she’s still worth backing at $6.50. She went missing last prep but they eventually turned her form around. The query is whether her best is now over longer trips, but she’s undefeated at the track and has won three from four when first up from a spell. You could make a case for just about every horse in the race here but those are the two I’ll be on.

TIP: Great Shot / Silverstream EW

Race 6

Looks a genuine two-horse race between CAIPIRINHA and SALORSCI. Caipirinha is a Stakes winner and is undefeated at the 1000m. She is a speedball that will jump straight to the lead. She won a recent trial by more than 5L and the only query is the 59kg she has to carry first up. SALORSCI has won four of his five races. I think he’s better suited over slightly longer than the 1000m but his recent trial was also very impressive. Draws well and can sit hot on the heels of Caipirinha or even lead himself. Gets a 3.5kg pull in the weights but I just think Caipirinha may be a bit sharper over the short trip.

TIP: Caipirinha

Race 7

Another race that could end up a two-horse affair and it looks that way on paper. ROCKON TOMMY has won both starts to date, the most recent of which was by 2L over 1200m. He drops 2kg from that run, but he has a sticky barrier today in 8. Last start he sat outside the leader from barrier 3 and I assume they’ll try and do similar again. Looks capable of stepping up to 1300m and if he improves again he’s the one to beat. ROGANELLA resumed nicely over 1200m as well, missing out by a nose after settling last in the run. The extra trip will definitely suit and he’ll get a dream run from barrier 4. Interestingly, the horse Roganella beat in his trial (by 0.3L) was the same horse that Rockon Tommy beat last start by 2L. I think at the prices we can back Rockon Tommy and save on Roganella. Tommy is $3.30, while Roganella is $3.75.

TIP: Rockon Tommy

Race 8

Wide open race to finish off the day but if the apprentice Andrew Castle can give BLITZEM SOMEDAY a good ride here then I think it will go very close, because the race is going to be set up for a horse coming from the back of the field. The speed on paper for this 1000m race is ridiculous. TENTERDEN, CAPTIVATED POINT, BANGALORE, PINBALL WIZARD, UNDISCLOSED and DE ANDES are all horses that go forward, and four of those have drawn wide. So I expect the sparks to fly early, the eventual leader to have to run this at a good clip, and the backmarkers to swoop home late. Blitzem Someday will be right out the back, and his recent form is good enough to win this. Three starts he beat hype horse FLOYD, before that horse turned the tables and beat him by 5L (he still ran 2^nd), before winning at Northam last start when held up in the straight. Granted, it was a huge run by Pinball Wizard who sat three-wide the trip on speed, but from barrier 9 here there’s a chance of him being caught out there again. The race will also suit GLIMMER GIRL, but I thought she was disappointing first up. Happy to be on Blitzem Someday at $7.50.

TIP: Blitzem Someday EW (Best Value)

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!