Turnbull Stakes Day Preview & Tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Group 1 Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington on Saturday, October 7^th.

We have a stacked card with the Turnbull supported by three Group 2’s – the Gilgai Stakes, Edward Manifold Stakes and Blazer Stakes – along with the Group 3 Bart Cummings and four Listed races.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below! You can also check out our Randwick Preview & Tips here!

Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!  

In Episode 3 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Flemington and Randwick and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, October 7th! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!  

FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 7 Almandin

Best Value: Race 8 Ellicazoom

Race 1

Tough way to start the day with a field of relatively unknown two-year-old’s, a few of which haven’t been seen publicly. I’ve watched a number of the accessible jump-outs and trials to try and get a guide on a few of these key runners. I can understand why SUNLIGHT is favourite here but she’s short enough in the market at $3.80. She won a trial in nice style and followed that up by winning a Flemington jump-out last week in what was the fastest two-year-old trial of the morning. SANGLIER ran 2^nd to her in the Flemington jump-out and I think he’s clearly the pick of the two Godolphin colts based on what I saw. Damian Lane is also booked for the ride; he’s had six rides for James Cummings this season for two wins and two placings. Dwayne Dunn is on the other Godolphin horse; he’s had nine rides for one placing. Sanglier was urged along briefly but closed off really well to the line, finishing virtually alongside Sunlight, with SCOTTISH ROGUE close-up in 3^rd. To my eye, Sunlight and Sanglier had Scottish Rogue covered, but Tony McEvoy did say he didn’t think the price discrepancy between Sunlight and Scottish Rogue should be so big. Scottish Rogue should be included at $18, but I think Sunlight and Sanglier were both better. GRAND CHALLENGE trialled really stylishly in a separate Flemington jump-out, closing off strongly to the line under a hold. He settled out near the back and went straight past RANIER, but the jump-out was run in a slower time (47.11sec) than the Sunlight/Sanglier/Scottish Rogue jump-out (46.38). Hayes also seems to think he’ll improve a lot for the race and his grand final is a race on Cox Plate day. NOMOTHAJ was the sole runner in this field to run in another jump-out that morning. She trialled nicely as well, but the trial was run in much slower time (47.83sec). There’s been money for this filly, who is as low as $5 at some bookmakers, but there’s still $8.50 available at Bet365 if you like her. AKKADIAN and BOLD TYPE both trialled together on the same day as Sunlight’s first trial, and actually ran a better time. Akkadian won the trial, but he was under the whip in doing so. Bold Type, on the other hand, led and went to the line under a strangle hold. I think he can seriously measure up here, especially if the track favours frontrunners early. LADY BITHIAH led all the way to win a jump-out at Caulfield and can definitely show up here. From everything I saw, Sunlight ($3.80) deserves favouritism, but expecting big runs from both Sanglier ($8.50) and Bold Type ($14). James Cummings’ record at Flemington is 33 runners for one winner and three placings, so that makes me hesitant about tipping Sanglier. Will back Sunlight and Bold Type, saver on Sanglier.

TIP: Sunlight / Bold Type EW

Race 2

As mentioned in the podcast, I thought ESPERANCE was a slightly false favourite here and I’m prepared to take him on at the $3.70 he currently is. I was very keen on TAKING AIM but he’s been scratched this morning so that means I’m less keen than I was to take on Esperance, but I still think there’s one to beat him, which is ICON OF DUBAI. This horse ran 2^nd to Paret first up, which I think will prove to be a very solid form line. Last start he went back to maiden grade at Kembla and bolted in by 6L. Hoping he can sit up on speed again today from the good draw, and I think he’s the value in the race at $6. The Snowden’s don’t bring runners to Melbourne to make up the numbers, and this horse will be here for a reason. I like the look of HULME as a horse. Resumed with a very solid run behind Royal Symphony, beaten 2.5L and can go well here. If the track is favouring frontrunners, SIRCCONI will be tough to run down, but I think he got things to suit last start and I’d be surprised if he won this. I think with the scratching of Taking Aim it’s well worth including SNITZEPEG at $21.

TIP: Icon Of Dubai EW

Race 3

A few I’m interested in here. I think it’s worth giving ESHTIRAAK another chance today. Anyone who backed him last start has to just put a line through that run. He was butchered by Oliver on that occasion, who just rode him way too negatively. David Hayes said as much so I think we’ll see him ridden closer today and the 1800m should really suit him. Him being beaten as favourite last start just means we’re getting a better price today with $6.50 available. The race he ran in last start was won by CLIFF’S EDGE and I think he’s another worth sticking with. He gives Eshtiraak a 2.5kg weight swing today but he draws to get the run of the race once again from barrier 3. He should box seat and I’d expect him to be right in the finish. Weir listed him as his best of the day and I’ll happily have something on at $7. There’s been good money for ANIMALIA who comes here on the back of a win over 1600m at Newcastle last start. His two wins over 1600m have been dominant, and his failures have been over trips shorter than that, so that indicates he’ll only be better suited by the step-up to 1800m. Draws barrier 1 with Bowman on so easy to see him going well, but I still query that form slightly and he’s being set for the Derby over 2500m so I’ll take him on here. MAIN STAGE ran well behind Tavistock Abbey last start but he got the run of the race on that occasion from barrier 2, and he’ll be getting a very different run from barrier 15 here so I’ll take him on too. I do think JOHNNY VINKO will run a good race. He bumped into Tavistock Abbey last start too, and she then came out and won again at her next start, so he can go close today from the good draw, which should allow him to sit closer in the run. Definitely include at $16. WEATHER WITH YOU is being set for the Derby by Murray Baker. Expect him to run well but from what I saw last start I’d be surprised if he won. Backing Eshtiraak and Cliff’s Edge with a penny on Johnny Vinko.

TIP: Eshtiraak / Cliff’s Edge EW

Race 4

I took a pretty detailed look at this race (and SPIETH in particular) on the podcast above at the 18:50min mark. It’s definitely D-Day for Spieth and at his best he’d be winning this without a doubt. But I have serious questions as to whether he’s at his best. He ran well first up, recording the fastest 600m of the day in a race which he was just never going to win. Redzel was the horse that beat him that day, and he’s now a live chance in The Everest. But the interesting thing to come from that run was the fact the stewards report noted Spieth pulled up with a respiratory issue post-race, which backs up something I was told about him last prep. I was told he had a serious breathing problem and would struggle to win another race, which is exactly what’s happened. However, Bryce Heys did say that the horse pulled up the best he ever has from that first up run, and brushed off the breathing issue as something that the horse always has. Heys basically said the horse needs to win this race and this was the plan all along, and even if he’s not 100% anymore, he’d probably win this if he repeated his first up performance. THE QUARTERBACK resumes here after failing in two starts last prep. His trainer suggested he’s not sure how fit he is because he’s been working and trialling on heavy ground. He generally runs well first up and loves the Flemington straight, but there’s a slight query over his form in my opinion. The horses he beat when winning this race last year were We’ve Got This and Durendal. We’ve Got This is going terrible this prep, while Durendal has been shipped over to WA. He’d need to be at his absolute best to win this. SILENT SEDITION is the big unknown. She’s never missed a place first up and has never missed the top two from five starts at the distance, but coming into this off a decent spell and is being targeted towards the Myer Classic over 1600m. At the price I’m just slightly hesitant but it’d be no surprise to see her win. I think the price for BONS AWAY is huge value. The horse has won four in a row now, and defeated Everest ‘contender’ Brave Smash last start. He’s rock-hard fit, has a tremendous record at the distance and is in this right up to his ears. Expect LAND OF PLENTY to bounce back. He finished 3^rd behind Redkirk Warrior and Scale Of Justice two starts ago over this track and distance. Last start he was caught wide so forget he went around. If he repeats his run from two starts back he will go very close at double figure odds. MALIBU STYLE not hopeless. Prepared to give Spieth one more chance but if he doesn’t win this he may be done. Also backing Bons Away.

TIP: Spieth / Bons Away EW

Race 5

Not much to write here. Winx wins this cosily. She will box seat from the good barrier, while HUMIDOR will likely be behind her in the run and won’t be suited by the slow tempo I expect. He was perhaps a little bit flattered last start by the ludicrous tempo they set in the race, which set it up for him as the backmarker of the field. He’s flying, and right on track for the Caulfield Cup, but if this turns into a sit-sprint Winx will have him covered easily. Worth having something small on ASSIGN at $16 for the place. He finished last first-up, but he also finished last first-up last reparation. He then went to Sydney and won a Group 3 race over 2000m at his next start. His second-up record is terrific with three wins and two placings from five starts, and the key to him running a good race will be the slow tempo, which means he can lead at his own leisure. In all likelihood Winx and Humidor will clear out, but Assign for the place is worth a fiver. If you’re really desperate to bet in the race, I’d happily take $2.10 about SKYFIRE to beat MAGICOOL home (Sportsbet). Magicool is going like a slug and has only beaten five runners home in his last eight starts! SKYFIRE is way out of grade but I reckon he’s a red-hot chance to beat Magicool.

TIP: Winx (Assign to place / Skyfire to beat Magicool)

Race 6

Four main hopes here that I like. I’ll be backing LEATHER’N’LACE. She’s three from three this preparation and led all the way to win comfortably over 1400m at Caulfield last start. She won’t get things as easy today with a bit more speed in the race and a wide draw, but it’s hard to knock her form. They’re planning on backing her up in the Thousand Guineas next weekend so you’d expect her to go very close today. Like the price of PURE SCOT who is going really well without troubling the judge. She’s motored home in both starts this prep but has just been so far back that she’s struggled to get near them. Up to 1600m now, down in weight, blinkers on first time and third up from a spell. Hayes says there’s still improvement to come in her coat, but the tempo today will suit her coming from back in the field. At $14 I’ll be having something on. I’LL HAVE A BIT was beaten comfortably by Leather’n’lace last start, but drops 3kg today and gets a beautiful run from barrier 6. The tempo will suit her too, and she’s another at double figure odds that can go close. I have a lot of respect for Tony McEvoy runners in Melbourne and it’s no different here with BRING ME ROSES. She’s come from back in the field at all three starts so far and has really been hitting the line hard. He wouldn’t bring this horse to Melbourne if she was no hope, so despite the wide draw she should be closing in hard late. Include her in your numbers. ANCHOR BID was very disappointing last start. Drops back to 1600m here and has blinkers going on for the first time. Last start was enough to put me off her.

TIP: Leather’n’lace / Pure Scot EW

Race 7

I’d be awfully surprised if anything troubled the top three in the market here. I wasn’t originally keen to bet in this race, but with Crocodile Rock scratched, I just can’t see them beating ALMANDIN. Team Williams have notified stewards that GRANDDUKEOFTUSCANY will lead, so we can certainly expect a hot tempo to be set in order to set the race up for ALMANDIN. The Melbourne Cup winner was unbelievable last start over this track and distance, bolting in by 2.75L under a hold. He’ll have to come from the tail of the field today but he gets in with 60kg today as opposed to 61kg last start and he’s undefeated over the track and distance. Think he’ll win again. HARLEM is the horse that can beat him. He was just as impressive in winning over 2000m at Caulfield last start, after getting a lovely run from barrier 1. He’s another that will likely be a bit further back from the wide barrier, but he seems to be flying on his way to the Caulfield Cup so with 3.5kg less weight than Almandin, he could well win. AMELIE’S STAR ran home well from back in the field behind Harlem last start and can settle closer from barrier 5 today. She’s not hopeless but has a bit to make up on the other two.

TIP: Almandin (Best Bet)

Race 8

Listeners to the podcast will know I’m very keen on two horses here at double figure odds. The first is SWORD OF LIGHT, who won last start over the track and distance. She sped over from the wide barrier that day, but will have no such problem from barrier 3 today. She’s jumped out nicely at Flemington since her last run and Damian Lane jumps off PETITION to keep the ride on Sword Of Light, which is a positive sign. Happy to back her at $11. ELLICAZOOM is the second runner I want to back at $10.  She ran well first up over 1200m, a totally unsuitable distance for her, beaten just 1.6L by Savanna Amour after facing the breeze from the wide barrier. She’s much better suited up to 1400m second up here, and draws perfectly in barrier 1. She’s never missed the top two over this distance, and was beaten a nose by both Savanna Amour and I Am A Star last prep. That form is tremendous for a race like this and she is a huge winning chance. PROMPT RESPONSE is nearing her peak, which I expect to be next start. She went close first up, beaten 0.6L, and has a great record at this distance with six top-two finishes from seven starts. Draws perfectly but expect her to be winning next start. Happy to take on MISSROCK who continues to race well without winning. She looks very short to my eye. Also happy to take on MERRIEST – she’s got an outstanding second up record but not as good a third up record. She draws wide and contests a harder race. PETITION comes out of the same race and can go well in this. She’s never missed a place at the distance and has won her only start at the track. Draws terribly and Lane jumps off so those are two queries. FRENCH EMOTION and KENEDNA the blowouts. French Emotion jumped out superbly at Flemington leading into this and all her best form is in Melbourne. NOW OR LATER should show improvement.

TIP: Sword Of Light EW / Ellicazoom EW (Best Value)

Race 9

Keen on the Sydney-sider NEW TIPPERARY to close out the card. He was beaten 3L when resuming behind Comin’ Through and Tom Melbourne, which is Group 1 form. He always needs his first up run, but his second up record is outstanding with three wins and a 2^nd from four starts. He’s won twice from three starts at the distance, gets Oliver on board, and simply brings superior form to the race. Very happy with $5. Interested in having something on LOVANI at $15. She showed sharp improvement when stepped up to 1400m last start behind Sword Of Light and Swampland, which is nice form. She will be even better at 1600m, but I think she’s flying and she’ll lead. BURNING FRONT should run well but Weir thinks he’ll need more racing. Happy to take on CHARMED HARMONY who hasn’t won for a while and has a poor third up record. I know he ran 2^nd to Hartnell last start but the frontrunners got a picnic that day. Not particularly interested in anything else in the race so happy to back both New Tipperary and Lovani.

TIP: New Tipperary / Lovani EW

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!