And then there were three. The Sydney Sixers and Brisbane Heat will playoff in the penultimate game of BBL12 on Thursday night, with the winner booking a place in the Final against the Scorchers.
Both teams will be without their Aussie test stars for this one, so there will be plenty of pressure on the depth players to get the job done.
Josh Nevett provides his analysis and BBL12 betting tips for The Challenger below.
BBL12 Sydney Sixers vs Brisbane Heat Betting Tips
SCG, Thursday 2nd February, 7:15pm (AEDT)
Sydney Sixers
Predicted XI: Josh Phillipe, Kurtis Patterson, Daniel Hughes, Moises Henriques, Jordan Silk, Hayden Kerr, Dan Christian, Ben Dwarshuis, Sean Abbott, Steve O’Keefe, Izharulhaq Naveed
Sydney had their chance to secure speedy qualification for this year’s final, but ultimately, they were outclassed by a better team.Run machine Steve Smith failed to fire as the Sixers stumbled to 8/151 at Optus Stadium, with Moises Henriques (58 off 43) and Jordan Silk (47* off 34) the only batters to find their feet. The total proved to be well under par, as the Scorchers cruised to a seven-wicket win after a shaky start. As we’ve come to expect, Sean Abbott was the star with the ball, taking all three wickets in a fine spell.
Nevertheless, the result showed that the Sixers will have to be at their very best if they are to turn things around and win this year’s title. Smith’s exit to re-join the test team has made Sydney’s task all the more difficult, as one or more of the underperforming top order will be forced to step up and fill the void. I expect experienced left-hander Daniel Hughes to take Smith’s spot in the XI, but the onus will be on the likes of Phillipe and Patterson to find some form.
On the bright side, Brisbane have also had the heart of their batting group ripped out, so the Sixers will enter this clash as heavy favourites.
Brisbane Heat
Predicted XI: Max Bryant, Josh Brown, Nathan McSweeney, Sam Hain, Sam Heazlett, Jimmy Pierson, James Bazley, Michael Neser, Xavier Bartlett, Matthew Kuhnemann, Spencer Johnson
The Heat have been one of the fairy-tale stories of BBL12, rising from the foot of the ladder to be playing off for a spot in the Final.
Brisbane’s late-season surge was aided by the additions of test batsmen Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne and Matt Renshaw. However, just as those three boosted the Heat’s stocks on return, their departure now leaves a gaping hole in the top order. All three will need to be replaced, and as such the Heat will enter The Challenger seriously undermanned.
Max Bryant, Nathan McSweeney and Sam Heazlett are likely to fill out the line-up. While each is talented in their own right, the stats don’t stack up. Bryant has averaged just 16 from seven innings this campaign, and Heazlett is yet to feature. McSweeney actually sits at the top of the averages for Brisbane in BBL12, but a score of 84 props up his three innings.
Despite the immense challenges that the Heat now face, there is still hope for them to progress further.
Josh Brown hit a powerful 39 off 27 against the Renegades and import Sam Hain has been underutilised since entering the fold, so he may shift up the order for this game. The Heat also have a solid bowling attack, led by Michael Neser. The experienced seamer has 24 wickets in BBL12, and took two in their opening finals encounter. Furthermore, Xavier Bartlett returned to the XI with a bang against the Renegades, starring with 3-18 off his four overs, while Spencer Johnson has been a revelation.
Therefore, it’s not all doom and gloom for Heat, but it will take a special performance for them to topple the Sixers.
Match Prediction
The Sixers should win this game in a canter.
Sydney have won each of their last nine games at the SCG, and have won three of their four matches against the Heat.
With arguably the best bowling attack in the league, the Heat would have struggled even with a full-strength batting group. Missing their three best batsmen, it’s going to be a real uphill battle that I don’t think they will win.
While Smith is a big loss for the Sixers, Phillipe is a home-ground specialist and Silk has been a master at guiding Sydney to strong totals after early trouble.
It’s been great to see the Heat perform so well as underdogs in BBL12, but I am confident that their run will end at the SCG on Thursday.
Sydney Sixers
$1.53 (3 Units)
Same Game Multi
Brisbane have enjoyed stronger starts with Khawaja at the top, but I’m expecting a return to mediocrity without him. Brown has been zero or hero in his matches so far and Bryant has struggled when playing as an opener, so an early wicket is on the cards in this match.
Abbott has been outstanding in BBL12, with 28 wickets to his name. As Sydney’s leader with the ball, Abbott has taken 3+ wickets in five of the Sixers’ last seven matches, so he presents great value to take two or more against the Heat.
The Heat will roll out a particularly weak batting line-up on Thursday, and I expect O’Keefe to also be among the wickets. The wily spinner has taken 12 wickets in eight matches this season and he thrives at the SCG where the pitch usually takes some turn.
Brisbane Heat Fall of Wicket 1 – Under 18.5
Player to Take 2+ Wickets – Sean Abbott
Player to Take 1+ Wickets – Stephen O’Keefe
