Best Bet: Kensington Race 5 #3 Almanzora
Best Value: Ballarat Race 8 #3 Whosyourhousemate
Very interesting runner here in the form of the Lloyd Williams-owned debutant (2) Elgin. Despite having never been seen publicly in trials or at the races, this horse was well backed at one point to win the Australian Guineas but never made it. He finally makes his debut today and he doesn’t come up against a great field so if he has anything close to the talent I suspect he might have, he should be winning this. Market support suggests he’s going to be very hard to beat.
Very lowly BM64 staying race here with three Weir runners engaged. One of them is the favourite (7) Arohata who does look hard to beat. He went down as the odds-on favourite at Bendigo last start but he’d had four weeks between runs on that occasion and pulled up with a throat issue. Down 3kg in weight today and Mark Zahra takes over from the suspended Damian lane. He’s short enough in the market but can atone for that defeat today.
Deep race. Interested in a few here but (3) Scuzi appeals as a good eachway bet at $12. She hasn’t done much in her first two starts back this prep but she’s third up now and back to Ballarat. She’s won her only start at the track and distance and won it very easily. I’d also be keeping a very close eye on the market with (11) Prosecution at $15 first up from a spell with Yendall aboard.
Another one at long odds here that is worth an eachway ticket. (3) Whosyourhousemate has had two starts in Australia and comes into today’s race third up. He’s up to a suitable trip and gets back onto Good ground for the first time since his move here. Barrier 1 should see him take up a decent position and at $15 he might be ready to run a good race. Trainer Mike Moroney has a 37.2% ROI at Ballarat in the past 12 months.
Short-priced favourite (3) Almanzora atoned for a luckless first up run when saluting over 1000m at Randwick last start and she can go back-to-back today on the Kensington track. She goes up in weight pretty sharply but she drops from Saturday grade to Wednesday grade here and James McDonald keeps the ride. Should prove hard to beat once again.
The booking of Hugh Bowman on the Gerald Ryan-trained (6) Antelope really catches the eye here. We very rarely see Bowman ride for Ryan so it’s notable that he’s booked to ride this mare first up. From barrier 1 it’s almost a certainty that she will lead or at the very least box seat behind the leaders and even though her two trials haven’t been entirely inspiring, Ryan will have her ready to go first up. Not an easy race but $6.50 is a reasonable each way price. (10) Lady I Am the other runner of interest.
(11) Bella Success is a well-backed favourite here, dropping back from Saturday grade, where she has also been well-backed in recent starts. No surprise to finally see her win today but there’s a couple outside her that represent a bit of value. (4) Mo The Great improved dramatically last start when 3rd at Warwick Farm over 1400m. It’s been eight weeks since that race but he’s trialled well on two occasions since then and is undefeated at this distance. (9) Tears In Heaven looks over the odds at $18. She’s had three starts this prep and has had absolutely no luck in her two most recent runs. (5) Amanito gets the blinkers on third up today and isn’t hopeless.
Really quite keen on the chances of (1) Saturia each way here. We’re getting $6.00 and that looks a terrific price. This mare has had six starts at the track and distance and has never finished outside the top two. Last start she was well-backed, jumped slowly, was held up until the 100m mark and flew home when it was all over to be beaten a head. She dead-heated with (4) West Fifty Fourth for 2nd on that occasion and meets that horse at the same weights today. Given she really should have beaten him home with any sort of luck, the fact she is $6.00 while West Fifty Fourth is $2.80 is just wrong. She also beat (2) It’s Got It All home by a length three starts ago and meets that runner better at the weights today. The prices just look wrong. The jockey booking is my biggest concern but with any luck Saturia surely goes close in this.
Two that stand out here. (3) King Blitz defied a huge betting drift to win impressively last start at this track and distance. It was only a Class 1 but he won easily and looks up to much better races than that. Today’s race is a Class 3 so he steps up in grade and he’s also drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier 9, but if he gets a good enough run he can run them down once again. (2) The Big Show returns from a spell here and gets the bar plates off for the first time. That’s a huge positive. He measured up in some good races last preparation and it looks like they’ve sorted his feet out now so it would be no surprise at all to see him win first up at $5.50. Backing both.
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