Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Ascot on Saturday, December 15th, as we march on towards the Perth Cup in the New Year.
We’ve got nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail out 9m, though it’s worth noting there was a fair bit of rain overnight. That looks to be most of it out of the way until Sunday so I wouldn’t expct that downpour to affect the track too badly.
Check out our betting tips for every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 2 Angelic Ruler
Best Value Bet: Race 4 Snow Lord
Specialism is the obvious choice on paper based on what she’s done in three career starts to date. She won her first two very stylishly before being run down by a smart one last start in Jericho Missile. It was interesting to see Specialism race rather immaturely throughout, which is something we hadn’t seen from her in her first two starts. If she can find the rail today, she’ll be tough to run down with it out 9m. Red Warrior is the stablemate of Jericho Missile – the horse that beat Specialism last start – and his trial times actually read marginally better than Jericho Missile’s. He follows basically an identical path into this race but there’s reason to say his trials were slightly better, which would make him right in this. Equal stakes on those two should give us money back for Specialism or a good result with Red Warrior.
Keen on Angelic Ruler with Damian Lane in the saddle first up. She’s shown plenty in her first five starts and she’s trialled well leading into today’s race. She needs a good ride from that barrier which is why I’m very happy to see such a strong jockey booking. Kakadu is the value at around $8.50. He had no luck first up over the 1100m here and gets his chance up to 1200m today. His record at Ascot is poor but three of his four starts here were in his first preparation and he’s clearly a better horse now. Well drawn and right in this. Truly Belong has to be considered for obvious reasons with these connections.
First up at 1400m is a big query with Vital Silver given he’s been found wanting late in both first up runs to date in his career, but I’m just going to go with the fact he’s a better horse than the rest of these and he’s had two 1000m trials in preparation for today. He might well be better suited next start but he’s a classy animal and he trialled well behind Enticing Star which gives you some indication of his ability. Retosona should go forward today and if that’s the case he’ll give a good sight at near double figure odds, which represents the value in the race. Flower Of Scotland is going well and is sure to take beating, while Akiko is much better off from barrier 1 as opposed to his wide draw last start.
Good little race! Belter gets a fair old drop in grade here after failing in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes last start. Gets a handy claim for Tayla Stone and draws the rail so will be fired out to lead. He’s yet to win at the track and distance but has placed in all five attempts. Gee Boss returns to the races with Fiona Bell aboard, who produced one of the all-time greatest slaughters aboard him last preparation. He’s a very talented horse with a great winning strike-rate but I can’t back him today with the jockey booking. Wait until Chris Parnham jumps back aboard. The Celt has put two wins together on the trot and even though he goes up in weight to 60kg today, you wouldn’t be surprised if he was to cause a mini upset once again. He’s flying and draws well again. Snow Lord has trialled well and was desperately unlucky first up last preparation. Chris Parnham takes the ride on him here which is a positive sign and he’s probably the value at $7.00. He’s yet to place at the track and distance but he’s had excuses and is worth another go.
Hopefully Pike is awake to what’s going on in front of him today and isn’t too far off Beaucount, who will undoubtedly try and run them off their feet. He just got too far back on Magical Charm last start, who probably couldn’t quite keep up such was the pace, but from barrier 3 today he can be a bit closer and a bit more switched on to play catch up in time. Brother’s Keeper was luckless last start but continues to run well. He was only 0.75L off Magical Charm two starts back and is 2kg better off at the weights today. Deception Game is another who seems to be unlucky all the time. He’s up sharply from 1500m to 2200m today which isn’t ideal but he’s always around the mark.
Arcadia Prince isn’t weighted to win this at all but he’s a horse on the rise and gets his chance today against a field that looks to be on the decline. His last two wins have been seriously impressive and he remains at his pet track and distance today. He’d be much better suited in a handicap but he might catch a few of these at the right time while he’s on the up. Drawn well and can win again. Valour Road is the one that gets all the weight off the rest of the field. He gets in with 54kg and carries 5kg less than anything else. He ran well last start in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes, beaten just 2.75L by Voodoo Lad, which is great form for this. Damian Lane jumps on and he draws barrier 1 so two big positives there. The queries are the 1400m and the fact he still hasn’t won since his two-year-old season. Great Shot is the best weighted horse in the field as a Group 1 winner and he drops back to his pet distance today, but he’s had two gut-busters in the Railway and the Kingston Town and judging by his performances in those, he might be cooked. Pinzu won well fresh but Lane jumps off today and he gets bar plates on.
In Love With Paris has been pretty costly for punters this prep, losing at $4.40, $2.70 and $2.45. She once again comes up the short-priced favourite but she’s going to have to be at her best to carry 59.5kg to victory. She gets a good drop in class and also goes up in distance again, but she’s short enough given her costliness this preparation. Jeraft gets a big positive jockey change with Chris Parnham replacing brother Steve. Chris gets the best out of this horse and had ridden him to three straight victories prior to his suspension. I think he can bounce back after failing last start. Reveille charged home from last to go down by a whisker last start and Damian Lane keeps the ride today. I think the drop back to 1500m is some query for her and she needs a good tempo but she’s knocking on the door. Jeraft E/W for mine.
Royal Command is short enough once again given his four starts this prep have resulted in four defeats at $3.60, $1.85, $3.00 and $2.20. His effort last start was terrific, motoring home from the back of the field, but he’s going to need everything to go his way today with a rise in distance, rise in weight and a wide barrier. First Growth and Mr Alby both drop back to 1800m and a track and distance they’re better suited at. At $9 and $10 respectively they both appeal. Trump This was very good first up and had an easy kill at Northam last start. Pike obviously jumps off to ride the favourite but we lose nothing with Chris Parnham going on. The wide barrier hurts but he’s a horse on the up. Jaspara ($36) and Upward Others ($27) are two at huge odds I backed last start and at those odds I’ll be having something on both again today. Include in the quaddie!
Good race to finish off. Debellatio was completely luckless first up and his second up record suggests he’s going to improve from that anyway, which would make him very competitive in this. He needs a good ride from barrier 9. Notably, Pike takes the ride on Forceful who is first up. He jumps off the stablemate Truly Belong who had absolutely no luck of his own last start and went close first up. Forceful won three from three last prep but has drawn wide today in barrier 12. Still wouldn’t rule out him winning this.
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