The AFL season may have just concluded but there’s still plenty of footy for fans to enjoy, with the jam-packed AFLW fixture seeing games played almost every day. Round 6 in the AFLW will get underway on Tuesday night with Geelong vs Fremantle and as always, we bring you our preview and best bet for that match plus all other Round 6 fixtures for free below!
AFLW Round 6 Betting Tips
Geelong vs Fremantle
Tuesday 7:15pm AEST, GMHBA Stadium
The Cats have been unable to emulate last season’s strong form as they come into Round 6 with only one win. They were outgunned by the lesser experienced Hawks last weekend, and their sole win to date came against the bottom-of-the-ladder Suns. In another blow gun midfielder Amy McDonald has been ruled out for the next 3-5 weeks with a hamstring injury.
In contrast, the Dockers weren’t expected to do too much damage this season considering they don’t have the services of stars Kiara Bowers and Ange Stannett, while key forward Aine Tighe was also ruled out for the season a couple of weeks ago. However, the Dockers continue to play with spirit and enter Tuesday night with four wins and only one loss to their name.
The odds for this game are interesting. The Cats are the more talented team on paper and also have home ground advantage on their side, but the Dockers have been by far the better team this season. There’s every chance the Cats click into gear and produce a much-improved performance, but I think there’s definite value in the Dockers’ markets here.
Also Backing: Fremantle to Win $3.25 (0.5 Units)
Fremantle +11.5
$1.91 (1.25 Units)
Hawthorn vs Gold Coast
Wednesday 5:15pm AEST, Kinetic Stadium
Two teams with completely different form lines come together here with the red-hot Hawks taking on the winless Suns. Strangely enough, if this match was played in Round 1 the Suns would’ve started as the clear favourites on the back of their 2023 campaign, yet here they are as whopping 7 goal underdogs.
The Hawks have barely put a foot wrong this season and look destined to feature in the finals for the first time in their short history. Their only loss came a few weeks ago against the powerhouse Crows and they were far from disgraced.
For the Suns, they missed a golden opportunity to get off the mark last weekend against a fellow winless club in the Magpies, but unfortunately came up three points short. Rubbing salt in their wounds, key midfielder Claudia Whitfort went down with injury and won’t be available on Wednesday night.
The Hawks are the deserving favourites here but the line is just too big for me to be confident in backing, but I also don’t want any part of the Suns to cover either. Instead, I like the value in the goalkicker markets for the Hawks who should pile on the score here.
Aine McDonagh is enjoying a cracking season with nine goals to her name, including 2+ in 4/5 of her games. She’s solid value again here and is also worth having a go at 3+ goals.
Also Backing: Aine McDonagh 3+ Goals $3.00 (0.5 Units)
Aine McDonagh 2+ Goals
$1.62 (1.5 Units)
Essendon vs Sydney
Wednesday 7:15pm AEST, Whitten Oval
The Bombers’ season looked over almost before it begun in 2024. They began their campaign with a horrible belting by the Dockers while simultaneously seeing their best player go down with a knee injury. However, they’ve shown great resilience in the month since to win 2/4 of their games including a domination of the Demons last weekend.
The Swans have also had to contend with injuries to key players this season, with star duo Chloe Molloy and Ally Morphett both being ruled out the rest of the way. The Swans don’t quite have the depth that other more experienced sides have to cover such voids, and that was evident in their last start loss against the lowly Bulldogs.
The Bombers are in the much better form of the two signs and are deserving of their short price odds. With home ground also on their side, I’m happy to take the Bombers to cover the relatively small handicap.
Essendon -13.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
Melbourne vs GWS
Thursday 7:15pm AEST, IKON Park
Melbourne have had a disastrous season and if last weekend’s effort against the Bombers is anything to go by, then it won’t be turning around anytime soon. They were absolutely thumped by the Bombers by 65 points despite going into that match as the favourite, and they’re now third last on the ladder with just one win and 47.9%.
Elsewhere, the Giants began their campaign full of optimism with a 63 point win over the Bulldogs in Round 1, but have failed to feel that winning feeling in their four games since. Still, there have been some signs of improvement for the Giants this season and they’ve been in winning positions in almost all of their games.
On the back of their performance last weekend, it’s a little strange to see the Demons priced as the clear favourites. Yes, they’ve historically been a far better team than the Giants, but is that the case in 2024? I’m not quite sure and am happy to have a crack at the Giants to at least keep this one close enough to cover the spread.
Adelaide vs St Kilda
Friday 7:45pm AEST, Norwood Oval
The Crows succumbed to their first defeat of the season last weekend when they were overrun by the Lions in the dying stages, which also made it five straight losses against them. Still, there’s no shame in losing the reigning premiers by a couple of points on their home deck, and the Crows remain one of the great premiership fancies in 2024.
The Saints have come crashing back to earth after their 3-0 start to the season with losses in each of their last two games. They were severely humbled by the Hawks two games back and were unable to hold off the Dockers in Round 5. The Saints also have a growing injury list with six players 4+ weeks away from a return, which means their depth will certainly be tested in the coming games.
Although only five spots separate these clubs on the ladder, the Crows are the far superior team and they’ll be winning this game comfortably. The line currently sits at around the 27.5 mark, but with clear skies on the forecast, I can see them covering that with a few goals to spare.
Adelaide -27.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday 1:05pm AEST, Arden Street Oval
First up on the huge four-game slate is a fixture that will be extremely one-sided in favour of the Kangaroos. They’re one of the key flag favourites on the back of their runners-up finish last season coupled with their undefeated start to 2024. A big blow for the Roos is the injury to Emma Kearney who will miss the remainder of the regular season with a hamstring injury, although they certainly have the cavalry to cover her absence.
The Dogs are also missing some key personnel, namely Ellie Blackburn who will be sidelined for the rest of the season. And while the Dogs have shown plenty of fighting spirit in their captain’s absence, I expect them to cop a big hiding here. The Roos should be dominating this match and winning by a very big margin.
North Melbourne -40.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Richmond vs Collingwood
Saturday 3:05pm AEST, Swinburne Centre
The Tigers were beaten but far from disgraced against the Kangaroos last weekend, which put an end to their four-game win streak. The Tigers get a couple of handy inclusions on Saturday afternoon with Katie Brennan and Sarah Hosking both returning from injury.
Meanwhile, the Magpies have had a tough season but finally got the monkey off their back last weekend with three-point win against the Suns. The Pies also get a big in this week with Bri Davey returning after missing the last couple of games, while Grace Campbell is an important out.
The Tigers are the much better side in 2024 and the odds somewhat reflect that. However, I believe the line should be a lot bigger than it currently is and expect the Tigers to win this one very, very comfortably.
Richmond -20.5
$1.91 (3 Units)
West Coast vs Port Adelaide
Saturday 5:05pm AEST, Mineral Resources Park
The Eagles and the Power come together in the twilight fixture on Saturday, and what an intriguing betting game it is. The Eagles currently have the better record in 2024 with four wins to their name compared to the Power’s two, however the former has had a much easier draw and I think their record is somewhat deceiving.
The Power have put up a decent fight against some of the top tier quality sides this season and I think they’re a very much improved outfit across the board. They’ve battled through their tough portion of the draw and have five very winnable games to come in the back half of their year. With that said, I like the chances of a mini upset in this clash and am happy to back in the Power.
Port Adelaide to Win
$2.25 (2 Units)
Carlton vs Brisbane
Saturday 7:15pm AEST, IKON Park
It’s a one-sided matchup between the Blues and the Lions that will conclude super Saturday in the AFLW. The Blues are battling away in 14th spot on the ladder with two wins, while the reigning premiers, the Lions, currently occupy fourth spot and are on a five-game win streak. The match handicap is the best part of seven goals and that seems just about right.
With such a one-sided affair on the cards, I’ll look to the Lions player markets for some value here. Dakota Davidson, Sophie Conway, and Taylor Smith all represent value in the 2+ goals market, and you could lean any way there. For me, I like the odds of Davidson who will likely play the deepest of the three. She’s a reigning All-Australia full forward and should get on the end of a couple here.
Dakota Davidson 2+ Goals
$1.82 (1.5 Units)
Gold Coast vs Essendon
Sunday 1:05pm AEST, People First Stadium
The Suns remain the only winless team this season which is something no one would have predicted considering they made the finals last year. Helping their cause on Sunday is the return of All-Australian defender Katie Lynch, although star midfielder Claudia Whitfort remains on the sidelines.
The Bombers will get a huge boost in this clash with captain and best player Bonnie Toogood returning from the knee injury she suffered in Round 1. She returns at an important time for the Bombers who are in a great position to push for a finals berth.
The Bombers are clearly the better team in this matchup and have everything to play for. I expect them to bring the fight on Sunday and to come out on top by at least a couple of goals.
Essendon -11.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Sydney vs Geelong
Sunday 3:05pm AEST, Henson Park
The Swans and the Cats have both had very disappointing campaigns after both played finals footy last season, and the latter was desperately close to playing in the Grand Final. Both have had their struggles with injuries to key players in 2024, although their on field issues go a lot deeper than that.
Both clubs are still a mathematical chance of playing finals although it’s very unlikely the 16th placed Cats will feature. The 11th placed Swans, although with only two more points than the Cats, still remain a realistic chance.
It’s do or die for the Swans here and I think they’ll be giving this one their all. I’m somewhat surprised to see them as 13.5 point underdogs, particularly on their home deck, and can see them covering that and potentially winning altogether.
Sydney +13.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Fremantle vs Hawthorn
Sunday 5:05pm AEST, Fremantle Oval
It’s a cracking fixture to close out Round 6 with a pair of in-form sides set to lock horns. Both clubs have exceeded expectations to date and enter this contest with five wins and only one loss to their name. The Hawks have the superior percentage and are currently sitting inside the top four, while the Dockers are in sixth.
This is the second game of Round 6 for both clubs. The Dockers pulled off an upset win in Geelong to begin the round, whereas the Hawks did enough to topple the Suns in windy conditions on Wednesday night.
The Hawks have been given the slight edge in the betting market and I think that’s deserved. Their best in 2024 has been better than that of the Dockers and as long as they produce something close to their best here, then they should be coming away with the points.
Hawthorn to Win
$1.72 (1 Unit)
