It was upsets galore in Round 6 as Adelaide leapfrogged Melbourne into top spot on the ladder, with the Crows the only undefeated team. With just one game separating fourth from thirteenth place, we’ve got a captivating race to the finals.
Our coverage of the AFLW season continues, and be sure to head over to out AFL Tips page to stay up to date with our coverage of every round of the 2023 season!
AFLW 2023 Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast vs Brisbane
Heritage Bank Stadium, Saturday 5:05pm AEDT
The QClash sees a battle of fourth versus fifth in the most anticipated battle between the two Queensland sides in the history of the AFLW. The Suns will be riding high after a thrilling one point win against Richmond, while the Lions suffered a second half fade out in a five point defeat as Collingwood kicked the last four goals of the game. Both sides are level on sixteen points, with the winner of this clash likely to be in fourth place by the end of the weekend.
Tara Bohanna’s point on the siren secured Gold Coast four crucial points to keep their spot in fifth, and are now only outside of the top four on percentage. Brisbane’s defeat against Collingwood was remarkable given their dominance in general play. The Lions were +21 for contested possessions, +7 for inside 50’s and +6 in clearances, yet their inability to convert in front of goal was the only stat that mattered. Brisbane kicked 3.10, including 1.9 after quarter time as they failed to capitalise on a sixteen point lead at half time.
This proves as a major test for the Suns development, in a year where they have made big strides. One hurdle they’ve failed to overcome since their time in the AFLW has been beating the Lions, after a draw in the inaugural QClash, Brisbane have beaten Gold Coast by margins of 63, 69 and 73 points. The Suns have won three of their last four games by single digit margins and although they keep finding a way to win, that form doesn’t stack up against the elite sides of the competition. Although the result won’t blowout as much as previous encounters, it’s hard to go past the Lions given their average winning margin of 68 points against their arch rivals.
Brisbane -13.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
Richmond vs Essendon
Ikon Park, Saturday 7:05pm AEDT
A blockbuster Dreamtime clash on Saturday night is an absolute must win for both Richmond and Essendon. Back to back losses against Fremantle and Gold Coast has the Tigers outside of the eight, with their finals hopes slipping away on the back of a mounting injury list. Thanks to a Maddy Prespakis masterclass, Essendon overcame a scoreless opening quarter in an upset victory over Geelong. Prespakis’ 33 disposals inspired the Bombers comeback, as they kicked four goals to none after quarter time.
Essendon haven’t been a prolific team in generating opportunities inside 50, however they’ve been one of the most efficient teams scoring when they get their opportunities. In their last three wins, the Bombers have an inside 50 differential of just +3. Richmond are the polar opposite having generated plenty of inside 50’s but have struggled to convert. The Tigers have an inside 50 differential of +15 across their last three games, but only have one win to show for it.
Richmond have the biggest injury list in the competition including Sarah D’Arcy, Elle McKenzie, Caitlin Greiser, Jess Hosking, Sarah Hosking, Gabby Seymour and Charley Ryan missing from their best side. The Tigers have struggled winning close games this season, unlike the Bombers who have four wins by under 20 points. This will be a thrilling clash given the stakes, however Essendon will overcome a depleted Richmond outfit.
Carlton vs Collingwood
Ikon Park, Sunday 3:05pm AEDT
Old foes Carlton and Collingwood go head to head in another game between two sides in the logjam between fourth and thirteenth. The Pies are in eleventh place after a thrilling win over Brisbane, only one game behind the Blues who are sixth. Back to back wins has breathed life into Collingwood’s season, which looked almost over after starting 1-3. After looking vulnerable early in the season, the Pies defence held firm against Brisbane, holding the Lions to just three goals.
A convincing win over the Western Bulldogs has seen Carlton pick up their third win from their last four games, to put themselves in an excellent position to return to the finals for the first time since 2020. Wins in the key statistical areas laid the platform for the 19 point victory over the Dogs as the Blues recorded +37 disposals, +13 contested possessions +13 inside 50’s and +4 clearances. If Carlton can contain Bri Davey in the middle of the ground, it’s going to go a long way to giving the Blues control in this clash given their depth across the ground.
Although it was an inspiring win over the Lions, Collingwood were beaten convincingly across all key facets, with Brisbane’s inability to convert keeping Collingwood in the game. Carlton have put together a sustainable month of football with three wins and one defeat by just seven points against Richmond. This is set to be a thrilling clash between two establishing clubs of the competition, with top eight spots on the line. Although the Pies have plenty of momentum, Carlton’s consistency will hold them in great stead on Sunday.
More Round 7 Tips
Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs - Norwood Oval, Friday 7:15pm AEDT
Adelaide ended Melbourne’s undefeated streak on the back of an inspired performance by their experienced midfield. The Crows are now in pole position to take the minor premiership, and will be out for a big win over the bottom placed Bulldogs. The Dogs are yet to win a game this season, and will be in for a long night against the red hot Crows.
Tip: Adelaide -54.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
St Kilda vs GWS - RSEA Park, Saturday 1:05pm AEDT
Three straight wins has the Saints sitting outside of the top eight only on percentage. St Kilda have a golden opportunity to boost their percentage against sixteenth placed GWS. The Giants have a losing margin of 40 points this season, and the Saints won’t have any issues with the line in this clash.
Tip: St Kilda -14.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Geelong vs Walyalup - GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 3:05PM AEDT
A second half fadeout saw the Cats slip to eighth place on the ladder, with the Cats in the eight only percentage. Geelong will be looking to keep their spot in the eight when they take on the Dockers, who were smashed by North Melbourne in Round 6. Geelong have an average winning margin of 34 points from their three wins this season, and will be too good a Walyalup side that has never won at GMHBA Stadium.
Tip: Geelong -18.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Sydney vs Hawthorn - Henson Park, Saturday 3:05pm AEDT
Sydney have won two of their last three games and are a genuine chance to make the top eight, and have a golden opportunity to keep themselves right in the mix when they take on a Hawthorn side that has lost four consecutive games. A win will have Sydney on the brink of the top eight, and they won’t have any trouble against a struggling Hawthorn outfit.
Tip: Sydney -8.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
North Melbourne vs Yartapuulti - Arden Street Oval, Sunday 1:05pm AEDT
With Melbourne’s loss to Adelaide, the Kangaroos have moved into second place and will be looking to pile on more misery for Yartapuulti who have lost four of their last five games. North Melbourne have the league’s best defence, and it’s difficult to see the Power finding a way to challenge North’s defence. The Roos’ five wins have come by an average winning margin of 34 points, and they’ll be out for another big win at home.
Tip: North Melbourne -44.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
West Coast vs Naarm - Mineral Resources Park, Sunday 5:05pm AEDT
Naarm’s fourteen game winning streak came to an end against Adelaide, with the Demons surrendering top spot on the ladder. Naarm get the perfect opportunity to bounce back against the Eagles who are 1-5. The Dees have played West Coast twice, for two wins by margins of 59 and 78 points. Expect a big bounce back from the Demons on Sunday evening.
Tip: Melbourne -57.5, $1.85 with Ladbrokes
