The ladder is beginning to take shape as we near the halfway mark of the AFLW season. Round 4’s slate of football is headlined by a Sunday blockbuster between the Kangaroos and the Lions, and we’ve got you covered with our preview of this week’s action!
Also, make sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly for our best bets for every AFLW round, as well as all upcoming AFL finals!
AFLW 2023 Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
Kinetic Stadium, Friday 5:05pm AEST
Round 4 kicks off in Frankston on Friday evening as Hawthorn host the unbeaten Melbourne, who sit second on the ladder with a percentage of 271. The Demons three wins have come by margins of 42, 77 and 42 points, in what has been a dominant start to the season by the reigning premiers. The Hawks come into this clash on the back of a 13 point loss against Fremantle, as the Hawthorn defence couldn’t contain Aine Tighe who took twelve marks and booted three majors.
The Hawks backline who struggled against Aine Tighe’s height last week, are going to be in for a major challenge against the league’s best forward line. The Demons average a league best 85 points per game, and possess three of the top twelve goal kickers in the competition in Kate Hore (8 goals), Alyssa Banna (6) and Eden Zanker (5). That’s not even mentioning Tayla Harris, who leads the competition in goal assists. It’s a complete forward line that is going to stretch a young Hawthorn defence that doesn’t have the size, or experience to contain the Dees.
Although Hawthorn have been competitive this season, they haven’t faced a side that featured in the top eight last season and this clash looms as reality check for where the Hawks are at. Melbourne are on a twelve game winning streak, with their last loss coming back in Round 4 of last season. Hawthorn played two games against top four teams in Season 7, and lost to Richmond and Brisbane by margins of 35 and 54 points. The Demons have an average winning margin of 53.5 points in 2023, and will continue their dominant start to the season with another big win.
Melbourne -51.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
Carlton vs Richmond
Ikon Park, Saturday 1:05pm AEST
It’s a battle of eight versus ninth in a fixture that will have major implications on the shape of the top eight at the end of this weekend. Both sides currently sit 2-1, with the Tigers slightly ahead of the Blues on percentage, as both clubs look to establish themselves in the top eight. Carlton bounced back from an embarrassing performance in Round Two with a 53 point smashing of West Coast. A strong final quarter powered Richmond to a 19 point win over the Giants, with the Tigers kicking 2.4 to no score.
Monique Conti has once again been carrying the load for the Tigers, with the star midfielder averaging 25 disposals per game through the opening three games of the season. Carlton were torched by North Melbourne’s midfield in Round 2, and with their lack of defensive minded midfielders, they’re going to struggle to limit Conti’s influence. Richmond also have a forward mix that can generate scores from a variety of sources. Emilia Yassir, Katie Brennan and Caitlin Greiser all hit the scoreboard against GWS, and if they can kick straight, the Tigers are going to be hard to beat.
Richmond defeated Carlton when they last met in Round 8 of Season 7. Although Carlton have had a promising start at 2-1, it’s important to note that they’ve beaten the Suns and the Eagles. Their only game against a high-quality opposition saw the Blues kick just one goal in a 60 point loss to the Kangaroos. The Tigers know this is a crucial clash to set up their season, so expect them to come out firing against a Carlton side that has struggled to compete against the better sides in the competition.
Richmond -7.5
$1.87 (2 Units)
North Melbourne vs Brisbane
Arden Street, Sunday 1:05pm AEST
Sunday afternoon football kicks off with a huge clash as the ladder leading North Melbourne take on Brisbane. After failing to kick a goal in the first half last week, the Kangaroos rallied to kick four goals to none in the second half to overcome Geelong at Kardinia Park. After losing to Richmond in Round one, Brisbane have recorded consecutive wins by over 50 points, as they moved to fifth place on the ladder.
These two sides have shown some serious firepower up forward this season, with North Melbourne averaging 51 points per game and Brisbane averaging 65 points per game. With two potent attacking teams going head-to-head, the midfield battle will be the deciding factor in who will gain the upper hand. The Roos have the most inform midfield in the competition, with Jasmine Garner (averaging 32 disposals) and Ash Russell (29) the two leading ball getters in the AFLW.
With the way North Melbourne’s midfield group is firing, they should be able to give their forward line plenty of opportunities to kick a winning score. North have been getting the job done defensively as well, having conceded just 44 points across three games, the fewest in the league. The Kangaroos are the most balanced side in the competition, and will be tough to beat at home. The Roos were pushed to the limit last week and found a way to get the job done, in what will hold them in good stead for this week. This will be one of the best games of the season, but the Roos will be too good.
North Melbourne to Win
$1.72 (1.5 Units)
More Round 4 Tips
GWS vs Adelaide - Manuka Oval, Saturday 11:05am AEST
The Crows continued their hot start to the season with a 47 point win over the Bombers, and they won’t have any struggles against a winless Giants outfit that have an abundance of injury issues.
Tip: Adelaide -37.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide vs Geelong - Alberton Oval, Saturday 1:05pm AEST
A second half fade-out cost Geelong as they almost knocked off the Kangaroos. Port Adelaide will be riding high after a come from behind win over St Kilda, and should be able to keep this game close. The Cats will be too strong, but the Power are good enough to keep in touch with the Cats.
Tip: Port Adelaide +24.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Sydney vs West Coast - Henson Park, Sunday 1:05pm AEST
The Eagles have suffered losses of 53 and 73 points in the last fortnight, and are struggling to remain competitive against bottom ten sides. Sydney will be relishing the opportunity to pick up a rare win, and will add to the Eagles misery.
Tip: Sydney -26.5, $1.85 with Ladbrokes
Essendon vs Fremantle - Windy Hill, Sunday 3:05pm AEST
The Bombers were dished up a reality check by the Crows last week, and will be looking to bounce back when they host the Dockers. Both sides have been strong defensively, so this game should be a low scoring encounter. The Dockers provide excellent value in this clash against an inexperienced Essendon side.
Tip: Fremantle +7.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
St Kilda vs Collingwood - RSEA Park, Sunday 3:05pm AEST
The Saints squandered a golden opportunity to register their first win of the season against the Power last week, and now come up against a Collingwood side that they’ve never beaten before. Collingwood will win this clash comfortably.
Tip: Collingwood -11.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs - Heritage Bank Stadium, Sunday 5:05pm AEST
The Dogs are 0-3 to start the season with two of their three losses coming by over 40 points. The Suns have moved up to fourth after an upset win over the Pies, and put up 99 points at Heritage Bank Stadium in Round 2.
Tip: Gold Coast -19.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
