The AFL Grand Final is always one of the biggest betting days on the Australian sporting calendar, and Saturday’s decider between Fremantle and Brisbane offers plenty of angles beyond the standard head-to-head and line markets. With the Lions chasing a three-peat and the Dockers hunting an elusive maiden premiership, bookmakers have priced up a massive range of player options for the biggest game of the year.
Whether you are looking at the prestigious Norm Smith Medal, trying to land the first goal kicker, or targeting player disposal tallies and anytime goal scorers, the prop markets often present the sharpest value on the board.
Check out our best prop bets and exotic plays for the 2026 AFL Grand Final below!
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Grand Final Betting Preview. We break down the match and bring you our best bet and Same Game Multi.
AFL Grand Final 2026 Prop Bets: Fremantle vs Brisbane Tips
Norm Smith Medal
History tells you exactly what type of player wins the Norm Smith Medal. The last 12 winners have all been medium/small types, and you have to go back to Brian Lake for the Hawks in 2013 to find the last key position player to take it home. If you want a true key forward, you have to wind the clock all the way back to 1989 when Gary Ablett Senior kicked nine against the Hawks. A couple of small forwards have bobbed up over the years, including Bobby Hill in 2023 and Cyril Rioli in 2015.
Will Ashcroft goes into Saturday as the favourite at around $5 at most bookies as he chases his third straight medal, sitting well clear of the next in line in Luke Jackson and Zac Bailey at $10. With Lachie Neale out suspended, Ashcroft clearly becomes Brisbane’s most prolific midfielder. That raises the question of whether Fremantle will tag him. The Dockers rarely tag, although Matthew Johnson has done a couple of roles this year. If Fremantle can limit Ashcroft's impact, it could give them the edge in the middle.
If you think the Dockers will win, Luke Jackson is certainly worth some thought at $10. He polled the most Brownlow votes for Fremantle this year and has put together a fantastic finals series. He should also have a clear advantage in the ruck against the Fort and Draper combination.
For the Lions, Kai Lohmann holds some appeal at $26. He was one of the match winners last week with his incredible second half against the Hawks, and he also had a big Grand Final performance in 2024 where he kicked four goals. He backed that up with another two last year. Even though we stated how key forwards have struggled to win this award, Logan Morris is sitting at $51. Is there a world where he kicks five or six in a big Lions win and wins the award? Potentially.
I think Zac Bailey is the best pick for the Lions. At $10, he has genuine X-factor and consistently performs in big games. He has had another All-Australian year and should get extra midfield time this week if Neale fails to get off his suspension. Even if Neale does play, he is still a great choice.
Also Consider: Luke Jackson - Norm Smith $10
Zac Bailey - Norm Smith
$10
First Goal Scorer Market
The First Goal Scorer market is always a massive drawcard for punters on Grand Final day, and diving into Brisbane's recent track record reveals a very interesting trend. The Lions are notoriously slow starters on the big stage, having failed to kick the opening goal in each of their past three Grand Finals. Last year, it was Geelong's Ollie Dempsey who kicked the opener before Kai Lohmann got Brisbane on the board. In 2024, Sydney's Will Hayward struck first before Lohmann booted the next two. You can wind it back to 2023 as well, where Collingwood's Nick Daicos snapped the first major before Zac Bailey replied for the Lions.
When you look at this season's numbers, Charlie Cameron led the way for Brisbane by kicking the first goal of the match four times, while Logan Morris managed the feat on three occasions. Over in the Fremantle camp, Shai Bolton set the pace by opening the scoring three times this year, sitting just ahead of Michael Frederick, Jye Amiss, and Luke Jackson who all snagged the opener twice.
Given Brisbane's established habit of conceding the early advantage in deciders, looking towards a Fremantle player offers plenty of appeal. There is obviously a ton of luck involved in this specific market, but our tip is Shai Bolton at $18. He led the Dockers in first goals this season, and backing him to capitalise on the Lions' Grand Final slow starts presents some early value.
Also Consider: Kai Lohmann – First Goal Scorer $12.50
Shai Bolton – First Goal Scorer
$18
Other Goal Scorer Markets
If you are looking for value in the goal scorer markets for either single bets or to add to your Same Game Multi, there are plenty of options north of $2 worth considering:
- Mason Cox (Anytime Goal Scorer) – $2.85: Cox has kicked a goal in each of his last two games. He is worth a look if you think he can jag one on the big stage and ruffle some feathers.
- Isaiah Dudley (2+ Goals) – $2.75: Dudley has kicked two goals in each of his last two matches, including the sealer against Sydney last week.
- Eric Hipwood (2+ Goals) – $2.30: Hipwood has kicked two or more goals in four straight matches and remains strong value.
- Charlie Cameron (3+ Goals) – $2.95: Cameron kicked three last week and five against the Crows the week before. The upside is clear if Brisbane gets rolling.
- Shai Bolton (2+ Goals) – $3.30: Bolton is our tip for the first goal, but he has also kicked two in each of his last two games and provides great value to continue the trend.
Our favourite value play on the board is Kai Lohmann to kick 3+ Goals at $3.75. He kicked four goals in the 2024 Grand Final and two last year, which included the first two of the match. He lit up the MCG with a bag of five against the Hawks last week and enters in fantastic form. Take him for three or more at $3.75.
Kai Lohmann 3+ Goals
$3.75
Disposal Markets
When assessing the disposal markets, there are several strong statistical trends worth following on Saturday:
- Will Ashcroft (30+ Disposals) – $2.10: The Norm Smith favourite is a proven Grand Final performer, having racked up 30 and 32 disposals in his past two deciders. He has also cleared the 30-disposal mark in 10 of his last 13 games.
- Zac Bailey (23+ Disposals) – $2.15: Bailey was quieter last week but should see increased midfield opportunity here. He collected 23 disposals and had nine shots on goal in last year's Grand Final, and has reached 23 or more touches in six of his last 10 matches.
- Hayden Young (23+ Disposals) – $2.59: Young is peaking at the perfect time, coming off a season-high 28 disposals last week. He has reached the 23-disposal mark in four of his last five matches.
Our favourite disposal bet on the board is Caleb Serong for 26+ Disposals at $2.50. He is coming off 28 touches against the Swans last week and simply loves playing against the Lions. Serong is averaging 33 disposals against Brisbane across their last five meetings and has gone 26 or higher on each occasion. Taking him at $2.50 to repeat that output on the biggest stage is strong value.
Caleb Serong 26+ Disposals
$2.50
