We’re down to just one game on the Saturday fantasy slate this week, with Brisbane hosting Adelaide at the Gabba in a massive do-or-die Semi Final.
The Lions find themselves taking the long road through September once again after a disappointing Qualifying Final loss to Sydney, while the Crows kept their season alive with a strong 22-point win over the Western Bulldogs last Saturday. The winner moves through to face Hawthorn in a Preliminary Final, while it’s season over for the loser.
These two sides met at the Gabba earlier this season and Brisbane dominated, winning by 52 points in a game that produced some monster fantasy numbers. Lachie Neale racked up 42 disposals that day, Will Ashcroft had 36 and a goal, while Zac Bailey had 29 touches and three goals.
In team changes, Ty Gallop has been recalled to sure up the Lions backline, at the expense of Noah Answerth who is out with an ankle. For the Crows, Zak Taylor has recovered from his hamstring while Isaac Cumming is the unlucky player to be omitted.
With only two teams to choose from, the challenge on Draftstars will be finding enough points of difference without getting too clever and fading the obvious plays. Brisbane enters as the favourite on its home deck, but Adelaide arrives in good form and there should be plenty of fantasy scoring opportunities on both sides.
Let’s get stuck into Brisbane vs Adelaide!
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- AFL $70,000+ Semi Final Lions vs Crows ($15 entry) at Draftstars
- AFL $10,000+ Semi Final Lions vs Crows High Roller ($150 Entry) at Draftstars
- AFL $3,000+ Semi Final Lions vs Crows Mini ($2 Entry) at Draftstars
- AFL $1,500+ Semi Final Lions vs Crows Micro (50c Entry) at Draftstars
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Semi Final – Brisbane vs Adelaide
AFL Fantasy Semi Final Lions vs Crows – Where to Attack?
Two of the toughest fantasy teams in the league going at it in a Semi Final doesn’t leave too many holes to attack on this slate.
Both teams have similar fantasy profiles. They are both in the top three toughest to play against for opposition inside midfielders and the designated kicker. They are also better than the league average at restricting opposition general forwards, rucks and wingers.
The only area that the Crows concede points is to general defenders so the Lions backs may be in play.
The Lions have struggled recently against opposition key forwards, but it’s only a small advantage. The Crows do have three of the best key forwards in the competition so it could be a handful for the Lions if the ball is down there enough.
It doesn’t leave us much room to attack. We have to consider how effective the Lions were against the Crows earlier in the season, and we’ll also be looking at other factors such as pricing, matchups and roles with our lineups.
Looking at the midfield, you would think Daniel Curtin will once again be used in a role to give attention to a key Lions midfielder. My guess would be Will Ashcroft. Curtin watched the Bont last week and it really hurt his fantasy output. Similarly, Josh Dunkley will be asked to pay close attention to either Izak Rankine or Jordan Dawson to keep them in check. This generally doesn’t hurt Dunkley’s fantasy scoring as he is a tackling bull.
Game Script: Lions defenders, with a slight lean to the Lions who are warm favourites. Otherwise we’re looking to pricing, matchups and roles for our lineups.
AFL Fantasy Semi Final Lions vs Crows – Our Value Fantasy Picks
Conor McKenna ($7,250) could provide us with some value this week. McKenna hasn’t been bad in the forward line this season, but the Lions struggled badly to control livewire Tom Papley last week so McKenna was thrown back into his old back pocket role late in the game to try and stem the bleeding. The Crows have a dangerous forward line with some very damaging small forwards, so there’s a good chance McKenna could be used in that role again which might actually help his fantasy output.
Ryan Lester ($8,810) might be in play for the Lions this week. With the inclusion of Ty Gallop to support Harris Andrews and Darcy Gardiner to handle the Crows “Big 3”, it might free up Lester to get loose to link up more. Lester was playing tall last week, but will have a smaller opponent with less responsibility this week, so I can see him getting more involved. Still had a 77 last week and a 73 three weeks ago, which is decent scoring at this price point.
AFL Fantasy Semi Final Lions vs Crows – Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Hugh McCluggage ($11,230) has been discounted by many after failing to fire in his controversial return from injury last week. He’s held onto his spot here, and surely with an extra week under his belt, he’s going to improve? He scored a modest 70 last week from 16 disposals, however he does have a couple of tons this season including a 116 in late July before his injury. The ceiling is still there if he can hit his straps. With plenty of media attention during the week, I’m backing McCluggage to bounce back hard and hopefully at low ownership.
Josh Worrell ($11,570) is worth a mention after his incredible best-on-ground performance last week that included an AFL finals record of 19 interceptions from 34 disposals, 10 marks and a 116 fantasy score. As good as he was, the Bulldogs did nothing to help as they continually bombed it in long and did nothing to subdue his influence. I’d suggest the Lions will have put some work into him during the week’s discussions with Eric Hipwood ($7,650) will be the one who may play as a negating forward. Worrell is still an ok price and we know he has the ability to go large, but he may not influence to the degree of last week.
AFL Fantasy Semi Final Lions vs Crows – Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Josh Dunkley ($15,050) is just made for finals. Tough, hard at the ball and the man, and loves a contest. If the game is tight and contested then Dunkley is going to be at the bottom of every pack and hitting some bodies hard. He may not have had the massive games of some of his teammates, but he’s been very consistent this season with only one score under 100 in his last seven matches. Even if he’s given a role to run with Dawson or Rankine, it won’t hurt his fantasy scoring as he’ll still be around the ball and landing plenty of tackles. If you’re leaning to the Lions mids, then Dunkley looks the pick with Will Ashcroft ($15,850) likely to get attention and Lachie Neale ($14,640) looking out of form.
Here is our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for Semi Final Lions vs Crows
Weather Report for Semi Final Lions vs Crows
Brisbane - Partly sunny, 22 degrees.
AFL Betting Markets – Semi Final Lions vs Crows
Brisbane ($1.33) vs Adelaide ($3.35)
Line: Brisbane -21.5
Points: 179.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Friday Preview and Betting Tips. Our experts break down the game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
