A Queensland derby kicks things off on Sunday, as the Gold Coast Titans head to Suncorp Stadium for the inaugural clash between the Titans and Dolphins. With both teams being up and down over the past month, and potentially a spot in the top 8 on the line, there should be plenty of spice in this one.
Then, to cap off Sunday the Wests Tigers will look to come off the bye with their first win of the season, as they take on the Sea Eagles at Campbelltown. A desperate team under enormous pressure, can they get up for their first game of the season out west.
NRL Round 8 Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs Gold Coast Titans
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 23rd April, 2:00pm (AEST)
The Dolphins were impressive for 40 minutes against the Rabbitohs, leading 14-6 at the break. However, in the second half they were totally outplayed, as the Rabbitohs ran in 5 unanswered tries to run out 36-14 winners. Statistically, they weren’t completely dominated, indicating that it was more the star power of the Rabbitohs that opened this game up. They continue to punch above their weight, but the belief is starting to wane in Redcliffe.
As for the Titans, they played out a remarkably similar game to the Dolphins, as they led the Broncos 14-6 after 39 minutes, before a Herbie Farnworth try on the stroke of half-time got the Broncos on the front foot. A 33-12 second half performance put the game away for the Broncos, with the Titans losing for the 2nd time this season by 13+.
The Dolphins opened 1.5-point favourites before both teams were beaten last week, and the number hasn’t changed all that much, with the Dolphins currently sitting around 2/2.5-point favourites. The total has been hit though, with both teams’ below average defence causing bettors to back the over, climbing from 44.5 to 46.5.
Both teams are remarkably similar when it comes to attacking and defensive statistics, and I have these teams basically identical in power rating. The market is also relatively steady, with a common opponent being the Dragons, which both teams have faced in the past 3 weeks. Both these games closed close to pick em’, with the home field advantage being the only difference in the numbers.
So, the market appears close on this one, and I have a slight lean towards the Titans, but not enough to pull the trigger. The total is where I will concentrate my efforts here.
We’re not getting the best of the number this late in the week, but I still like the over in this game. The weather looks to be perfect, and with both teams struggling defensively, I believe the over is the play. I make a fair total 49.5 for this one, so will take the total with moderate confidence.
Over 45.5 total points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Wests Tigers vs Manly Sea Eagles
Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sunday 23rd April, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Tigers are off the bye, with their last game in round 6 a tight 6-point loss to the Eels. They dominated in all statistical categories, and must have gone into the bye feeling despondent that they couldn’t get the win.
The Sea Eagles meanwhile are coming off a huge 18-8 victory over the Storm in round 7. They dominated through the middle and were tremendous defensively, missing only 14 tackles all game and conceding just the one try to the Storm. They should be brimming with confidence.
As expected, the books re-opened the Sea Eagles larger favourites than they opened before beating the Storm last week, opening up 10.5-point favourites on Monday. The number hasn’t moved at all, with the line and total remaining steady all week long. Whilst my numbers all pretty much agree with the market, I’m going to predict a closer contest than anticipated matchup here.
Interestingly, every team has won off the bye this season, except for the Panthers. Whilst I’m not quite ready to predict a Tigers victory here, I can’t say I would be overly surprised if they give a far better account of themselves than they have done to start the season.
The Sea Eagles had a brutal matchup last week, both emotionally and physically, and could well be a little under done heading into this one. They’ve also only blown one team off the park, being the Bulldogs in round 1. They are susceptible to some lazy defence, giving up 30+ points 3 times in 6 games, and the Tigers could put on their best attacking performance of the season on here.
Whilst I’m probably going to look like a goose come Sunday evening, I’m going to back the Tigers to keep this close. In their 6 losses to date, they’ve only lost by 13+ once. I’ll hedge a little with a Sea Eagles 1-12 margin.
Other Bet
Manly Sea Eagles (1-12) - $3.20 @ TAB (1u)
Wests Tigers (+10.5)
$1.91 (2 Units)
