Easter Sunday kicks off with the Titans taking on the Dragons at Cbus Super Stadium, in a clash between two sides on the cusp of the top 8 heading into round 6. We follow up with two surprisingly impressive teams, with the Warriors travelling to Newcastle to take on the Knights. With all four teams arguably over-performing pre-season expectations, several questions should be answered coming out of Easter Sunday.
Check out our best NRL betting tips for Easter Sunday's double-header below!
NRL Round 6 Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast Titans vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Cbus Super Stadium, Sunday 9th April, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Titans are coming off the bye, so not much to report on here. In their last game in round 4, the Titans lost to the Cowboys 24-12. The main news coming out from the Titans camp is the loss of AJ Brimson (hamstring) and Kieran Foran (calf) for this week’s game against the Dragons.
Speaking of the Dragons, they obliterated the Dolphins last week 38-12 at WIN Stadium. The game appeared to be relatively tight early, however after the Dolphins lost Anthony Milford, the Dragons hit the accelerator and ran in 8 tries to 1 in the final hour of the contest. They dominated every statistic, as you’d expect, but we need to ask ourselves whether this was the Dragons playing well, or the Dolphins’ bubble finally bursting.
This one opened up prior to the round 5 games as the Titans 3.5-point favourites, before re-opening at the same number on Monday after the round 5 games were completed. Money has slowly come in on the Dragons after their impressive performance last weekend, with the number now sitting at Titans -2.5 juiced towards the Dragons. There’s a chance this game closes around a pick em’, so if you believe the Dragons’ form last week was for real, now would be a good time to bet them.
It's probably still a little early in the season to make a definitive claim on how much the bye is worth, but teams coming off the bye have covered in 3 of the 4 matches to start the season, with the only team failing to cover being the Panthers in round 4 against the Eels. Still, an extra week of rest has to mean something, so the Titans aren’t without their chances in this one. As mentioned, the move has been on the Dragons so far, so if you’re a fan of the Titans, wait as long as possible before betting them to get the best price.
These teams match up quite similarly with one another, with the Dragons slightly better in attacking stats, and the Titans slightly better defensively. However, both teams have been extremely poor defensively to start the season. Whilst I don’t see too much value in betting the side in this game (I make the Titans 2.5-point favourites – closer to a pick when considering the losses of Brimson and Foran), I do see value in the total. Despite the total (46.5) being the third highest of the season, I expect a mountain of points in this one, with both teams struggling to stop the other from scoring. The Dragons have gone over in all 4 of their matches this season, and I see that trend continuing here. It should be a lovely sunny day up on the Gold Coast, and I can see both teams piling on the points.
Interestingly, these teams met just 4 weeks ago, with the Dragons running out 32-18 winners, after the Titans closed 1.5-point favourites. Can the Titans get their revenge?
Other Bet
Both teams to score 20+ points - $2.38 @ Topsport (1u)
Over 46.5 Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors
McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 9th April, 6:15pm (AEST)
The Knights were surprisingly competitive last week, in a 32-all draw with the Sea Eagles in Mudgee. It was an entertaining back-and-forth match, with both teams scoring 6 tries and running for over 2000 metres. The biggest story from last week was the return of Dom Young on the wing. After being dropped in round 4, Young was re-instated and signalled that dropping him might have been just what the doctor ordered, as the towering winger ran in 4 tries, in a display that showed just what the Roosters are getting for their money next season.
The Warriors continued their tremendous start to 2023, with a huge come-from-behind win over the Sharks at PointsBet Stadium. With the Sharks leading 20-0 after just 18 minutes, the Warriors dug in, scoring 6 tries to 1 to come home 32-30 winners. They moved to 4-1 on the season, and sit 2nd on the ladder.
Only 6 weeks into the season, and we have another reverse fixture on the schedule. The Warriors hosted the Knights in round 1 this season, with the Warriors closing 2.5-point favourites in Wellington. In a tight contest that could have gone either way, the Warriors came away 20-12 winners.
For this clash, the Knights opened 1.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s matches, and after both teams looked good last week, the number opened the same on Monday. In another game where the favourite has flipped, the Warriors now sit as 1.5-point favourites on the road against the Knights. Both teams have over-performed to start the season, but I believe the Warriors have been a bit more impressive than the Knights.
I got on the Warriors early when they were underdogs, but I still believe they can cover the small spread in this one. It should be a tight contest, but with the Warriors getting back Tohu Harris and Te Maire Martin, they should look even better than they did a week ago against the Sharks.
The Knights faithful should be happy with their start to the season, but the Warriors should get the job done here and cover their 6th game in a row (only team 5-0 against the spread).
New Zealand Warriors to Win
$1.96 (2 Units)
