Three games for NRL Sunday this week, kicking off with the Warriors hosting the Bulldogs at Mt Smart Stadium. These two sides have been pleasantly surprising to kick off the season, and this should give us a better indication as to where they both are. Next up, the Knights host the Raiders in Newcastle, before we round things off with the big derby between the Dragons and the Sharks at Kogarah.
Keep reading to see our preview of today’s games, as well as our Best Bets for all three.
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2023 NRL Round 4: Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Mt Smart Stadium, Sunday 26th March, 2:00pm (AEDT)
The Warriors continued their impressive start to the season, as they defeated the Cowboys 26-12 in Townsville. Despite going down 6-0 early, and later 12-6, the Warriors dug in and won rather comfortably in the end. The Warriors managed to create 7 line-breaks, confirming their spot in the top 2 teams in the NRL at creating chances. If they can maintain this ability at breaking the line, maybe this form is sustainable.
The Bulldogs looked tremendous for 65 minutes against the Tigers last week, with their return to Belmore Oval in Multicultural Round bringing out a raucous crowd. They led 26-6 and were in total control, only to allow the Tigers to get right back into the contest, conceding 3 tries in 3 minutes, before stopping the rot to close the game out 26-22.
The favourite has flipped in this game since the lookahead last week, showing the market is excited by this Warriors team. And whilst I agree they have been impressive in the opening 3 weeks, they’ve gone from being double digit underdogs in their past two games, to favourites this week. It’s a much different proposition for a team playing above expectation, to continue that form when they are expected to win against a decent team in the Bulldogs.
As for the Bulldogs, they have been plagued by 5-10 minute lapses in their past two games, but apart from that have been ultra impressive in wins over the Storm and Tigers. If they can keep that in check and play the full 80 minutes, I like them to beat the Warriors in this one. The Warriors defence has been tremendous in the first 3 weeks, but I place a lot of that on their opponents, who have all struggled to score points to start the season.
It's not a massive edge in this one, but I like the dog to get the win.
Canterbury Bulldogs to Win
$2.12 (1.5 Units)
Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders
McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 26th March, 4:05pm (AEDT)
The Knights are coming off a loss to the Dolphins at home last week, which is ageing rather well, given the form of the Dolphins. However, with a further loss to the Warriors and a tight win over the Tigers, the Knights form doesn’t stack up that favourably. The Knights were beaten to the punch by the Dolphins, and it was their handling that really let them down, making 16 errors to only 5 by the Dolphins. If they can’t take care of the football, they will struggle to win games.
The Raiders chalked up their first win of the season, with an impressive 24-20 victory over the Sharks. It was a solid win over a good team, and showed that they can get the job done when it’s tight, after two close one possession losses in the opening rounds. They should take a lot out of the win, and be confident heading into this week.
The Raiders were pencilled in as 4.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before steadily drawing money on the re-open. They now sit around a 7.5-point favourite at most books, which I don’t quite agree with. Whilst the Knights showed plenty of ticker in their round 2 win over the Tigers, struggling to get much going against the worst team in the competition doesn’t bode well for them moving forward. The Knights attack has been pedestrian, with the team essentially hoping for a Lachlan Fitzgibbon run close to the line to secure points.
I have the Raiders as 9.5-points better on a neutral site, and if we’re liberal with the 2.5-point home field advantage, that would put my number at Raiders -7. I don’t give the Knights a 2.5-point home field advantage, after their horrid form at home last year (2-10), I believe the Knights have precisely zero home field advantage.
With Boombet offering Raiders -5.5, I’ve got to take it. Getting under the key number of 6 is huge value here, and I’ll take it for 2 units.
Canberra Raiders (-5.5)
$1.85 (2 Units)
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks
Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sunday 26th March, 6:15pm (AEDT)
The Dragons were impressive last week for 70 minutes, pushing the undefeated Broncos until the 71st minute of their contest. The game was all square at 18, before the Broncos put the afterburners on, scoring 4 tries in 7 minutes to win 40-18. A look at the stats shows the Broncos deserved such a big win, but the number of statistics they put up in the final 10 minutes makes the performance as a whole look a lot better than it probably was.
The Sharks fell to 1-2 after a tight 24-20 loss to the Raiders. As outlined above, the game was tight, and ultimately was decided by goal kicking, however the Sharks have to be concerned with their defensive woes through the first 3 weeks of the competition. If they can’t rectify this soon, it could be a lost season for the team from the Shire.
This is an historic rivalry in the NRL, and one that has been dominated of late by the Sharks. They’ve won the past 6 in a row, with two solid wins over the Dragons last season. With Nicho Hynes back, the Sharks will know that their season begins now. It’s a contest they will surely be up for, meaning if their defence is ever going to be at it’s best, it’s got to be this weekend.
The Dragons came into the season as many experts’ tip as wooden spooners, however they have shown over their first two games that they aren’t the worst team in the competition. They beat the Titans comfortably in round 2, before running the Broncos closely for 70 minutes last week. That’s a decent form line, and this week they get to take on their rivals in a matchup that will give a really good indication of where both teams are.
I’ve got to believe the Sharks are more like the 2022 Sharks in this game with Hynes back, and as such I’ll take them to cover the line. Without seeing how Hynes looks though, I’ll be keeping this to just a 1 unit selection.
Cronulla Sharks (-5.5)
$1.90 (1 Unit)
