Friday night sees the beginning of what the NRL is hoping is the next big rivalry in the game, as the NRL’s newest franchise, the Dolphins, take on the Brisbane Broncos. To add even more spice to the encounter, the winner will be the only team in the NRL with 4 wins. A massive top of the table clash to round out a massive Friday night in the NRL.
We went 1-1 last Sunday, with the Bulldogs allowing 16 points in the final 12 minutes ruining a perfect day, as we picked a nice little underdog outright in the final game of the round as the Raiders rolled the Sharks.
Check out our NRL preview and Dolphins vs Broncos best bet below!
NRL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 17th March, 8:00pm (AEDT)
The Dolphins continued their impressive opening to the season, winning the franchise’s first ever game on the road, beating the Knights 36-20 in Newcastle. It was tighter than the final score line suggests, as the Knights led 18-16 after 47 minutes. A strong finish though from the Dolphins ensured their 100% record remained intact, for at least another week.
The Broncos also maintained their perfect start to season 2023, storming home to defeat the Dragons 40-18. Again, this game was much closer than the final score would suggest, with the teams all square at 18 with less than 10 minutes remaining. 4 tries in the span of 7 minutes for the Broncos flattered them slightly, but there’s no doubt they are a force this season.
The Broncos were massive 12.5-point favourites in the lookahead line, posted before last week’s games, despite the Dolphins impressive start to the season. This was an obvious sign that the market was now viewing the Broncos as a legitimate premiership contender. The number has since settled into the Broncos as 10.5-point favourites, and I’d have to say my numbers agree. I have the Broncos as 9 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral site, and despite this being a “home game” for the Dolphins, the game is actually being played at Suncorp. I lean the Dolphins to keep this one tight, but the Broncos just have that ability to put up points in bunches, and a late flurry of points has me concerned.
Given the tightness with the line, I’ll shift my focus to the total in this matchup. These sides are the 2nd and 3rdhighest averaging point scoring teams so far this season, and with games played at Suncorp averaging a tick under 50 points per game, I like the total to go over in this one. We are finally seeing enough data in the new season to build a more 2023-ready model, and the confidence in plays will start going up over the next few weeks. For now, though, we stick with low staking.
Over 43.5 Points
$1.90 (1 Unit)
