We kick things off on NRL Sunday with a familiar team, as the Tigers head to Belmore to take on the Bulldogs, in what will be the Tigers’ 3rd straight Sunday afternoon game. The Bulldogs will be brimming with confidence, after travelling to Melbourne last week and defeating the Storm. Then, to cap of round 3, the Raiders will aim to win their 9th straight over the Sharks, as Cronulla head to the Nation’s capital to try and keep the Raiders winless for season 2023.
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2023 NRL Round 3: Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers
Belmore Oval, Sunday 19th March, 4:05pm (AEDT)
As mentioned, the Bulldogs were tremendous last week, doing what very few teams do and beating the Storm in Melbourne. Not only did they beat the Storm, but they also led them 26-0, with the final score line of 26-12 flattering the Storm. The overall statistics were quite even throughout the contest, showing that the Bulldogs did far better with football in attacking positions.
As for the Tigers, they were absolutely horrific last week. In one of the more insipid displays I can remember, the Tigers lost to a Knights outfit that lost two pieces of it’s spine in the opening moments of the game. It really was poor, and surely has Tim Sheens and his coaching All Stars looking over their shoulders.
Match Preview
Wow, the market has well and truly given up on the Tigers. After closing small favourites against the Titans (-4.5) and Knights (-3.5), the Tigers were 2.5-point underdogs on the lookahead to the Bulldogs. After their insipid display in round 2, and the Bulldogs amazing performance, the number re-opened at Bulldogs -6.5 on Monday. At the time of writing, the Bulldogs are 10.5 point favourites over the Tigers. That’s a massive change in the market’s valuation of these teams, but it’s hard to argue.
It's only a two game sample size, but the Tigers general play statistics don’t look too bad. They definitely don’t look like the statistics of the worst team in the competition. They are currently averaging the 2nd most running metres of any team, whilst conceding the third least amount of metres. This would indicate that their forward pack, and general go forward, has been solid. It’s their work when they get inside their opponents 20 metres zone that is lacking. Until they fix this, it’s very hard to side with the Tigers.
We’ve bet the Tigers both times to cover the spread this year as favourites, and they’ve lost both outright. I can’t do it again, so will side with the Bulldogs to continue on from their performance from last week, and give the Tigers a hiding.
Canterbury Bulldogs (-10.5)
$1.94 (1 unit)
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks
GIO Stadium, Sunday 19th March, 6:15pm (AEDT)
The Raiders looked good last week in patches, just as they did in Round 1 when losing to the Cowboys by a point, but both times they haven’t managed to get the job done. Defensively, they were solid, and they can probably put a bit of the blame on the conditions last week for their poor attack, but in general the Raiders seem to be playing better than their 0-2 record suggests.
As for the Sharks, they rebounded from a below average showing in Round 1 against the Rabbitohs to defeat the Eels in a 10 try thriller last week. It was an extremely close contest that could have gone either way, and it turned out to be the Sharks’ goal-kicking that was the difference. Despite the win, questions have got to be asked about the defence, with 53 points conceded in two games for the Sharkies.
Match Preview
One of the more astonishing records in the NRL goes on the line today, as the Raiders look to win their 9th straight over the Sharks. I usually don’t put a great deal of weight into these types of trends, as what does a result from 5 years ago have to do with handicapping the game today, but there could be something behind this. The Raiders beat the Sharks 24-19 in Round 1 last year at home, which was a solid upset, given the amount of hype around the Sharks heading into the season. They backed this up with a 30-10 win at Suncorp Stadium in Magic Round.
Away from the trend, there’s other reasons I like the Raiders in this spot. Yes, their record sits at 0-2, but they’ve come up against two decent teams in Queensland, where the conditions don’t exactly suit the men from Canberra. Despite the temperature looking extremely hot in Canberra on Sunday, the humidity from Queensland won’t be a factor, so the Raiders shouldn’t be as concerned with the heat.
As for the Sharks, I’m concerned about their defensive lapses. They have conceded 6 line-breaks a game, (2nd most), 38 tackle breaks per game (3rd most), and 648 post contact metres per game (most in NRL). They are also conceding the most points, and most metres in the NRL per game. If the Raiders can maintain their solid early season defence, they should have enough in attack to get the job done here as underdogs.
Canberra Raiders
$2.25 (1 unit)
