Super Saturday has a Queensland focus this week, with all 3 games taking place in the sunshine state. The first is on the Gold Coast, with the Titans hosting the Storm. It was a disappointing result for both sides in Round 2, so they will be desperate to atone for a poor performance. The second match heads to Townsville, with the Cowboys and Warriors, who were also unsuccessful in Round 2, facing off. It is set to be humid up north, so expect testing conditions for both sides. To conclude the night, the high-flying Broncos host the Dragons. These two teams are not short on confidence after a strong showing to start the year. It makes for a great night of viewing and as always, Before You Bet will have you covered along the way.
Scooby brings you his NRL Saturday preview and best bets below!
Also, you can now add our NRL best bets to your bet slip with a single click with thanks to the fantastic BoomBet Betshare feature. Just click the button below and our best bets for Saturday's slate will be automatically added to your BoomBet bet slip!
NRL Saturday Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast Titans vs Melbourne Storm
Cbus Super Stadium, Saturday 18th March, 3pm (AEST)
After a win to start the year, the Titans came crashing back to reality against the Dragons, losing 32-18. With a lesser share of possession, the Titans had an inferior completion rate (75%), made fewer line breaks (5) and missed more tackles (37). Perhaps their win over the Tigers in Round 1 was clouded by the quality of their opponent. A greater contribution from their key players is needed.
The Storm were upset by the Bulldogs in one of the biggest shocks of the round, enhanced by the fact that they were playing at home. Missing 2/4 starting spine players, it was always going to be a difficult task but an uncharacteristic display from the Storm saw them average fewer metres, make less post contact metres, fewer line breaks and miss 49 tackles.
The Titans are outsiders for this match ($2.60 vs $1.50) with both sides impacted by injuries ahead of this match. The is no secret that the Storm will again struggle with the players missing from their side, but they do welcome back 4 starting players to the team. The Titans are without Verrills, arguably their best player in the first two weeks, and will have a very difficult time trying to cover him. Assuming they do, this game is closer than the odds are suggesting.
You can rarely invest on a game involving the Titans with confidence and this is no different. The Storm should bounce back from their poor performance last week and continue the Titans losing streak against them (have not won since Round 10, 2017). You would think that Titans first match at home this season should count for something, yet with a 45% strike rate here (compared to the Storms 75%) further doubts are raised. The recommendation is to stay away from this game, but if you must have a bet, take the Storm to win by less than 2 converted tries.
Prop Bet
Olam & Grant to Score @ $8 – 0.5 Units
Storm By 1-12
$3 (1 Unit)
North Queensland Cowboys vs New Zealand Warriors
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Saturday 18th March, 5:30pm (AEST)
The Cowboys headed down to Brisbane with high hopes but left with a defeat and a few players unavailable in the coming weeks. Starting strongly, the Cowboys lead early but a 10-minute period without Drinkwater (sin bin) allowed the Broncos to gain an advantage. They will be better for that performance and a better share of possession would go a long way to improving their chances of winning.
The Warriors were not disgraced in their 20-12 loss to the Roosters; although, there was a sense that they were never in control of the match. Playing with strong discipline for majority of the match, the execution of the Warriors thus far is pleasing for this side moving forward.
The Cowboys are strong favourites for this match ($1.29 vs $3.60) and aside from the extra day of preparation compared with their opponents, the Cowboys home ground advantage may also be swaying punters. The Warriors are winless at this venue (Cowboys 50% record at home) and have only defeated the Cowboys twice in Townsville since 2011. It is a difficult road trip for anyone, let alone a team that was also on the road last week, traveling from New Zealand. CNK absence at the back for the Warriors also limits their effectiveness; he has been a crucial player in their opening two matches.
Returning home, the Cowboys should be able to handle their opponents but rather than find a lot of value in a match where a tricky line is set, the selection below is aimed at a high stake or an anchor leg in a multi. The Cowboys should cover this line, as opposed to the one that is offered. The discipline the Warriors have shown to start the season has to count for something.
Cowboys -7.5
$1.60 (4 Units)
Brisbane Broncos vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
Suncorp Stadium, Saturday 18th March, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Broncos made it consecutive victories to start the season, with their second win in as many weeks occurring in impressive fashion. They dominated possession (54%), completed strongly (80%) and running strongly with the ball (10.5m per carry & 665 post contact metres); such efforts will go a long way to setting them up for success in 2023 and they’ve rocketed up the Power Rankings ladder.
After a troubled off-season, the Dragons came out and performed well against the Titans in Round 2, after having the Bye in Round 1. Much like the Broncos, they dominated their opponents with a greater share of possession (55%), a better completion rate (82%), 9 line breaks and running strongly (9.6m per carry & 558 post contact metres). While the quality of the Titans is questionable this early in the season, you cannot knock winning form.
The Broncos are listed as strong favourites for this game ($1.27 vs $3.80) but the Dragons recent record at against them cannot be overlooked. Despite having a poor record at this ground (39%), they have won 6 out of the past 7 matches over the Broncos since 2018. However, this is a vastly different team to the Broncos of the past. After a tough finish in 2022, the younger players have more experience, and their forwards are dominating the middle. Their ball carry in the opening two matches has set a strong platform for Reynolds, Mam, and Walsh to build from. Confidence is key in rugby league and this team has plenty of it.
The Dragons will not be a ‘push over’. They have strengths in areas which may challenge the Broncos. Finding value in this match is also difficult; so, keep it simple in this contest and once they gain momentum, expect the Broncos to win by more than 2 converted tries.
Prop Bet
SGM – Farnworth, Cobbo & Mam to Score @ $11 – 0.5 Units
Broncos By 13+
$2 (2 Units)
