Sunday football kicks off with the Bulldogs hosting the Titans, with both teams coming off losses in round 11. Both teams have the bye next week, with a win here effectively handing the winners 4 points. Then, to cap off round 12, the streaking Raiders host the Sea Eagles, with the Raiders looking for their 6th straight win, whilst the Sea Eagles are looking to snap a 3-game losing streak.
NRL Round 12 Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Titans
Accor Stadium, Sunday 21st May, 2:00pm (AEST)
The Bulldogs headed into their matchup with the Warriors at home last week needing a win, after showing an uptick in form over the previous month. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs lost a game that they dominated statistically. Despite running for 100m more, creating 2 more line-breaks, and missing 22 less tackles, the Bulldogs just couldn’t get it done in the Warriors’ 20. A more efficient attack is needed, and they get a good chance this week against the team conceding the most points per game this year.
The Titans were looking for their 3rd straight win, as they took on the Knights last Sunday. After leading 18-12 after 50 minutes, the Titans conceded 6 tries in the final half an hour, with the Knights blowing them out 46-26.
The Titans opened 1.5-point favourites before last weekend, and that number hasn’t changed all week. My number for the game is around a pick em’, so I don’t find a great deal of value in this line.
The number that has changed is the total. Opening at 45.5, it’s been bet all the way up to 48.5. I completely agree with this move, and I make a fair total in this matchup as 50. So, once again, not a tonne of value.
Neither of these teams fill me with any confidence right now. The teams are currently conceding the 1st (Titans) and 2nd (Bulldogs) most points per game. For the Titans, at least they have been able to put points on the board, currently averaging 5th most points scored per game, while the Bulldogs are only averaging the 15th most points scored. This might have you leaning the Titans, but I don’t trust them outside of Queensland.
Ultimately, I trust the Titans to score points against this Bulldogs defence, so will look at a Titans team total over. The Titans have remarkably scored exactly 26 points in each of their past 5 games. They’ve scored 20+ in 8 of their 10 matches this year, so I’ll take them to get to their total.
Titans (team total) over 24
$1.94 (1.5 Units)
Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles
GIO Stadium, Sunday 21st May, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Raiders won their 5th straight last week, defeating the Eels 26-18 in the Nation’s capital. The Raiders managed 56% of possession, whilst outgaining the Eels 1635m to 1588m. The Eels appeared the better team for large portions of the contest, however once again struggled to complete their sets (69%), making 12 errors and conceding a whopping 10 penalties.
The Sea Eagles lost their 3rd straight last week, putting up a spirited effort against the Sharks, losing 20-14. The Sea Eagles were down 20-2 after an hour, however two late converted tries gave the Sea Eagles a chance. Unfortunately for the Sea Eagles they couldn’t get it done, dropping to 4-1-5 for the season, sitting in 12th place.
The Raiders opened -3.5-point favourites before last weekend’s games, with the number jumping between 3.5 and 4.5 throughout the week. I make a fair for this matchup Raiders -4, so once again we are struggling to find value on the lines, with the market starting to become very efficient.
The total opened up at 44.5, and this also hasn’t changed throughout the week. I make fair 43.5, so no massive value in the total it seems either.
The form line of both teams would lead me to believe the Raiders should get the job done here. I’m confident in this, so I will look into a margin bet that shows some value in my opinion.
The Raiders have won 6 games this year, with every victory producing a margin of 1-12. The Sea Eagles have lost 5 games this season, with two of those losses being by 1-12. Manly showed me enough last week against the Sharks that they are turning things around slowly, so I’m confident they can keep things close here against the Raiders.
Raiders (1-12)
$3.40 (1.5 Units)
