Even though Magic Round has been and gone, Saturdays are still jam-packed with exciting NRL action. The new team at the top of the NRL Power Rankings, the Rabbitohs, host the Tigers to open the afternoon of action. Upset in the corresponding game last season, they will not want to make the same mistake twice against a rejuvenated Tigers outfit. The second fixture heads north to Townsville with two struggling team in the Cowboys and Dragons doing battle. Separated by just 2 competition points, each need another win to overturn their poor start to the year. To conclude, cold conditions await in Canberra as the Raiders host the Eels. Consistency has eluded these two sides to far and with plenty of uncertainty around these two sides, anything can happen in this game. It promises to be another exciting Saturday of NRL action.
NRL Round 11 Saturday Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers
Saturday 13th May, Accor Stadium, 3pm (AEST)
The Rabbitohs flexed their premiership credentials with a dominant 28-12 victory over the Storm. Drawn into a tight contest in the first half (HT 12-6 lead), the Rabbitohs remained patient in the second half, took their attacking chances, built pressure, and relied on strong defensive efforts to close out the match. Their errors were not as high as previous weeks, while they also carried the ball strongly. The Tigers were also victorious over the Dragons, recording their second victory for the season over the Dragons. Proving to possess patience, the Tigers stayed in the contest via some impressive individual plays. Scrambling, resolute defence closed the match out, stopping the Dragons from stealing the result. They dominated most areas; with an 85% completion rate, they ran for more metres, had more post contact metres, and created more line breaks. The quality of their opponent this week will make replicating that effort very difficult. It is no surprise to find the Rabbitohs as strong favourites for this match ($1.15 vs $5.50). The line has been curiously set at 15.5 points, but the Tigers have not allowed a team to score more than 22 points on them since Round 6. This suggests their defence is improving. In equal measure though, the Rabbitohs have scored no fewer than 20 points in a game since Round 5. Their attack is firing and will cause the Tigers issues in multiple areas of their defensive line. They will likely cover the line, but the safer option is to use the 13+ margin as an anchor in a multi or with an increased stake in the bet.
Same Game Multi
Mitchell, Johnston & Walker to score @ $6 – 0.5 Units
Rabbitohs 13+
$1.65 (3.5 Units)
North Queensland Cowboys vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
Saturday 13th May, Queensland Country Bank Stadium, 5:30pm (AEST)
The Cowboys caused one of the upsets of the round last week with a 20-6 win over the Roosters. Starting in horrendous conditions, the Cowboys played with poise, completing far better than their opponents, and winning the battle in the middle of the field. More importantly, they appeared to have a strong defensive structure following an embarrassing loss to the Sharks in Round 9. It wasn’t until the 78th minute that they conceded a try. More efforts like that will coincide with a climb up the ladder. The Dragons were not as fortunate in their match, suffering an 18-16 loss to the Tigers. A chance of winning the game throughout, the Dragons failed to put the finishing touches on their attacking movements. Even with pressure building, they were unable to win. The performance may have uncovered a spark though, with Hunt’s shift to hooker allowing Sullivan to dominate at halfback. They have decided to go with the same approach this week; Hunt will start at halfback (in his 300th game) and Sullivan will come off the bench. The milestone match has done little to change the opinion of punters on the Dragons; they’re outsiders ($1.47 vs $2.70) with news only growing louder that coach Griffin will be sacked at the conclusion of this round should his team lose. That speculation will only cloud your judgement further. You must take each team on what they are offering here. The Cowboys performance against the Roosters suggests they are well placed to continue with that effort. The Dragons effort against the Tigers suggests the same, albeit, at the opposite end of the spectrum. Such thoughts also leave minimal contest in the outcome of this result. So, avoid betting on a winner and invest in the match being a high scoring contest.
Over 43.5 Points
$2.10 (1.5 Units)
Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels
Saturday 13th May, GIO Stadium, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Raiders opened Magic Round with a 34-30 victory over the Bulldogs. Two competition points are vital to this side, but they wouldn’t be completely convinced with their efforts. Starting strongly with a 1st minute try, the Raiders would continually allow the Bulldogs back into the match. They dominated just about every area statistically but will need to take such chances in future matches against better teams. The Eels were involved in the closing match of Round 10 and were upset by the Titans 26-24. Trailing 16-4 at HT, they fought their way back into the contest to have a chance of winning the match in the dying stages. Unfortunately, they came up empty handed, as pressure grows on this team who currently sits in 13th place on the ladder. They failed to take their chances over 80 minutes and the challenge only intensifies with Moses ruled out of this match; Jake Arthur has been named as his replacement. His absence is a large reason why the Raiders are favourites ($1.67 vs $2.20). The Eels also struggle at this venue; they have won just 5 matches here in 18 attempts at strike rate of 28%. Attempting to overcome that without their star halfback only compounds the difficulty of the task. The Raiders have experience troubles scoring this season, so expect a low total. The Eels dominate their opponents in this area but have conceded a high number of points in defence. Expect the Raiders to drag their opponents into an arm wrestle but eventually prevail.
Same Game Multi
Raiders 1-12 & Total Points Under 43.5 @ $5.50 – 0.5 Units
Raiders -2.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
