The 2023 AFL season is finally upon us which means it’s time to bring you our season preview. Here, we’ll be providing our ladder prediction, premiership fancy, wooden spooner, and more. So, buckle up and enjoy the ride that the team at Before You Bet will take you on this season.
Also, remember to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly to find our previews and best bets for every game, as well as our AFL fixture, AFL tipping comp, or Brownlow Medal page if that’s what you’re after!
And if you're having a bet on the AFL season, there aren't any better options than TAB. They offer a wide range of markets, competitive odds, and Same Game Multis!
2023 AFL Season Betting Tips
Premiership Winner
The top three teams in the betting market are Geelong ($5.50), Melbourne ($5.50), and Brisbane ($7.50), and I tend to agree that they’re the teams to beat this season and will be right in the hunt at the business end.
Geelong are obviously one of the favourites on the back of their stellar 2022 campaign which they capped off with a premiership. However, as we all know they’re an aging list and while they proved everyone wrong last year, it has to catch up with them at some point. On top of that, they lost their superstar leader and captain in Joel Selwood, who’s boots will be extremely hard to fill. The Cats also had an incredibly fortunate run with injuries last season and it’s likely that we see their depth tested a little more this time around. All things considered, the $5.50 about them isn’t something I want to take on.
After starting their premiership defence 10-0 last season, the Demons ran out of legs and perhaps desire in the second half of 2022. It was a disappointing end to their year, but the longer pre-season will certainly help them bounce back in 2023. The Demons added superstar ruckman Brodie Grundy to their ranks who will form a formidable partnership with Max Gawn. This will allow Gawn to spend a lot more time in the forward 50 and give the Demons a genuine target down there, which they haven’t had in recent seasons. The Demons also have a superb defence led by Steven May, and one of the best midfields in the competition spearheaded by Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca. They have all the necessary tools at their disposal and as such, I believe they’ll return to the form that saw them crowned premiers in 2021.
Brisbane are the other side that’s right in the premiership market and would probably be shorter odds had their finals form not been so poor in recent years. However, they’ve upgraded their roster in all three areas of the ground and are primed to make a serious challenge in 2023. Josh Dunkley will add some much-needed grunt to the midfield, Jack Gunston will add class and experience to the forward line, and Harris Andrews is now injury-free and ready to return to All-Australian form. There’s absolutely no reason why the Lions can’t hoist the premiership cup this season.
Also Backing:
Brisbane Lions $7.50
Ladder Prediction & Prop Bets
Ladder predictions in the pre-season are always going to be tough, but as you can see below there are seven sides who we currently have a cut above the rest, while Carlton and Collingwood will also likely be aronud the mark. It's also key to point out that 13 may not be the magic number of wins it takes to lock in a finals spot this season now that teams play 23 games (as opposed to 22).
We've used our ladder prediction to find some value in the to make/miss the top four/eight markets, as well as who's going to finish on the bottom!
I’m backing the Demons to win the premiership this season, so it’s no surprise I’m backing them to make the top 4. They’ve finished top 2 for two straight seasons and have only improved their roster heading into 2023. The Demons will be desperate to make amends for a disappointing back half of last season, and getting over $2 for them to make the top 4 is simply over the odds.
Melbourne to Make Top 4 ($2.05 at TAB)
After making the Grand Final in 2021, it’s no doubt that the Western Bulldogs would be disappointed with how they performed in 2022, yet they still managed to finish in the top 8. Josh Dunkley leaving isn’t ideal but he plays a position in the midfield that the Bulldogs are well-equipped to cover. Importantly, the Bulldogs added a key defender in Liam Jones who fills a big hole in their squad. I can’t see them missing finals footy this season, and have them more in the 4-6 range than a fringe top 8 side like the odds suggest.
Western Bulldogs to Make Top 8 ($1.80 at TAB)
Collingwood were the fairy-tale story of 2022 and almost made it all the way to the Big Dance. They were the most exciting team to watch and a lot of that was due to how close their matches were. The Magpies went 11-1 in matches decided by 11 or fewer points and while there’s a lot of skill involved in closing out so many close games, there's certainly an element of luck. Opposition sides would’ve done their homework on the Magpies in the off-season and they’ll need to go up another gear or two if they’re to play finals footy again in 2023.
Collingwood to Miss Top 8 ($2.50 at Ladbrokes)
The Hawks decided to go into complete rebuild mode in the off-season when trading away veterans Tom Mitchell, Jack Gunston, and Jaeger O’Meara. They’re now an extremely inexperienced side and while they certainly have a lot of young talent to work with, it’s likely going to take another couple of pre-seasons for them to be competitive. I see the Hawks winning between 2-4 games this season and 4 would be a good result.
Hawthorn – Most Losses ($3 at TAB)
