Two top four fancies will clash at the MCG this weekend as Melbourne host Sydney on Sunday afternoon.
It took a power outage at the Gabba for the Demons to switch on last week as they went down to the Lions by 11 points last Friday, so the home side will be looking to bounce back against the high-flying Swans in this 2022 Qualifying Final rematch.
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AFL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Sydney
Sunday 3:20pm AEDT, April 2nd, MCG
This game could well be the match of the round.
Melbourne head into Round 3 at 1-1 and on the edge of the top eight, after a disappointing loss away to Brisbane. Skipper Max Gawn went down early with a medium-term knee injury and things got worse from there, as the Demons struggled to get the ball going their way. Only a halt in play due to a power outage could help the Dees, who were able to reduce the margin to a respectable 11 points by the end of proceedings. While Gawn will be sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks, Melbourne will be bolstered by the return of Steven May this week, who will be expected to shut down Sydney champion Lance Franklin. Jack Viney and Bailey Fritsch should also be better for their run last week after injury layoffs during preseason. One massive point of interest this weekend will be how Brodie Grundy performs as a solo ruck, given that he has not played that role since crossing over from Collingwood. The dual All-Australian faces a relatively soft matchup against Peter Ladhams this Sunday, so he will be expected to give the Demons a leg up in a midfield battle laden with star quality on both sides.
Unlike Melbourne, Sydney will travel to the MCG full of confidence after they destroyed likely wooden spooners Hawthorn by 81 points. The Swans were far too good for the young Hawks – developing key forwards Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey kicked nine goals between them, while Callum Mills, Errol Gulden, Luke Parker and Jake Lloyd were also dominant in a clinical performance. Given the calibre of Sydney’s opposition over the first two rounds, don’t expect the Swans to have it as easy against the Demons on Sunday, who should be better equipped to defend Sydney’s electric ball movement. As previously mentioned, ‘Buddy’ Franklin is set to return for this one, but fellow talls Tom Hickey and Sam Reid are still some weeks away.
Picking a winner in this one is hugely difficult. Sydney have had the upper hand in the head-to-head battle over the last few years with four wins from five matches, and they really exposed Melbourne’s method in last year’s final. However, the Demons will undoubtedly have learned from that experience, and I believe they have more quality on paper. The return of Steven May will nullify Sydney’s scoring power, and the expanses of the MCG will stop either side from getting on a massive run. As such, a tight result is on the cards.
Either Team Under 15.5 Points
$2.50 (2 Units)
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Brodie Grundy 15+ Disposals – In the absence of Gawn, Grundy will take on the bulk of the ruck duties this week against an average opponent in Ladhams. When fully fit, the ex-Collingwood big man has been known to average 20 disposals, so he should tick off 15 on Sunday.
Jake Lloyd 25+ Disposals – Melbourne are renowned for gifting possessions to defenders, so it’s time for Jake ‘Seagull’ Lloyd to shine. Sydney’s designated kicker is averaging 26 disposals this year and he had 25 in last year’s final against the Demons, so expect him to repeat that feat here.
Under 168.5 Total Points – The last five encounters between these two teams have gone under this points total, with the closest shave coming in September last year (160). Melbourne always put defence first, so they will prioritise restricting Sydney in this huge clash.
Same Game Multi odds - $4.33
