On the eve of the 2023 AFL season, we thought we’d kick off our 2023 Brownlow Medal coverage with a preview of the leading contenders, and a few value picks, to take home football’s highest individual honour this season.
We’ll keep an eye on the progress of these players throughout the season and hopefully we’ll have a nice green book at Betfair by the end of the season, to sit back and enjoy Brownlow Medal night!
Top Contenders
Patrick Cripps ($10 at Betfair, $8 at Ladbrokes)
It makes sense to start with the reigning Brownlow Medalist, Patrick Cripps. Injury restricted him in previous years but he was back to his beast-like best last season and a deserving winner of Charlie. Cripps won’t have Sam Walsh to steal votes from him early in the season which is a big positive. However injuries are always in the back of the mind with Cripps, so while he’s an understandable favourite, he’s probably not a bad option to take on if you want to find value elsewhere.
Lachie Neale ($12 at Betfair, $9 at Ladbrokes)
The 2020 Brownlow Medalist fell just one vote short of Cripps last year in another excellent season. Lachie Neale is a proven ball winner and vote getter. He’s fit and reliable and will be up there again in the Brownlow count this season. The unknown is the influence of star recruit Josh Dunkley into the Brisbane midfield and what influence that will have on the others. Will it help or hinder Neale?
Touk Miller ($14.50 at Betfair, $13 at Ladbrokes)
Last year’s third place finisher in the Brownlow was Touk Miller. He’s a jet and stands out enormously in the very average Gold Coast Suns team. Collects plenty of ball and is now also attracting plenty of votes. The negatives are that Gold Coast simply don’t win enough games. He did poll well in losing games last year, but he would get more threes if the Suns won more games. He’s also entering the season under an injury cloud with a mild hamstring strain.
Marcus Bontempelli ($10 at Betfair, $11 at Ladbrokes)
While you could make up some reasons to avoid the first three picks above, it’s all looking rosy for Marcus Bontempelli in 2023. He wasn’t quite at 100% last season, so a full pre-season has Bont fit and ready to go. Tick. His role was also a hybrid mid-forward last season but with the recruitment of Rory Lobb into the forward line, and the loss of Josh Dunkley in the middle, it’s pretty clear that Bont will be primarily on ball. Massive tick. He’s a proven vote winner and a star of the competition. Buy buy buy!
Clayton Oliver ($10.50 at Betfair, $9 at Ladbrokes)
Clayton Oliver was tied in fourth place last season for the Brownlow after another excellent season. Super consistent, rock hard fitness and in a winning team are all positives. Oliver’s main problem is that he has to fight for votes with fellow superstars Christian Petracca and Max Gawn. This typically makes it hard for him to stand out and dominate each week.
Value Picks
Jack Steele ($20 at Betfair, $21 at Ladbrokes)
Taking $20 about Jack Steele is a great entry price for the Brownlow betting market and he looks an excellent trading prospect. Steele didn’t have a great season last year with a few injury niggles. If he can get back to his best, then he stands out in a weak Saints midfield. He’s tough and knows how to find the footy. After finishing equal 3rd in 2020 and equal 5th in 2021, Steele is a great value pick for this season.
Connor Rozee ($36 on Betfair, $26 at Ladbrokes)
Connor Rozee underpolled last year with Karl Amon the shock winner of Port Adelaide’s voting. It was the most-talked about discrepancy with the Brownlow votes last season, so will there be an over-correction in 2023? Quite possibly. Rozee is a star and he can have a damaging influence on games with his electric speed and silky skills. He’s one I want to have on my side on Brownlow night.
Long Shots
Josh Kelly ($85 at Betfair, $81 at Ladbrokes)
Josh Kelly is a proven ball magnet and can attract the umpire’s eye, but this season he doesn’t have to contend with Jacob Hopper or Tim Taranto at GWS. That means more time in the guts and less players to steal votes. Not the worst long shot going around.
Luke Davies-Uniacke ($85 at Betfair, $67 at Ladbrokes)
We concede it might be tough to get votes from the cellar-dwellers in the Kangaroos, but LDU looks like a genuine superstar and this might be the season where he becomes one of the elite players of the competition. It might not be 2023, but watch this space for next season and beyond!
Brownlow Tip
While it’s worth nibbling several of these players on Betfair, and trade throughout the season, to build a green book at Betfair, if we had to make one selection for the 2023 Brownlow Medal, it would be Marcus Bontempelli.
While many of the contenders have some excuses, the Bont is primed to go big in 2023!
Brownlow Winner - Marcus Bontempelli
$11
