Just eight teams remain in the competition and now that the second (and third) tier nations have departed, one would hope that the large score lines decrease. It looks promising on the surface but the leading teams in the competition will want to create as much momentum as possible heading into the Semi Finals. After a tough week last week, we are aiming to return to form with 4 selections that add to your viewing enjoyment by finding a winner. As always stay tuned to Before You Bet all weekend for great coverage across a variety of sports.
Rugby League World Cup Quarter-Finals Preview & Betting Tips
Australia vs Lebanon
John Smith’s Stadium, Saturday 5th November, 6:30am (AEDT)
The Kangaroos have played like the best team in the competition, scoring 192 points and conceding just 3 tries. They’ve changed their side for each fixture, aiming to find the right balance and this game provides them another ideal opportunity to build strong combinations. Lebanon was successful in progressing out of the group stage courtesy of a strong performance against Ireland. Their toughest match was a 34-12 defeat to New Zealand, a match where they were as spirited as any team. While not possessing the same quality as their opponents, they were willing to back their defence and attempted to build pressure in attack. The same is expected of them here but much more will be needed if they are to disrupt the momentum of the Aussies.
You’ll barely find a bookmaker willing to invest on the Australian’s, such is their class. Therefore, the value lies in the line (42.5). Lebanon have not only proven strong in defence, but their attack has also scored some impressive tries. They will be full of confidence following a dominant display against Jamacia. They will keep things close for majority of the match but ultimately, the strength of the Kangaroos on both sides of the ball should ensure the line is covered.
Australia -42.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
England vs Papua New Guinea
DW Stadium, Sunday 6th November, 1:30am (AEDT)
England have not been far behind Australia in terms of impressive/dominating form. They impressively defeated Samoa in the opening match, ensuring they would finish at the top of the group if they could account for Greece and France; both matches caused them minimal trouble. They will want another strong performance but will be wary of a physical PNG team. The Kumul’s finished second in their group and very nearly caused an upset in their opening match against Tonga, eventually defeated 24-18.
Always spirited, PNG will need to be at their best to cause an upset. They are outsides ($1.05 vs $10) and face an uphill battle. England have been dominant in all areas and will capitalise on a team like PNG who is prone to making simple errors (11.7 average in 3 matches – ranked 6th); furthermore, they have the highest amount of missed tackles of any team in the Quarter Finals (35 per game – 8th). The line is far too short, and the English are again being undervalued. This will be the perfect match for them to again prove their doubters wrong.
Prop Bet: Dom Young to score (no price at the time of writing)
England -23.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
New Zealand vs Fiji
MKM Stadium, Sunday 6th November, 6:30am (AEDT)
Many have the Kiwis a chance of winning this tournament. While this is hard to overlook, their performances so far have been underwhelming. Their 34-12 victory over Lebanon in their opening fixture is example of this. Perhaps underselling their opponents, it appeared as though they were relying too much on certain players to produce individual passages of play which would lead to tries. Still, with the power they possess in their forward pack, they cannot be overlooked.
Fiji pushed Australia in the first half of their opening match but were ultimately overpowered. They are a decent team on their day but lack the defensive structure to limit their opponent’s confidence (or points); they will eventually concede points as they are unable to successfully defend for large periods of time in a match. This is reflected in the odds, with the Kiwis strong favourites ($1.01 vs $17). They should be able to account for their opponents, mainly due to a stronger set of outside backs in attack and defence. There is also a major difference in the quality of execution from the halves; when it matters, the kicking game of New Zealand compared to Fiji will be far superior. This will build pressure on Fiji and eventually lead to points for the Kiwis.
New Zealand -30.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
Tonga vs Samoa
Halliwell Jones Stadium, Monday 7th November, 1:30am (AEDT)
The two best pacific nations face off in a Quarter Final blockbuster. Tonga topped their group but were far from their best. Close victories over PNG (24-18) and Wales (32-6 – conceded the first try and didn’t score until late in the first half) may be undervaluing the quality of their opponents but a far better performance was expected from the Tongan side. There is no doubt that they are a talented outfit, and they were at their attacking best in the final match (92-10 win vs the Cook Islands). Samoa was upset and embarrassed early in the tournament with a 60-6 loss to England. Hyped as favourites and given plenty of praise ahead of the encounter, Samoa was outclassed. The loss couldn’t have come at a better time for them though as it appeared to give this team a grounding needed to dominate their next two fixtures (72-4 vs Greece & 62-4 vs France). They too are talented and have a powerful team across the park.
Tonga are favourites for this contest ($1.50 vs $2.60), but you cannot overlook Samoa. They appear to have faster, more dynamic outside backs that, should their forwards dominate the middle, will mean a strong attacking platform to build from. The stronger spine is probably with them also, but only just. Tonga’s hooker in Soni Luke is proving that he has what it takes at the top level (there is a reason the Panthers were happy to let Koroisau leave). Confidence is low in the result though; these two sides can produce just about anything over 80 minutes. I have a slight lean towards Samoa in the head-to-head for all the reasons mentioned above but this game is worth watching rather than having a large investment on.
Samoa H2H
$2.60 (0.5 Units)
