The end of the 2022 home and away season is just a blink away, as we head into the penultimate round of the year. As outlined by the lopsided score lines seen last week, several teams have given up on the season, whilst others try and ramp up their push towards Premiership glory.
First up on Friday night, we see the Penrith Panthers hosting the New Zealand Warriors, in a matchup that will see the Panthers presented with the J.J. Giltinan Shield, after winning their second Minor Premiership in three years. The Warriors were woeful last week in an analogous situation to this one, so there appears to be only one way this match will go.
Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors Betting Tips
BlueBet Stadium, Friday 26th August, 6:00pm (AEST)
Squads
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Taylan May 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo. INTERCHANGE: 14. Mitch Kenny 15. Matt Eisenhuth 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Charlie Staines. RESERVES: 18. Sunia Turuva 19. J’maine Hopgood 20. Chris Smith 21. Kurt Falls 22. Lindsay Smith
New Zealand Warriors
1. Reece Walsh 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Viliami Vailea 4. Marcelo Montoya 5. Edward Kosi 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Tohu Harris 11. Euan Aitken 12. Josh Curran 13. Bunty Afoa. INTERCHANGE: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Dunamis Lui 16. Eliesa Katoa 17. Tom Ale. RESERVES: 18. Adam Pompey 20. Rocco Berry 21. Ben Murdoch-Masila 22. Daejarn Asi 23. Taniela Otukolo
Match Preview
For now, this is the largest spread of the season at 29.5, which is kind of scary considering the Panthers are missing their best player. In round 15 these teams played at Moreton Daily Stadium in Redcliffe, where the Panthers with Cleary won 40-6 as 27.5-point favourites. It’s hard to argue with the spread, given the mediocre performance from the Warriors last week against the Cowboys, and the Panthers are no doubt pumped for a big night, with their home fans in attendance to see them presented as Minor Premiers of season 2022.
A look back at that round 15 matchup showed a massive disparity in class. The possession was 50/50 and the Panthers conceded almost three times as many penalties as the Warriors, whilst also making more errors. Despite this, they still managed a 34-point pummelling, where the Warriors didn’t even sniff the try line until the 75th minute.
The number was Panthers -16.5 on the lookahead, then opened on Monday morning at -20.5, so the best of the number is long gone. Given that, it’s hard to make a huge case for the Panthers to cover, even though I believe they will. With the total also creeping up from 46.5 to 50.5, betting early in the week this late in the season is the way to go, with the books having trouble adjusting to the one-sided matches occurring this late in the year. It also means they are moving them, fast, so if you aren’t quick, you’re missing out.
With the market moving so aggressively, our bet this week is going to be conservative in unit size, however the actual bet is a little left field. I’m tempted to suggest the Panthers hold the Warriors to 0 points, however I will give myself a little leeway with the alt team total under for the Warriors.
In team news, both sides welcome back their five eighths, with Chanel Harris-Tavita back for the Warriors, whilst the Panthers received a boost with the early return of Jarome Luai. The Panthers also welcome back prop forward James Fisher-Harris from a two-week suspension.
Props: Panthers (Team Total) Over 49.5 - $3.60 @ Topsport
Brian To’o, Izack Tago, Viliame Kikau, Liam Martin (Anytime Try Scorers) - $21 @ Bet365
Warriors (Alt. Team Total) Under 6.5
$2.30 (1.5 Units)
