After a 4-week summer break for the teams and drivers, Formula 1 returns at the famous Spa-Francorchamps circuit in Stavelot for the 2022 Belgian Grand Prix.
The summer break is usually a time for the driver silly season to come to the fore, and it did early with the news of Seb Vettel announcing his retirement at the end of the season. This set off a chain reaction that was highly contentious. First, Fernando Alonso signed on with Aston Martin to take over from Vettel. It was then anticipated, and confirmed by Alpine, that Australian prodigy Oscar Piastri would take the seat vacated by Alonso. Piastri famously tweeted he was unaware of this appointment, claiming he would not be driving for Alpine in 2023. Days later, it was claimed Piastri would take Ricciardo’s seat at McLaren in 2023, however at the time of writing this is still up in the air. What drama! It should be an interesting few episodes of drive to survive in a year’s time!
2022 Formula 1 Betting Tips
Hungarian Grand Prix Review
Back to the action on track, and the Hungarian Grand Prix will again be remembered as another missed opportunity for Ferrari and Charles Leclerc. After George Russell took a spectacular pole position, he led early from Sainz and Leclerc, whilst Verstappen had to chase from 10th after an issue in qualifying. Crucially for Verstappen, he managed to stay within touching distance of the top runners, climbing up to 6th within the first 7 laps.
Russell and Verstappen pitted on lap 16, allowing the Ferrari pair of Sainz and Leclerc to assume 1st and 2nd, however with only a 10-second gap back to Verstappen prior to his stop, Ferrari needed to get their decision-making right. They didn’t, panicking into stopping Sainz immediately and effectively ruining his chances of winning. They still had the chance to do right by Leclerc, and after pitting him on lap 22, that chance remained. They missed a trick by not putting soft tyres on Leclerc, however the race was still in their hands, with the order now Russell, Leclerc, Sainz, Verstappen.
Leclerc took the lead on lap 31, and it looked very good for the Ferrari driver. Verstappen pitted on lap 39, putting on medium tyres. Then, concerned with being undercut by Verstappen, Ferrari decided to pit Leclerc and put hard tyres on, which had been proven to be horrible race tyres. It effectively ruined Leclerc’s race, with Verstappen able to overtake him easily and stroll to victory. Hamilton and Russell rounded out the podium, with Ferrari unbelievably finishing 4th (Sainz) and 6th (Leclerc), giving Red Bull and Verstappen huge leads heading into the summer break.
Belgian Grand Prix Preview
With little data to investigate from the race last season (race red flagged after 3 laps), we will look more into this season’s data, and how the cars perform at certain types of circuits. With Spa having long straights, a mix of high and medium speed corners and an undulating layout, the order at the front of the field will look relatively similar to what we have become accustomed to. Leclerc and Verstappen will likely battle for pole position, however ultimately, I cannot go past Verstappen in the race. The Mercedes pair will be solid in qualifying; however, their race performance will be better, and by the end of the race they will both be knocking on the door of a podium.
In the midfield, look for the McLaren to qualify well, however fall back generally in the race due to its high tyre degradation. Alpine will perform well, as will the Haas and Alfa Romeo’s. There is some decent value in the lower half of the midfield to score points, and we will look for the best value to bet this week.
I see the value at the front of the field being in Leclerc on Saturday, however I simply cannot bet Leclerc to win the race. Not only does the Red Bull seem to be the better race day car, but they are also the far superior team in race strategy, and Verstappen is so mentally strong now that he has the edge over Leclerc. As always here, there’s the potential of some serious weather, so a crazy race is always a possibility. Hopefully, this isn’t the last time we see these cars go around at this historic circuit, but you never know.
Other Bets:
Charles Leclerc (Pole Position) - $2.75 @ NEDS (2 Units)
George Russell (Top 3) - $2.62 @ Betfair (1 Unit)
Mick Schumacher (Top 10) - $3.50 @ Unibet (1 Unit)
Alpine (Both Cars Top 10) - $1.80 @ Unibet (2 Units)
Max Verstappen (Race Winner)
$2.12 (4 Units)
