The Ballarat Cup is the race of the day in Victoria on a day with 10 competitive races on the program.
Atishu is the current favourite for Chris Waller and Damien Oliver and will be hard to beat after winning well on Stakes Day at Flemington a fortnight ago.
Race one gets underway at 12:10pm with gallopers expected to be running on a Soft track.
As is often the case at Ballarat, light showers are forecast on the day.
Ballarat Racing Tips: Saturday November 19th
Best Bet: Race 1
(6) Hypothetical can get us underway to a good start to Cup Day at Ballarat and she will be one that settles on pace so barrier 11 won't worry him. She is third up this time and she did win third up last campaign at Sale over 1106m. Ben Melham has ridden her well the last couple of runs and she will find this race a little easier compared to her Flemington run last start when third.
(11) Defining is first up for Team McEvoy and she did run well when first up last prep when beaten less than a length at Warrnambool after being backed into $2.80 favourite.
(10) Belle Et Riche is another who is first up, and she will be one to watch late.
(9) For Real Life was only 2.3L behind Asfoora two starts back and then backed that up with a good second at The Valley last start. Zero from three on Soft ground is the concern though.
(6) Hypothetical WIN
$3.00 (2 Units)
Next Best: Race 10
(11) Green Fly was very good when running in Australia for the first time on Melbourne Cup Day. He finished fifth to Detonator Jack, who is the likely fav in this race, but this time Jack goes up a massive 6.5kg in weight.
The Fly has barrier 14 and will likely get back but will be running on late.
(7) Munhamek was in that same race on Cup Day and was the beaten favourite when second only beaten 1L. Has a good record at the distance and has to be respected.
(3) The Garden is a horse I really like but I think he may get tired over the last 100m but can hang on to a placing. Loves Soft tracks.
(1) Detonator Jack has to be put in with Johnny Allen on top. Has to carry 60.5kgs though.
(11) Green Fly WIN
$10 (1 Unit)
Value Bet: Race 4
(4) Najem Suhail is still learning but has shown me enough to suggest that he shouldn't be $8 in this race. First up he was poor for Jamie Kah when sixth after starting favourite but looking back it looks as though he wasn't ready then. Two starts later he got up at Sale at ridiculous odds of 20-1 and then last start the stable tried different tactics on him and made him settle back in the run before he unleashed a good run to finish 2nd (Flemington). His only real failure was on Soft ground which we have to take into consideration.
(9) Ice Pick Nick is first up and has a wide barrier (12) but is down in class. He was third to Jimmy The Bear at his latest outing and Jimmy would probably win this race.
(8) Screwed Down is very consistent and very fit. He will be one running on late.
(14) Libiamo has drawn poorly in 16 but is better than his last two runs show. Soft track a concern.
(4) Najem Suhail WIN
$8 (2 Units)
Ballarat Cup: Race 8
(13) Lord Vladivostok is good odds at 10-1 but in saying that does need a lot of luck in his races as he does get back a long way in his races at times and needs luck. He hasn't had much luck this prep and should have won at Murray Bridge three starts back and at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day, but that's the kind of horse he is. He has been beaten under a length in his last five starts but does have an astute trainer in Michael Hickmott. Harry Coffey takes the ride.
(13) Lord Vladivostok WIN
$10 (2 Units)
Quaddie Tips
Leg one: 1,3,4,8, 11
Leg two: 4, 13
Leg three: 2, 5, 7, 15
Leg four: 7, 11
