What an incredible fortnight of tennis we’ve witnessed this year at the Australian Open! 128 players went to war in both the men’s and women’s draw and now only two remain. Here, we preview both final’s and bring you our best betting tips!
2022 Australian Open Final Betting Tips
Ash Barty vs Danielle Collins (Saturday 7:30pm AEDT)
Ash Barty entered the Australian Open with an enormous amount of pressure on her, with the 25-year-old battling both the tag of world #1, as well as the expectation of Australians who are desperate to see one of their own take out their home tournament. Moreover, Barty had surprisingly ‘struggled’ on the hard court surface in Grand Slams (Australian Open and US Open), with here two GS titles to date coming on the red dirt in Paris and the grass at Wimbledon.
Barty has shown absolutely no sign of nerves at any stage during her six matches en route to the final. The Aussie has won each match in straight sets and has had her serve broken just once, which came against an American in the fourth round in Amanda Anisimova. Barty will be shooting for her third GS title in as many finals and can become just one US Open title away from a career Grand Slam.
Danielle Collins has flown under the radar over the past fortnight in Melbourne, with the 28-year-old American continuing on from her breakout 2021 season to reach her first GS final. Collins entered the tournament with a world ranking of 30, but will make her debut top 10 appearance at the conclusion of this tournament, regardless of what happens in Saturday night’s final.
Collins best ever result in a GS came three years ago in Melbourne where she made a shock run to the semi-final, but the now top ranked American has already gone at least one step further this time around in what’s clearly her favourite tournament and conditions to play under. This will be just the third tour level final of Collins’ career to date, with the other two coming in her fantastic 2021 campaign, both of which she came out victorious.
Head-to-head: These players have faced each other a total of four occasions spanning from 2019-2021 and Ash Barty leads the H2H count 3-1. The Aussie won the pairs first three meetings; two on clay and one on hard court, but the American hit back in their most recent meeting, which came on the hard courts in Adelaide last year.
Prediction: Ash Barty will start as the very short-priced favourite on Saturday night and deservingly so when you consider her experience and success at this stage in grand slams. However, Danielle Collins is one of the form players on the women’s circuit at the moment and will take some confidence from her victory against Barty in their most recent meeting.
All things considered; Barty should be too strong over three sets but is certainly short enough in the market, which requires us to be a little bit more creative. With that said, we believe Collins has the game and the confidence at the moment to put up a decent enough challenge to give us at least 19 total games in the match.
Ash Barty + Over 18.5 Games
Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev (Sunday 7:30pm AEDT)
Rafael Nadal continues his quest to win his 21st career GS title to become the winningest player in men’s history for such tournaments. The 35-year-old has found the Australian Open to be the toughest major to win out of the four, saluting just once here (2009) and finishing as runner-up on a further four instances (2012, ’14, ’17, ’19), two of which came against world #1 Novak Djokovic who was unable to participate at the AO this year.
Nadal has had a relatively comfortably run to the final with only one of his matches going the distance, which was against Denis Shapovalov in the quarterfinal. Perhaps the most impressive of the Spaniard’s victories en route to Sunday night’s match was his most recent one against the dangerous Matteo Berrettini, who he solved in a dominant four set display.
Daniil Medvedev finally broke through for his maiden GS title at the US Open last year and is keen to go on with it and make it back-to-back major titles. Hard courts are clearly the Russian’s preferred surface, with Sunday night’s match set to be his third final on such courts, while he’s yet to advance beyond the quarterfinals on both grass and clay.
The soon to be 26-year-old was upgraded to the #1 seed in the tournament when Djokovic was unable to partake and he’s certainly fit the billing so far. He’s had to negotiate a tricky Round 2 matchup against the enigmatic Nick Kyrgios, as well as come from two sets to love down against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals, before most recently taking care of business against superstar Stefanos Tsitsipas in four sets.
Head-to-head: This will be just the fifth meeting between these two champions with those matches spanning from 2019 to the present. All four of their completed matches to date have been on hard courts and only one of those has been in a GS, which was at the US Open in 2019. Rafael Nadal leads the H2H count 3-1, but the most recent meeting went the way of the Russian, with Medvedev prevailing 2-1 in the 2020 Tour Finals.
Prediction: Despite leading the H2H count and having 20 GS titles under his belt, Rafael Nadal will start as the underdog in the AO final on Sunday night. Daniil Medvedev has quickly become the second-best player on hard courts in the world behind only Novak Djokovic and will benefit greatly from his recent triumph at the US Open. The court conditions in Melbourne certainly suit the Russian’s game far more than the Spaniard’s, but the crowd will do everything they can to get Nadal his 21st GS title.
Daniil Medvedev is now a proven performer in big matches and is the deserving favourite in the final in our opinion. In saying that, Rafael Nadal is one of the toughest competitors in world sport and will be sure to push the Russian all the way on Sunday night. Regardless, the #1 seed should be too good in these conditions and should be able to negotiate the win in what should be a very tough and competitive match.
Value: Medvedev & O42.5 Games ($3.60) - TAB