The second game on Saturday night sees Brisbane heading to Adelaide Oval to take on the Crows at 7:40pm. Can the Crows bounce back from consecutive smashings? Or will the Lions move to 8-1?
Jack Tobin has got you covered with his preview for this clash and make sure to check out our AFL Tips page for previews and tips for every game of the 2022 AFL Season.
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 14th May, 7:40pm AEST
Injuries: Paul Seedsman, Rory Sloane
After being subbed out with a neck injury against Carlton, Lachlan Murphy has been cleared of any serious damage meaning Rory Sloane and Paul Seedsman are the only players on Adelaide's injury list. Brodie Smith and Ned McHenry have cleared concussion protocols after missing last week, while Riley Thilthorpe is out of health & safety protocols and will be available for selection. Check out our full AFL injury list heading into Round 9.
After a 3-3 start to the season, the Crows have been on the end of 59 and 48 point losses in the last two weeks. The 48 point defeat to Carlton last week flattered the Crows, who trailed by 68 points in the last quarter before the Blues put the cue in the rack. Rory Sloane’s absence from the Adelaide midfield has begun to take a toll, with the Crows midfield being dominated in the last fortnight. In the last two games the Crows are -41 for contested possessions, -16 in clearances, -83 for disposals and -32 for inside 50’s.
Adelaide have struggled forward of centre this season, ranking 14th for inside 50’s and 14th for scoring this season averaging just 77 points per game. Coming up against the highest scoring team in the AFL, the Crows are going to have to make this game a scrap as they did against the Bulldogs in Round 5 if they’re to be competitive.
Injuries: Joe Daniher, Dan McStay, Kai Lohmann
The Lions have a small injury list, but it’s a costly one with Dan McStay joining Joe Daniher on the sidelines for the next three weeks with an ankle injury. The Lions key forward stocks are on thin ice and they may be forced to bring Eric Hipwood straight back into the senior side without a game in the VFL.
Brisbane are beginning to firm as Melbourne’s biggest challenger in 2022, following up a win over the Swans in Sydney with a 75 point against the Eagles last week where they barely got out of first gear. The Lions are sitting in third with a 7-1 record, boasting the second best percentage in the AFL at 151.4%. The Lions statistical profile stacks up as good as any side in the competition, ranking first in the AFL for scoring (106 points per game) 1st in clearances and 3rd for inside 50’s.
Their defence has improved vastly on previous seasons too, conceding just one score above 90 through the first eight games of the season. Although the injuries to Daniher and McStay are concerning, the Lions play Fremantle in Round Twelve and Melbourne in Round Fifteen, giving them time to get their best side together when they face their biggest games.
The Lions have barely put a foot wrong this season and despite missing Joe Daniher and Dan McStay, Brisbane won’t be too worried about their ability to score. Charlie Cameron (19 goals), Zac Bailey (18), Lincoln McCarthy (10), Cam Rayner (9) and Hugh McCluggage (7 goals) have all hit the scoreboard this season. To highlight the differential in scoring power, Adelaide only have three players who have kicked more than seven goals this season.
Brisbane have won three games in a row against Adelaide by an average margin of 30 points, including a 52 point win at the Adelaide Oval last year. Brisbane’s seven wins this season have come by an average winning margin of 42 points, with their last three games seeing an average winning margin of 50 points. The Crows have an average losing margin of 30 points this season, including three losses above 40 points, with two of those occurring in their last two games.
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Jordan Dawson has had an excellent start to his time at Adelaide, picking up a season high 30 disposals last week. Dawson has averaged 25 disposals per game across his last seven games, with disposal returns of 28, 24, 27, 24, 18, 24 and 30 disposals. Coming up against an in-form Brisbane side, there should be plenty of ball for Dawson to win across half back.
Continuing his remarkable transformation into one of the premier midfielders in the AFL after being delisted by Brisbane in 2019, Ben Keays is having an outstanding season in 2022. Keays is averaging 30 disposals per game and had a quality performance against his former side last season, picking up 28 disposals. Keays has hit the 30 disposal mark in four of his eight games this season, and has not been held to under 25 disposals in a game thus far. Keays averages 31 disposals per game in the Crows five losses this season, which shows he can still find the footy even when Adelaide are struggling.
To round out our prop bets, we’re going with a value pick in Hugh McCluggage to kick 2+ goals. McCluggage kicked a career high four goals against West Coast last week, and has shown an ability to consistently get shots on goal despite playing in the midfield. McCluggage has had eight scoring shots from his last three games against Adelaide and the Crows have conceded plenty of goals to midfielders in their last three games. Patrick Cripps (2), Stephen Coniglio (3), Lachie Whitfield (3) and Adam Treloar (2) have all kicked multiple goals against Adelaide in the last three weeks.
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