The first fixture on Saturday night football is the second QClash of the season as Brisbane Lions hosts the Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba. The Suns need to win to keep in the top eight race, while the Lions need to win to remain inside the top four!
Jack Tobin has you covered with his preview for the QClash, and head to our AFL Round 19 tips page for coverage on every game in this round from the Before You Bet team.
Brisbane vs Gold Coast Preview & Betting Tips
Gabba, Saturday 23rd July, 7:10pm AEST
Brisbane
Injuries: Keidean Coleman
Brisbane’s injury list is down to just one player with Keidean Coleman out with a hamstring injury. Marcus Adams, Dayne Zorko, Daniel Rich, Jarrod Berry and Oscar McInerney all return to the side this week, with Jaxon Payne, Darcy Fort, Nakia Cockatoo and Harry Sharp all omitted.
The Lions got back on the winners list with a convincing 40 point win over the Giants in the nation’s capital in Round 18. Hugh McCluggage led the way with 29 disposals and 4 goals, while Rhys Mathieson impressed in his first game of the season with 23 disposals and 10 clearances.
Brisbane are the number one ranked scoring team in the competition this season, averaging 99 points per game. With their full strength side featuring their preferred key structure of Daniher, Hipwood, McStay and McInerney, the Lions should be able to create plenty of scoring opportunities against a Gold Coast side that conceded 33 scoring shots last week.
Gold Coast
Injuries: Alex Davies, Malcolm Rosas, Connor Budarick, Joel Jeffery, Ben King, Will Powell, Bodhi Uwland, Lachie Weller
Stewie Dew has swung the axe this week dropping Sam Day, Jack Bowes, Brayden Fiorini, Oleg Markov and Hewago Oea all omitted after a poor showing against Essendon. Pick 7 from the 2020 Draft Elijah Hollands makes his much awaited debut, with Jy Farrar, Jeremy Sharp and Darcy McPherson coming into the 22.
Gold Coast had a golden opportunity to move to level on points with eight place after Richmond and St Kilda’s losses last week, but put in arguably their worst performance of the season in a 48 point defeat against Essendon. The Bombers kicked 14.19, so the 48 point margin flattered the Suns who were smashed on every key aspect of the game. Gold Coast were -115 disposals, -22 contested possessions, -15 disposals, -5 tackles and -2 clearances.
The Suns need a major response from their midfield this week and if they expose their backline like they did against the Bombers, Brisbane will kick a massive score on Saturday. The third tall forward is a major issue for Gold Coast, Collins and Graham are genuine key defenders, however Ballard and Lukosius are more intercepting players rather than lockdown defenders. With Brisbane possessing three genuine key forwards, it’s an area that the Suns could be in some serious trouble.
Match Prediction
Brisbane have won seven in a row against Gold Coast, with the last six victories coming by margins of 52, 49, 73, 45, 91 and 49 points. The Lions have a 35-3 record in home & away fixtures at the Gabba since the beginning of 2019, and average 103 points per game at home in 2022. The Suns have only kicked a score above 100 points in four of their seventeen games this season.
The attacking capacity of the Lions is simply too strong for a Gold Coast defence that has been hit by injury in the back half of the season. The Suns missed a major opportunity last weekend and it’s going to be a tough ask for them to pick themselves up after their dismal showing. Brisbane will continue their trend of convincing victories over their local rivals.
Brisbane -24.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
Prop Bets
After a slow start to the season by his lofty standards, Touk Miller is putting together another excellent season averaging 28 disposals per game. Despite the Suns only winning one of their last four games, Miller has managed to average 29 disposals per game in the last month. Miller has picked up 26 and 32 disposals in his last two games against the Lions, and will be looking to produce another big performance
Touk Miller 30+ Disposals, $1.80 with Ladbrokes
Conditions look clear in Brisbane on Saturday night, which should be conducive for another high scoring QClash. Five of the last six meetings between the two Queensland clubs have hit over 172.5 total points, with an average total score of 179 points per game across those six matches.
Total Points Over 172.5, $1.88 with Ladbrokes
As touched on earlier, Gold Coast’s lack of quality genuine key defenders is going to benefit Dan McStay. Daniher and Hipwood will likely get matched up by Collins and Graham, meaning McStay will have a big size advantage in his likely matchup with Charlie Ballard. McStay has kicked nine goals in his last three games against the Suns, including two four goal performances.
Dan McStay 2+ Goals, $2.25 with Ladbrokes
