Round 21 might end up being one of the most crucial for the 2022 Brownlow Medal with early season favourite Patrick Cripps suspended for his high contact on Callum Ah Chee. At the time of writing, Carlton are appealing the decision, but it's hard to see his two-week suspension being overturned. The Blues have lost their skipper and their chances of reaching finals are left hanging by a thread with the Bulldogs, Tigers and Saints all breathing down their neck.
Meanwhile at the point end, the Pies kicked off the Dees to move into the top two and become a genuine premiership contender in season 2022.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 21 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 21 Overview
While Patrick Cripps copped a suspension, former Brownlow medalist Lachie Neale will likely pick up Brownlow votes in Round 21 to confirm his favouritism in the 2022 Brownlow Medal betting markets. Christian Petracca is probably the only other contender to be a chance for votes in Round 21. Rory Laird continues his excellent season and will be closing in on the top 10, while Eagles superstar Josh Kennedy retired with a bag of goals and a possible three Brownlow votes.
AFL Round 21 Brownlow Votes
Melbourne 13.11.89 def by Collingwood 15.6.96
Collingwood are the real deal as they knocked off the premiers in yet another thriller! Jamie Elliott was the difference with 4 goals from 13 disposals up forward, with good supply from Jordan De Goey (25 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) and Nick Daicos (31 disposals). The stars for the Dees were influential but didn’t get enough support. Max Gawn (31 disposals, 10 marks, 10 clearances, 27 hitouts), Christian Petracca (36 disposals, 1 goal), Angus Brayshaw (32 disposals, 6 tackles), Jack Viney (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Clayton Oliver (42 disposals, 8 tackles, 14 clearances) were all excellent and definitely chances for votes, but the order of Brownlow votes, given the Pies win, will be a tricky one to decide!
Jamie Elliott - 2
Jordan De Goey - 2
Max Gawn - 1
Christan Petracca - 1
Hawthorn 10.10.70 def Gold Coast 8.15.63
The Hawks did enough to overcome the Suns in Launceston. Jack Gunston was the star with 5 goals from 14 disposals and 8 marks. Jaeger O’Meara (20 disposals, 8 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal), Dylan Moore (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) and Jai Newcombe (27 disposals, 7 marks) were also very good. David Swallow (33 disposals, 6 marks, 7 tackles, 6 clearances), Brandon Ellis (30 disposals, 6 marks) and Elijah Hollands (23 disposals, 9 marks, 2 goals) were best for the Suns.
Jack Gunston - 3
David Swallow - 1
Jaegar O’Meara - 1
Dylan Moore - 1
GWS Giants 14.12.96 def Essendon 10.9.69
The Giants brought the intensity to the contest this week and got the result over the Dons. Lachie Whitfield was back to his best off half-back with 29 disposals, 8 marks and 1 goal, while Jesse Hogan was a force up forward with 4 goals from 17 disposals and 12 marks. Harry Perryman collected 23 disposals and 1 goal while subduing the influence of Zach Merrett while Callan Ward ended 25 disposals, 10 marks and 1 goal. Darcy Parish (28 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) was best for the Dons.
Lachie Whitfield - 2.5
Jesse Hogan - 2.5
Harry Perryman - 1
Western Bulldogs 11.12.78 def by Fremantle 14.11.95
Freo controlled the ball to land a crucial win over the Dogs who must now win their last two matches of the season to make finals. Luke Ryan (32 disposals, 15 marks), Caleb Serong (24 disposals, 8 clearances) and Rory Lobb (4 goals, 7 disposals, 7 marks) were best for the Dockers who had winners all over the ground. Josh Dunkley (33 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Bailey Smith (30 disposals, 1 goal) tried hard for the Dogs.
Luke Ryan - 3
Caleb Serong - 1.5
Josh Dunkley - 1.5
Geelong 17.8.110 def St Kilda 10.5.65
The Cats flexed their muscle over the Saints with a convincing victory to remain on top of the ladder. The Cats shared the load with Isaac Smith (21 disposals, 7 marks, 3 goals), Sam Menegola (25 disposals, 1 goal), Brandan Parfitt (25 disposals, 6 tackles, 10 clearances) and Max Holmes (24 disposals, 1 goal) solid contributors while Sam De Koning (11 disposals) did a wonderful job of keeping Max King quiet. Brad Crouch (28 disposals, 11 tackles) was best for the Saints in another tricky game for Brownlow votes.
Isaac Smith - 3
Sam Menegola - 1.5
Brandan Parfitt - 1.5
Port Adelaide 10.11.71 def by Richmond 16.13.109
The Tigers landed a huge win in Adelaide to keep their finals chances alive in season 2022. Dion Prestia (32 disposals, 10 clearances), Trent Cotchin (31 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances) and Daniel Rioli (25 disposals, 2 goals) won plenty of ball, while Shai Bolton (4 goals, 17 disposals) and Tom Lynch (4 goals, 16 disposals) smashed the scoreboard. Toby Nankervis was also a force in the ruck with 29 disposals, 44 hitouts and 8 clearances. Ollie Wines (32 disposals) and Zak Butters (28 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal) were best for the Power.
Trent Cotchin - 2
Dion Prestia - 2
Shai Bolton - 2
North Melbourne 13.10.88 def by Sydney 18.18.126
The Swans were too good for the Roos who kicked the last three goals of the game to add some respectability to the scoreline. Chad Warner (20 disposals, 6 clearances, 3 goals), Luke Parker (29 disposals, 9 tackles, 7 clearances) and Isaac Heeney (21 disposals, 2 goals) were influential for the Swans. Nick Larkey might be in the votes in a losing effort for his 7 goals, from 11 disposals. Jai Simpkin (31 disposals, 6 ackles, 6 clearances) was also very good for the Roos.
Chad Warner - 3
Nick Larkey - 2
Luke Parker - 0.5
Isaac Heeney - 0.5
Brisbane 17.12.114 def Carlton 12.9.81
The Blues are in freefall in season 2022. After looking finals bound, they are now on the verge of missing completely and, to make matters worse, their skipper Patrick Cripps has been suspended for two weeks. As one of the Brownlow favourites, and one of our main Brownlow betting plays earlier in the season, Cripps’ suspension certainly opens things up at the top of the market. Lachie Neale backers will be feeling pretty happy after he picked up 32 disposals, 9 clearances and 1 goal to again be in the discussion for votes. Zac Bailey (19 disposals, 6 marks, 4 goals), Hugh McLuggage (28 disposals) and Oscar McInerney (19 disposals, 37 hitouts, 8 clearances) were also good for the Lions. Sam Docherty was kept busy for the Blues with 28 disposals and 7 marks.
Lachie Neale - 2.5
Zac Bailey - 2.5
Oscar McInerney - 1
West Coast 13.8.86 def by Adelaide 16.6.102
Josh Kennedy was remarkable in his farewell performance for the Eagles but it wasn’t enough to secure the win against the Crows. Kennedy was fed the ball at every opportunity and delivered with 8 goals from 15 disposals and 8 marks, and will be tough to budge from the three Brownlow votes despite the loss. Rory Laird was the stand out midfielder with 36 disposals, 10 clearances and 2 goals, with support from Jordan Dawson (27 disposals) and Sam Berry (19 disposals, 12 tackles, 8 clearances). Tim Kelly (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) and Shannon Hurn (25 disposals, 7 marks) were also good for the Eagles.
Josh Kennedy - 2.5
Rory Laird - 2.5
Jordan Dawson - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
