NRL Thursday will see the Eels take on the Rabbitohs in a blockbuster match to kick off Round 16 action. Scooby is back with his preview, analysis and NRL betting tips for the match!
Parramatta Eels (3rd) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (7th)
The Eels did what they needed to do in order to win last week 14-nil over the Storm. Although, many pundits were expecting a better performance given the missing stars for their opponents. By their own admission, the execution was below their best and certainly is not their peak as this team continues to move forward. There were some positives; they made 696 post contact metres, 5 linebreaks and controlled possession (51%). Yet, they will need to improve upon the 14 errors, 76% completion rate and having fewer tackles breaks than their opponents (16 v 23).
There were no such issues for the Rabbitohs who were undoubtedly, the best team of the round. They were up 24-nil inside 20 minutes and appeared to be in a different class to the Sea Eagles. By halftime, the 38-nil score line spoke volumes and they kept the pressure on to finish 56-16 winners. The stats also point towards dominance; they had 64% possession, completed at 92% (season high), made 840 post contact metres (season high), 36 tackle breaks (season high), missed just 20 tackles and made only 5 errors. While the Sea Eagles were missing a few players, the performance spoke volumes about where this team is at moving forward. Perhaps, it was the effort the Rabbitohs needed to click into gear with only five regular season games remaining.
The Stats
The Rabbitohs average more points per game than the Eels. They average 24.3 ppg (5th) compared with the Eels 20.8 ppg (8th). However, the Eels have the edge in defence; they concede 11.7 pgg (1st) compared with the Rabbitohs 18.1 ppg (7th). The Eels look to generate their momentum through carrying the ball strongly. They average 674.4 pcm (1st), while the Rabbitohs average 580.5 pcm (8th). Interestingly, these two sides are similar in try assists (average 2.7 – equal 7th) and linebreaks (4.1 – equal 5th). Dating back to Round 19, 2014, the results have been split 50/50 and the home side has a 50% strike rate in these matches. In that time, the average winning margin sits at 10.5 points, with 3 blow victories by 18, 18 and 20 points, all to the Rabbitohs.
Verdict
It is hard to doubt a team like the Eels that are sitting 3rd in the league and are winning most matches, even the games they are performing poorly in. Fact is, they have been somewhat underwhelming since their Round 9 win over the Knights and since that time, have only scored over 18 points once and average 16 points scored, while allowing an average of 12 points to their opponents. The Rabbitohs are on a four-game winning streak, scoring a host of points in the process. To put things into perspective, these victories have come against teams outside of the Top 8 and the Rabbitohs have only recorded one victory all year against a team inside the Top 8 (Round 1 v Sharks). This rightly has the Rabbitohs as outsiders for this contest but there is doubt when you consider the recent performances of each team. If the Rabbitohs are a team that is aiming to peak at the right time of the year, they are a dangerous team for anyone to face, let alone a team like the Eels. Both teams will be out to make a statement and this shapes as an early preview of what is to come in the final. All things considered, it is hard to go against the Eels but when it comes to making a selection for this game, the smart option is to invest around a tight contest and let the game speak for itself over 80 minutes.
Either Team by 6 points or less
$2.70
