Round 15 of the 2020 NRL season wraps up on Sunday with two matches. First up, we'll see the embattled Bulldogs taking on the Warriors before the Knights will be hoping for a big win against the Cowboys. Scooby is back to preview both matches with his NRL betting tips below!
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (16th) v New Zealand Warriors (12th)
Only the Bulldogs, a team that has played with plenty of heart throughout the year but still sits last on the ladder, could score the most points of their season and still get beat. Unfortunately, it was a 1-point loss to the Tigers after clawing back a 22-6 lead. As usual, they completed well (83%) and were a chance of taking out the game late. An injury to playmaker Foran didn’t help their cause and they will sense that this was a game they let slip away. They will still want to improve upon the 31 missed tackles and 6 linebreaks allowed; yet, other teams who are underperforming on the ladder could do worse than model the behaviour of the Bulldogs. It was a similar story for the Warriors, who also had a chance to upset the Panthers. Eventually, they went down 18-12 with possession and the way their opponents controlled it against them (42%). On top of that, they only completed at 73%, made 12 total errors and missed a massive 42 tackles. Much like their opponents in this game, they too have been playing with heart. With all the challenges that they have faced in 2020, there is a sense that the attitude of this club may have just turned a corner. If it has, this will be a game they will want to perform well in, also keeping alive their finals hopes.
The Stats
Scoring points has been an issue all year for the Bulldogs, with their season average sitting at 13.4 ppg (15th). However since Round 10, they’ve averaged 18.8 ppg with their largest total of the year coming last week. Improvement has also been evident in the Warriors team over this same period. Despite averaging 14.4 ppg, they’ve averaged 16.8 since Round 10. Most other areas like points conceded (Bulldogs 24.4 v Warriors 24.1), completion rate (Bulldogs 78% v Warriors 79%) and missed tackles (Bulldogs 31.9 v Warriors 32.8) are equal. This suggests that the game could be a close contest. The Warriors will look to generate more momentum in the middle; they average 575.2 pcm per game (8th) and 9.6 offloads (5th), compared with the Bulldogs 495.1 pcm (14th) and 8.3 offloads (12th). The Warriors have a shocking record at this ground, a 33% win rate in 2 matches played here.
Verdict
The Bulldogs head into this game as outsiders, but the odds offered suggest that some are giving them a hope of causing an upset. That thought is not a bad one based on the Warriors ‘away’ games this season but the recent form of winning two on the ‘road’ will make the home side nervous. The Bulldogs are a team that makes their opponents work for every point against them and this game should be no different. Yet, there is a noticeable change recently in the Warriors and the self-belief and discipline appears to be back in their game. Assuming that this will continue, it is hard to go past them winning, albeit, by less than 2 converted tries as the Bulldogs fight remains consistent.
Newcastle Knights (6th) v North Queensland Cowboys (14th)
The Knights narrowly escaped from a massive upset against an understrength Sea Eagles outfit in front of their home fans. It wasn’t until the 72nd minute when the Knights sealed a 26-24 victory after being down 12-nil after just 10 minutes. After clawing their way back, they soon gave up a 20-12 lead with less than 25 minutes to go in the contest. With an 80% completion rate, 12 offloads and just 25 missed tackles, the Knights took care of the little things in their performance that allowed them to capture victory. Still, it left questions unanswered about the true potential of this side. The Cowboys suffered a heart-breaking 1-point loss to the Rabbitohs at home, failing to close down their opponents momentum as they drove towards the posts. As disappointing as the finish was, they had numerous chances to win the match; with 57% possession, they completed at 79%, missed just 14 tackles and committed 10 errors. If they couldn’t win with statistics in their favour and a home ground advantage, the task ahead of them in this game appears very difficult.
The Stats
Things are not looking good from the outset for the Cowboys; they have a 33% winning record at this venue in 18 attempts. They will hope that recent history is on their side; they have won 7 out of the past 10 meetings between these two sides dating back to Round 24, 2013 (of the 3 losses, two came at this venue). As for this season, the Knights execute at a superior level to the Cowboys. They complete at 80.9% (2nd), average 10.1 errors (14th), generate 648.3 pcm (2nd) and 1,850.5m per game (3rd). This is well ahead of their opponents, with the Cowboys having a 76.8% (13th), committing 11 errors (8th), 582.4 pcm (7th) and 1,655m (10th).
Verdict
The Cowboys are massive outsiders for this contest and rightly so. Their effort in the closing minutes against the Rabbitohs suggests that the ‘win at all costs’ mentality has deserted this playing group. The fact that they didn’t have a voice dictating to them how to close out the match is even more alarming. The Knights are hardly a team to jump into with confidence though; their performances recently have been underwhelming and the narrow victory against an understrength Manly outfit is further emphasising the struggles that this team is experiencing in the search for consistency. That being said, you cannot overlook the fact that this is the third consecutive week with the ‘new’ halves combination which includes Blake Green (no statistic can accurately depict his inclusion). This factor will impact positively on the home side and, as the confidence continues to develop, should mean a comfortable victory to the Knights in this game.
