What a cracking game we have to kick off Round 15 of the NRL this Thursday night as the Eels clash with the Storm. Two powerhouses of the competition, two premiership contenders, going at it at Bankwest Stadium with the winner well setup for the home ground advantage come finals time. Scooby is back with his NRL betting tips for the Eels vs Storm right here.
Parramatta Eels (3rd) v Melbourne Storm (2nd)
Thursday, 7:50pm (Bankwest Stadium, Sydney)
The Eels were dealt a blow to their chances of winning the Minor Premiership, suffering a 14-12 loss to the Dragons at home. In what posed an emotive game for their opponents, the Eels started the game positively and appeared to be able to control the Dragons attack. That soon changed and they were up against a challenge, behind 10-6 at HT. A try in the second half wasn’t enough, as the Dragons converted two penalties to scrape home. As disappointing as it was, they did well to complete at 80% in poor conditions; unfortunately, that is where the positives stop as they missed 30 tackles, made 14 errors and allowed 4 linebreaks. If they deliver a similar performance against the Storm, they will have minimal chance of finishing the better side.
The Storm sent a message to the rest of the competition that they are not to be forgotten about, downing the Roosters 24-6 in dominating fashion. As things went bad to worse for their opponents, the Storm’s momentum continued to roll on. A 14-nil lead was soon extended to 24-nil ten minutes into the second half with the Storm caring little for the Roosters growing injury toll. While this may have contributed to the final score, the Storm were clinical in their execution. They completed at 86% with 52% possession, had 14 total offloads and 6 linebreaks. Even with the absence of two key players, their mentality of ‘next man up’ was on display. No doubt, the Eels will have this in the back of their minds ahead of this clash, crucial to the possibility of home ground advantage come the Finals.
The Stats
The momentum of the Storm continues to roll forward and it shows no signs of letting up; they average 26.7 points per game (1st), well ahead of the Eels 21.3 ppg (8th). On the other side of the ball, the Eels are slightly better, averaging 12.6 ppg on par with Storms 12 ppg. The key for the Eels is the forwards, if they can win the battle there, the Storm may find it difficult to halt them. So far this season, the Eels have averaged 1904.1m per game (1st) and 673.1 post contact metres (1st); on the other hand, the Storm average 1721.3m per game (6th) and 588.9 PCM (5th). The Storm have won 8 out of the past 10 matches against the Eels dating back to 2013. Only 2 matches during that period have been played away against the Eels, with the Storm winning both. Over the 8 wins by the Storm, the average margin is 27.5 points, skewed somewhat by 60, 26, 54 and 32 point victories.
Verdict
The doubters are out again for the Storm, with the Eels heavily favoured ahead of this game by the bookies. Based on the players missing for the Storm, this is no surprise but one cannot help but think that the visitors are continuing to be underestimated. The further loss of Finucane in the middle hurts them but the mentality still remains the same. While the Eels have been winning, there is a sense that their form has been underwhelming since Round 9 win (10-4) over the Knights. Since then, they have been defeated twice (Sea Eagles & Dragons), while recording wins over the Tigers (26-16), Bulldogs (18-16) and Sharks (14-12). This leaves them with an average of 16.3 ppg in attack and 14 ppg defence. While they have experienced difficulties over the season, the Storm would never consistently drop their standards. This is the main reason why they cannot be discredited ahead of this game. They are a quality team that will turn up to play and pressure the Eels at any chance. The Eels will feed off early momentum and, if not able to achieve it, may not have many answers. Of course, this will strongly depend on the flow of the game. Nevertheless, the best option for selecting a winner is to take the (ridiculous) line offered for the Storm.
