Round 13 of the 2020 NRL season kicks off with the Dragons taking on the Roosters in Woolongong on Thursday night. The Roosters will be looking to secure a win to remain in the top four while the Dragons are hoping for an upset to stay in touch with the finals contenders. Here's our Dragons vs Roosters preview and NRL betting tips!
St George Illawarra Dragons (11th) v Sydney Roosters (4th)
Thursday, 7:50pm (WIN Stadium, Woolongong)
The Dragons played the perfect game last week…for 16 minute anyway. At that point, they were up 16-nil and appeared to be a step ahead of their opponents. Unfortunately, this is where their momentum halted, eventually going down 32-24 to the Rabbitohs. The weight of possession (47%) didn’t assist their cause, nor did their 29 missed tackles and 10 errors. The glaring issue was also the inability of their attack to score points when it mattered or limit the Rabbitohs momentum in the middle. If they have a similar mentality this week, they will find themselves on the wrong side of the scoreboard again.
The Roosters are not at their best with injuries impacting their performance. Most recently, they only overcame the Titans 18-12 in a dull contest by their lofty standards. It’s as if the physical pressure of a third successive premiership is also taking its toll. Not that you can write them off just yet. In the win over the Titans, they only created 3 linebreaks, while also having fewer offloads than the Titans (10 vs. 15) and committing 10 errors. They will not tolerate this level execution for too much longer and perhaps, the coaching staff took the opportunity to increase the players' training load ahead of a very winnable game.
It should also be noted that this game will commemorate their traditional ANZAC Day game, in particular the 105th anniversary of the Battle of Lone Pine.
The Stats
These two sides met just over 5 weeks ago and it was the Roosters who ran out 26-12 winners. This is despite the Dragons having a higher completion rate and a large share of possession. The major difference in this game was post contact metres (Roosters 787 v Dragons 586) and average metres per set. The Roosters made roughly 10m per set more than the Dragons, putting them in better field position when it mattered. This may also be why the Dragons concede an average 21 points per game compared with the Roosters 13 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Dragons score just 19 ppg, while the Roosters attack is flying with 27 ppg. This would reflect the difference in linebreaks; the Roosters average 5 per game compared with the Dragons 2.8. The recent history doesn’t read well for the Dragons either; the Roosters have won 7 out of the past 10 meetings dating back to 2015. In that time, the average margin of victory sits at 15.1 points with the lowest victories being by 1, 5 and 10 point (the others have been blowouts). When the Dragons have won, it has only been on ANZAC Day and by an average of 6.7 points; they have won 5 out of the past 9 meetings when played on this day.
Verdict
Despite this game not being played on ANZAC Day, you can be sure that both teams will be full of emotion. The Roosters have lost another player ahead of this game, with halfback Kyle Flanagan ruled out. This allows Lachlan Lam to come into the halves; generally, this is where Luke Keary lifts to another level and produces an impressive, controlling performance. As mentioned a few weeks ago, the Dragons faults were displayed against the Bulldogs; here, they allowed the worst attacking team to score almost double their average points. While they may have a high completion rate, it is their ability to create points which is limited. The tactic of using youngster Tristan Sailor off the bench is even more puzzling (displayed last week against the Rabbitohs). At their best, the Roosters are too strong for the Dragons but there is considerable doubt given their current form. They have struggled in the past 3 weeks, losing to the Raiders and narrowly beating the Warriors and Titans. Perhaps, this is the drop in form that the squad needed to refocus them ahead of the run towards the Finals. The odds are strongly favouring the Roosters and rightly so. They are the preferred selection for this contest. Based on the ‘history’ of this match on this day, a margin of less than 2 converted tries appears to be the way to go.
