The third Masters 1000 event of the 2019 ATP World Tour gets underway this week in Monte Carlo, Monaco in the first major clay court tournament of the season. This prestigious event fields the 56 best men’s tennis players in the world, with the top 16 seeded all seeded and the top eight of those seeds going straight through to the second round via a first round BYE. As usual, we’ve analysed the draw and found the best value bets for a range of markets. Check them out below and good luck to everyone following!
There are a couple of markets that stood out to us here. Obviously, we’ve highlighted our pick for the title, but we’ve also found value in two other markets that we feel are worth some thought. Before we get into our plays, here are the 16 seeded players at Monte Carlo this week.
(1) Novak Djokovic (2) Rafael Nadal (3) Alexander Zverev (4) Dominic Thiem
(5) Kei Nishikori (6) Stefanos Tsitsipas (7) Marin Cilic (8) Karen Khachanov
(9) Borna Coric (10) Daniil Medvedev (11) Marco Cecchinato (12) Nikoloz Basilashvili
(13) Fabio Fognini (15) Denis Shapovalov (16) David Goffin (17) Kyle Edmund
*14th seed Gael Monfils was a late withdrawal from the tournament
Usually the toughest market to predict, except when it’s clay court season. The best clay player of all time in Rafael Nadal ($1.88) is the odds-on favourite to take out his 12thMonte Carlo Masters. He’s won each of the last three titles here and seems the obvious choice to invest in once again.
Another obvious choice and the second favourite in the betting market is current world number one Novak Djokovic ($4.33). However, he’s been unable to replicate his excellent Australian Open form with early exits in his two tournaments since.
Another player fancied at a single figure quote is Dominic Thiem ($8) of Austria. He’s regarded by many as the second-best clay court player in the world on the back of a few strong seasons on the red dirt, with his most notable achievement being the runner up to Nadal at last year’s French Open.
All things considered, we’re more than willing to back Nadal in at near even odds. He may not have shown his best in recent events, but we all know how good he is when push comes to shove on the clay. I’ll take him at anything down to $1.70 here, while having a saver on Dominic Thiem at odds.
Our best bet from the Monte Carlo Masters comes from the Quarter 2 Winner market. While there are quite a few quality players in this quarter with the likes of Karen Khachanov, Nikoloz Basilashvili, and David Goffin, we don’t see how any of them will be able to match it with an in-form Dominic Thiem on clay. Thiem is coming off the best result of his young career at Indian Wells where he was crowned champion after defeating Roger Federer in three close sets. Now on his preferred surface, we have Thiem cruising through his quarter and potentially making it all the way to the final.
Another cheeky market we’re keen to make a play on is for Rafael Nadal to win the tournament without dropping a set. Now, it may seem a bit farfetched at first, but this is certainly not beyond the Spanish maestro. In fact, Nadal completed this feat last year at Monte Carlo where he won all five of his matches without dropping a set. The highest number of games one his opponents achieved in a set against Rafa was four, which was achieved by Grigor Dimitrov in the Semi Final. Further, Rafa would then go on to win the French Open… without dropping a set. All in all, it’s certainly worth a little investment in our view.
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