It was a great bounce back weekend in AFL betting tips for PuntingInDanger and fans in Round 19 as we hit on 5 out of 7 tips. Round 20 gets underway this Friday night with a massive clash between the Cats and Tigers and we take a look at all nine games of the round and give our betting tips below.
AFL Round 20 Betting Tips
Richmond vs Geelong (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
See our full standalone preview for the Friday night blockbuster between Richmond and Geelong here!
Hawthorn vs Essendon (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)
Two old rivals will square off at the MCG on Saturday afternoon as Hawthorn host the Bombers from 1.45pm. The Hawks were dominant over the Dockers at Optus stadium in Round 19, claiming a 59 point win as Brownlow favourite Tom Mitchell was once again dominant. The star midfielder racked up 42 touches and booted two goals in the win while the Hawks forward line was clicking as Luke Breust continued his fantastic season with four goals.
The Bombers also claimed a fantastic win as they downed the struggling Sydney team to move to 11th on the ladder and within just four points of the top eight. It’s a tough run home for the Bombers, who face the Hawks, Tigers and Power in the last four rounds, but they have won their last three and are up and about at the moment.
Tough game to call here. These two teams generally clash in very heated affairs. They last met back in Round 7 of this season at the MCG where the Hawks were 23-point winners, but this Essendon team is a much different team to the one that played that day. Both teams have so much at stake here but I’m siding with the Hawks just marginally.
Brisbane vs North Melbourne (Saturday 2.10pm AEST)
The Kangaroos kept their finals hopes alive last weekend as they downed the Eagles in Ballarat to stay within just four points of the top eight. They currently sit in 10th place and will likely need something special to happen if they want to sneak into the top eight with their current percentage of just 110.6. They do, however, have arguably the easiest run home of any of the contending teams, with games against Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda still to come.
The Kangaroos will be without star midfielder Shaun Higgins this weekend, who is hopefull to miss only one week with his knee injury but they should finally get forward Jarrad Waite back from injury after missing eight games with a knee injury. The Lions were outplayed by the Cats last weekend and will be looking to ride out the 2018 season with a few upset wins. They have one of the better looking injury lists in the league at the moment, as only Tom Cutler and Charlie Cameron look set to miss from their best 22.
Despite their record, Brisbane have actually been really impressive this year. They have remained competitive in a bunch of games and have been strong particularly at the Gabba. However, there’s too much on the line for the Roos this weekend. Betting becomes a touch easier when teams have so much to play for at the end of the year playing against teams that are completely out of the race. I expect the Roos to win this one comfortably.
North Melbourne to win
$1.95
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)
The second showdown of 2018 will take place on Saturday afternoon from Adelaide Oval. After losing to Melbourne on the weekend, Adelaide now look out of the 2018 finals race, currently trailing Geelong in eighth place by eight points. The Power currently sit in fourth place but will need to continue to win games as they lead the Giants in fifth by just two points and a host of teams by four points.
It’s likely we see Adelaide put some players on ice now as their injury list is quite extensive. Mitch McGovern injured his shoulder in last weekend’s game and will likely be given a week even if fit to line-up this weekend. Port Adelaide’s injury list it looking good at the moment and should only be missing Matthew Broadbent, Hamish Hartlett and Todd Marshall from their best 22.
Once again, it seems that the Power have much more to play for heading into this week. They were impressive over the Dogs last weekend and boast one of the best defences in the league. Adelaide have allowed over 80 points in five of their last six games including an 88 point performance to Brisbane a few weeks ago. Port scored 95 in their last game against Adelaide and showdown’s usually make for high scoring affairs.
Port Adelaide OVER 80.5 points
$2.08
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
The Saints were gallant once again on the weekend, going down to the Giants by just 25 points at Spotless Stadium. They have been a much better team in the second half of the season and will look to get their fifth win of the season this weekend against the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium. Star defender Jimmy Webster should return from injury this weekend for the Saints while Logan Austin will also be available.
The Western Bulldogs injury woes continue as they’ll be without a bunch of key players this weekend. It’s almost quicker to name the fit players on their list at the moment rather than the injured players. They were thoroughly outplayed by Port Adelaide on the weekend, going down by 44 points in Ballarat as they managed to kick just 5 goals in the game.
Both teams will be seeing this as a massive opportunity for a win at Etihad where they both play their best footy. Just cant see the Dogs being competitive here with their current injury list. The Saints start as 8.5 point favourites and we like them to cover here.
St Kilda Handicap (-8.5)
$1.92
Sydney vs Collingwood (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
Sydney’s 2018 season has taken a horrible turn over the past five weeks. After sitting pretty in the top four and on a six-game win streak, the Swans have lost four of their past five games and currently sit outside the top eight. They currently trail Geelong in eighth place by just percentage, but with a tough run including games against Collingwood, Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn to come. They are missing some key midfielders at the moment but could get Dan Hannebery, Kieran Jack and Jarrad McVeigh back from injury this weekend.
The Pies were gallant in their loss to the Tigers on the weekend after Jeremy Howe went out of the game with concussion in the first quarter. It was just the second loss in the last 10 games for Collingwood and they currently sit third on the ladder just 8 points behind the Tigers in first place. What’s worrying for the Pies at the moment is their extensive injury list. Like the Dogs, it would be easier to name the healthy players rather than the injured on the Pies list at the moment, which is worrying with some key players coming back for Sydney on Saturday night.
Extremely tough match to call here. Sydney are well and truly out of form at the moment, but this seems like the kind of game where their experienced heads turn up and get them a big win. Pretty much even odds for this one and I’m staying well away from it.
TIP: No Bet
Carlton vs Greater Western Sydney (Sunday 1.10pm AEST)
The Blues captured just their second win of the season in Round 19 as they travelled to Metricon Stadium and defeated the Suns. Patrick Cripps was dominant in the win, racking up 37 touches and booting a goal to further shorten his Brownlow Medal odds. The Blues face their second expansion team in row this weekend but will face a much tougher task this time around against the fifth placed GWS Giants, who have won 7 of their last 8 games and will get star centre half forward Jeremy Cameron back from suspension this weekend.
The Giants are hitting form at the right time of year once again. After a season filled with injury problems, they will now likely be without just Jonathon Patton and Tom Scully from their best 22 moving forward, making them an extremely dangerous prospect. The draw that they had with St Kilda earlier in the season means they wont have to worry about percentage for the rest of the season, and they can put their full focus into getting wins in whatever way they can.
The Blues will be up and about after their win on the weekend but cant see them being competitive against a full strength Giants side this week. Expect the GWS midfield to run rampant here.
Melbourne vs Gold Coast (Sunday 3.20pm AEST)
The Demons had a crucial win over the Crows last weekend to keep their season alive and stay inside the top eight. They currently sit in 6th position but lead 10th and 11th place by just four points. The Demons will be back at the MCG this weekend where they have played well all year and may be benefitted by the return of key players Jack Viney and Michael Hibberd from injury.
Gold Coast suffered a horrific loss to the Blues last weekend to send them to 17th on the ladder. They have now won just one of their last nine games, which was a miraculous upset win over the Swans, but are without a bunch of key players for this weekend’s clash with the Demons.
The Demons start as big 64 points favourites here, which is not a line I feel comfortable taking. Melbourne have scored well at the MCG this season. They have surpassed the 100 point mark more than any other team so far this season at 11 games and we expect them to pile on the points again this weekend.
Total points OVER 174.5
$1.92
West Coast vs Fremantle (Sunday 4.40pm AEST)
The second derby of the weekend will be held on Sunday as the Eagles host the Dockers at Optus Stadium. Both West Coast and Fremantle were disappointing last weekend, going down to North Melbourne and Hawthorn respectively. The Eagles will be desperate to get back on the winners list this weekend to maintain a top two spot on the ladder. They currently sit ahead of Collingwood by just two points but will be without key forward Josh Kennedy this weekend with a shin injury.
Fremantle currently sit in 13th place on the ladder ad are a full four games outside of the eight. With a few key players out with injury at the moment in Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands, it’s likely that we’ll see the Dockers ice some veterans and get some games into some kids in the remaining games of the season.
Derbies are always tough to call because both teams are so fired up, but the Eagles have so much more to play for this weekend. They start as nearly unbackable favourites at just $1.17. I’m picking this one to stay relatively close given it’s a derby and the Eagles to claim the win.
