The 2017 AFL Women's (AFLW) continues this week, but with the AFL preseason starting, the first women's game is on Saturday afternoon instead of Friday night. I won't be covering the men's community series, as I have made my thoughts clear in the past about betting on the AFL preseason. But that just means there is extra time to focus on the women's league, so hopefully can find some winners with my AFLW Round 3 Betting Tips.
AFL Women's Round 3 Betting Tips
GWS Giants vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, February 18 at 12:05pm AEDT)
Round 3 of the 2017 AFL Women's League kicks off on Saturday afternoon in what looks like one of the tougher betting games of the round. The Dockers have underperformed so far, while the Giants showed a bit more ability than we expected against the Blues last week. Despite these results, it's surprising to see the Dockers only giving up a couple of points as slight favourites over the Giants.
Anyone who has followed my AFLW betting tips so far this year will know that I rated the Lions quite highly at the start of the season. That's why I wasn't too surprised when they beat the Dockers last week. However, it seems that Australian betting sites are over-reacting to the Dockers losing to a team they rated as one of the worst just a few weeks ago. I was originally leaning towards taking either team under 15.5 points, but I think the line is off by a few points here, so will be taking a small play on the Dockers to cover.
Tip: Dockers at the line (-2.5) - $1.90 at Sportsbet (0.5 units)
Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies (Saturday, February 18 at 3:35pm AEST)
In Round 1, the bookies gave us free money by setting the total game score lines far too high and it seems in Round 2 they gave us another gift by inflating Brisbane's odds to beat the Dockers. Now, however, everyone is starting to take notice with the Lions starting as 12-point favourites over the Magpies on Saturday.
The Magpies have actually been the biggest surprise for me so far this season. I really thought that would be challenging for the premiership, but so far they have struggled. Moana Hope hasn't been the goal kicker we thought she would be, which can probably be attributed to poor delivery from her team mates. I do think they can turn it around and keep this game against the Lions close or even threaten for a victory. I'm tempted by the Pies at a 12-point line, but think the price for either of the teams to win by 15 or less at Bet365 looks like a solid bet.
Tip: Tri Bet Any Other Result (Either Team 15 or less) - $1.90 at Bet365 (1 unit)
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, February 18 at 7:40pm AEDT)
The once-premiership favourite Bulldogs have lost support with punters on the back of their loss to Adelaide last week. You can now get $9.50 on them to win the comp after they started around the $4 mark. The Demons, meanwhile, bounced back with a strong win against Collingwood last week after a horrible opening round loss to the Lions.
The Western Bulldogs failed to produce the goods in front of their home crowd, but they weren't beaten as easily as the scoreboard suggested. They played some solid football at times, but were out-muscled by Adelaide's forward line. They also had the same amount of scoring shots as their opponents, but kicked just 2 goals, 11. I think this should be a competitive game, but overall I think the Bulldogs outclass the Demons. Taking a little bit of extra value with the Dogs by 1-39 points.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points - $1.80 at Bet365 (1 unit)
Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues (Sunday, February 19 at 11:35 ACDT)
The Crows became the new favourites for the AFL Women's flag after last week, but putting up back-to-back performances against quality opposition will be the real test. Carlton, meanwhile, looked a little shaky against the Giants last week, but still got the win. This one looks like the most interesting game of Round 3.
Ebony Marinoff and Erin Philipps were the standouts in Adelaide's victory last week as they provided most of the movement around the ground, having a combined 28 kicks between them. If they can deliver the ball into the forward 50 like they did against the Bulldogs, they will cause headaches for the Blues. They won't find it easy, however, with Blues like Darcy Vescio once again proving a challenge for opposition backlines. Like the Brisbane v Collingwood game, I think this one is kept close. Note that the under 15.5 bet at other sportsbooks is around the $1.65 mark, but can get $1.90 at Bet365.
Tip: Tri Bet Any Other Result (Either Team 15 of less) - $1.90 at Bet365 (1 unit)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
